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Global warming and the housing bubble


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2006 Jun 30, 4:02am   17,342 views  167 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

The inconvenient truth about human greed, its consequences, and possible remedies.

Is Global Warming real?
Does the Housing Bubble exist?
Is there a Santa Claus?

The truth will set you free (or not).

#housing

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1   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 4:04am  

Perhaps Santa Claus caused both global warming and the housing bubble.

2   Red Whine   2006 Jun 30, 4:16am  

This one is easy:

Is Global Warming real? No.
Does the Housing Bubble exist? No.
Is there a Santa Claus? Yes.

3   HeadSet   2006 Jun 30, 4:58am  

Oh, there is a housing bubble.

I just hope it is more of a toy balloon than an 50,000 mile truck tire.

4   HARM   2006 Jun 30, 5:06am  

Peter P,

Based on what I know to be your probable answers to the other two questions that "housing bubble" is sandwiched between (No & No), I'm guessing this means you now believe the answer to "Does the Housing Bubble exist?" is also "No"?

Am I wrong?

5   DinOR   2006 Jun 30, 5:15am  

Neat story over at Ben's about a couple that "won" HGTV's "dream house"? It's like 6,500 sq. ft and even w/the SUV and 250K in cash ONE year later and the putz is trying to sell it on his own. 7K annually just for insurance. $2,900 for maint. they owe a TON of back taxes. This for a family of THREE mind you! Is this the best use of our resources? This doesn't even make sense when you're drunk for crissakes! Oh and he's going to sell it FSBO at www.Doncruz.net. This is my dream, this is my nightmare.*

Marlon Brando in "Apocalypse Now"*

6   DinOR   2006 Jun 30, 5:31am  

SQT,

One of the gals over on Ben's was familiar with the area and didn't feel that Tyler, TX would have the means to support a price any where's near the asking on this Hindenberg. One correction though, the maint. is $2,900 a MONTH! Quite the "manse" eh?

7   Randy H   2006 Jun 30, 7:19am  

Global Warming: Absolutely Exists; it's all a matter of timeframe of consideration. Eventually the sun will swell up and cause quite a bit of heating. Of course, there is a small possibility that won't happen and instead equally devastating global cooling will ensue.

Santa Claus: Can never be disproven. The same is true of the Easter Bunny, God, and the Magic Sexy-Tattoo Fairy.

The Housing Bubble: Can never really be disproven and/or is an absolute, provable by deductive logic. As with Santa Claus, if the Housing Bubble suddenly "appears" (pops in this case), then it is undeniable. Until such time, non-believers will say that there was no bubble; while believers will say that eventually the bubble will pop, proving it existed. Of course it is ironic that for the Housing Bubble to be proven, it must cease to exist.

Alternatively, one can conjecture that eventually, that as Global Warming (Cooling) is an absolute physical certainty at some future point, then therefore all housing must represent a Grand Housing Bubble.

8   DinOR   2006 Jun 30, 7:36am  

doodler,

Oh and dig this. Mr. Cruz doesn't even own the land this highly polished turd sits on! It's a on a 30 year lease. So what you pay off the mortgage and now you have to renegotiate the for the land? It just makes it that much more ridickle dockle.

Wether or not global warming exists perhaps remains to be seen. If this is the housing industries "highest calling" creating unmanageable, unaffordable, unattractive and soon to be vacant dumps like Tyler, TX then WE ARE asking for trouble! I've heard that diesel fuel has a much higher ignition temp. than gas but I'm not going to run around ankle deep in it with a lit cigar to find out! Sheesh.

9   DinOR   2006 Jun 30, 7:41am  

As to the existence or not of a housing bubble perhaps a change of scenery is in order. What say instead of calling this debacle without compare a "housing bubble" we call it "price gouging". Does that make anyone feel better? Can we agree that "price gouging" exists?

10   tsusiat   2006 Jun 30, 7:45am  

People who don't believe in global warming don't believe their ancestors wore fur and shivered in caves or broiled under palm leaves back in the day.

Face it, there is already objective evidence of extreme weather change in the past.

For freaky sake, look at the mediterannean and the Sahara, they were nothing like they are now 10,000 years ago, and the destruction there was caused during an era of stone/iron age civilizations.

check this out:

The changes in Earth's orbit occurred gradually, however, whereas the evolution of North Africa's climate and vegetation were abrupt. Claussen and his colleagues believe that various feedback mechanisms within Earth's climate system amplified and modified the effects touched off by the orbital changes. By modeling the impact of climate, oceans, and vegetation both separately and in various combinations, the researchers concluded that oceans played only a minor role in the Sahara's desertification.

http://tinyurl.com/j7alg

We just haven't lived long enough yet to see the full repercussions of our actions.

As a domino does tend to topple the next domino in a row, it is obvious that a cascade of interactions means something for the planet as it inevitably warms up - we just can't say with certainty yet what that will be. Arguing this will be benign or good without strong evidence of this is ignorant at best.

For the people who want to ignore major effects in the atmosphere, I suggest walking around with your shirt off all day - these days, that equals a nasty burn.

When I was a kid, and we still had something called ozone in the atmosphere 30 years ago, that wasn't the case.

And that is the change in less than half a lifetime. This is an unprecedented speed of change.

Okay all you materialist/consumptionists, rip me from your comfortable barca loungers in your 5,000 foot pads. Yeah, everything in your world is cool, andyou are untouchable!

11   tsusiat   2006 Jun 30, 7:45am  

Whoops, should have closed the italics in front of the URL.

12   tsusiat   2006 Jun 30, 7:47am  

Dinor,

I looked at dollar volumes last night for the local real estate board. Unadjusted for inflation, they basically doubled in the last 4 years. If that isn't price gouging, I don't know what is.

13   FRIFY   2006 Jun 30, 8:42am  

The life cycle for Sol/our Sun as matched to the main sequence of stars has it getting dramatically hotter over the next Billion Years, evaporating the oceans, ripping the H2 out of the atmosphere and turning the planet into a scortching Venus. 3-4 Billion years after that, the Earth will be swallowed up in the cooling Red Giant Sun.

Thus:

1) Global Warming will happen
2) The Housing Bubble will pop in the next 1 Billion Years unless realtors get even better at polishing turd properties.

That is, unless,

3) Santa Claus comes along and gives us a new Sun.

14   requiem   2006 Jun 30, 8:43am  

</troll>Whee... it's almost like watching a creationism debate. "The scientists are only taking their side for the politics", and "There really really is a controversy".</troll>

I would suggest that the matter not be dismissed simply because (que bias) some people don't think humans are to blame. There are feedback systems in play, and climate change should not be taken lightly. While here in America it's probable that we could survive for the most part (try not to think about that New Orleans fiasco); resource wars are very likely in other regions. So, while the matter will surely work itself out, the body count could be high.

If human actions can affect this, we have as much responsibility to deal with the problem as if an asteroid were headed down our gravity well, because no matter who caused it, the mess will be ours to clean up.

15   astrid   2006 Jun 30, 8:47am  

Global warming exists. The more important question is what will come next. Most of the public still think of global warming statically when it's a complicated and dynamic subject.

It doesn't matter anyways, most people are stupid and shortsighted. Even most of the people who are allegedly "smart" tend to be bad ballparkers of the actual costs and benefits.

It's just one more reason not to buy into California at the currently outrageous price levels.

16   astrid   2006 Jun 30, 8:50am  

Robot Santa is real. And so is Robot Devil. And Robot Hell is in an abandoned amusement park in New Jersey.

17   astrid   2006 Jun 30, 8:58am  

DinOR,

HGTV estimated the total value of its prize package to be under $2M. So this clown thinks his house has gone up 200% in less than a year.

18   plymster   2006 Jun 30, 9:06am  

Global Warming: Exists. There is no debate among the scientific community (as opposed to the hacks employed by Shell, BP, Chevron, Exxon). Furthermore there is a massive body of evidence that manmade greenhouse gases are accellerating/exasperating the situation. Just like ozone depletion by CFCs, we can really cock things up if we don't pay attention. (I don't think there was 30 years of debate on that topic, but then I think corporations were a bit more benign back then).

Housing Bubble: Exists. It's popping like a firecracker all over the US on the Fourth of July. Foreclosures up, inventory up, insurance costs up (a side effect of the very real Global Warming previously mentioned), wages stagnant, sales down. 'Nuff said.

Santa Claus: Exists. I say this for the benefit of the people with 2nd grade educations out there that still believe Global Warming and the Housing Bubble. So park your SUVs in your million dollar McMansions; Santa will save you from the nastiness of reality.

19   plymster   2006 Jun 30, 9:13am  

Whoops. I meant to say:

"I say this for the benefit of the people with 2nd grade educations out there that still believe Global Warming and the Housing Bubble are myths."

Sorry for the error.

20   astrid   2006 Jun 30, 9:52am  

DinOR,

Indeed! It also goes to the definition of a "dream home". HGTV's definition of a dream home is one loaded with bells and whistles, but one that is expensive to maintain and far from the work place of the prize winners. A dream home should be a home that works out financially for people living inside, otherwise it's just a white elephant.

21   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 10:33am  

I’m guessing this means you now believe the answer to “Does the Housing Bubble exist?” is also “No”?

Guess. ;)

22   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 11:31am  

Global Warming: Exists. There is no debate among the scientific community (as opposed to the hacks employed by Shell, BP, Chevron, Exxon).

If you say so...

23   HARM   2006 Jun 30, 11:35am  

When I heard this news I immediately thought of my friends on patrick.net.

Sooo... what are you trying to say SR?

24   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 1:52pm  

It amazes me how people still act like there is a Global Warming debate.

There is really no debate. "Global warming" is unproven.

As someone noted earlier practically all climate scientists not emplyed by Big Oil or their Cohorts say global warming exists and since they spent their careers being snickerd at they have mountains of evidence to back them up.

http://bibletools.org/index.cfm/fuseaction/Library.show/CT/PW/k/737

"There are no experimental data to support the hypothesis that increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing or can be expected to cause catastrophic changes in global temperatures or weather. To the contrary, during the 20 years with the highest carbon dioxide levels, atmospheric temperatures have decreased."

Remember, environmental interest groups are very powerful. They will stop at nothing to implement their vision - a "green" world that they think is "timeless" and beautiful. The fact is that Nature changes anyway.

25   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 1:56pm  

Absolutely Exists; it’s all a matter of timeframe of consideration. Eventually the sun will swell up and cause quite a bit of heating. Of course, there is a small possibility that won’t happen and instead equally devastating global cooling will ensue.

Randy, Global Warming implies certain "keywords":

greenhouse gases, human activities, global climate changes, ...

Perhaps the sun will be destroyed by the aliens before it swells up. ;)

26   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 2:00pm  

Another article to read:

http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=3400

Am I a villain yet? :twisted:

27   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 2:08pm  

amazing how the hockey stick graph mirrors house prices…

See, it is a hoax. ;)

28   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 2:25pm  

Here is another link:

http://www.conservativemonitor.com/books03/44.shtml

It actually talk about State of Fear, which IMO is Crichton's best. :)

hey Peter, in Despot Monthy they had an article about how global warming is actually good and contributes to the GDP. Can’t find the damn link though.

I will not be surprised. Something must be good for some. The housing bubble has been great for the homeowners.

29   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 2:30pm  

The scientific community is heaveily influenced by political correctness.

Science is not as objective as we would like.

30   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 2:34pm  

I am completely unconvinced by a global climate model created for only decades worth of data. This is an extreme form of curve-fitting.

31   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 2:37pm  

hmm so fundamentalist religious types and those more interested in personal wealth have no agenda?

I see scientific fundamentalism as a form of religious fundamentalism.

32   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 2:49pm  

so do I but that doesn’t change the fact that you are using a set of arguments against science grounded in the religious and capitalist camps who would appear to me to have a far weaker hold on physical reality

Science is a religion.

33   astrid   2006 Jun 30, 2:55pm  

Peter P,

You've elevated postmodernism to a whole new level. ;)

34   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 2:57pm  

You’ve elevated postmodernism to a whole new level.

Huh? How was your vacation?

35   Randy H   2006 Jun 30, 3:33pm  

Peter P,

Randy, Global Warming implies certain “keywords”:

greenhouse gases, human activities, global climate changes, …

Perhaps the sun will be destroyed by the aliens before it swells up.

"Global Warming" does imply those things. One of those things is global climate changes which are natural, ie. not related to man's technological activities on the planet.

All naturally caused global warming on the Earth is related to either (a) the sun's active output or (b) the solar disc's former matter which has since become captive to the gravity wells of other hunks of the solar disc's former matter.

Therefore, all global warming of natural origin on the Earth is caused by the Sun.*

So it must be true that the terrestrial warming as caused by the solar death throws of our star fall into the category of "global warming".

*I'm not sure if cosmic radiation emanating from outside our system add any measurable energy to the Earth's system. If so, then perhaps aliens tweaking with nearby stars and/or galaxies are to blame...

36   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 3:45pm  

Randy is always full of wisdom. :)

37   Randy H   2006 Jun 30, 3:49pm  

Bap33,

I think you know that I'm no "lib". Nonetheless, you are wrong about vulcanism versus human derived emissions when it comes to CO2. It's a bit irrelevant of an argument anyway but all that really matters is whether human activities are releasing carbon net of the Earth's natural carbon sinks. Actually, there is no debate about that either. Of course we are doing so by digging up old carbon from deep beneath the crust and releasing it.

The question is whether this matters or not. Denying the physical evidence doesn't do you position any justice and isn't even necessary. You can make a perfectly good argument based upon questioning the reliability of long-term weather & climate models, and the sensitivity of these models to marginal carbon emissions.

I have another question, specifically about your statement It’s a political issue, PERIOD.

Assume you are right and that all global warming has nothing to do with human carbon emissions. But also assume that we eventually determine that a natural catastrophic climate shift -- like an ice age -- is beginning. As an objective, reasonable person, I ask you: HOW DOES THIS CHANGE OUR RESPONSE? Assuming that we want to survive, wouldn't we want to figure out what we can do to survive it, even if that involves making some changes?

It's as if an asteroid were detected heading towards Earth, and somehow the issue got politicized. The "libs" are insisting we must spend trillions of dollars building a rocket to stop it...damn tax and spend commies, while the conservatives insist that humans had nothing to do with causing the problem so life is good. Sorry, I vote that if we can do something to save our collective arses, regardless of politics, then we have an obligation to at least try. Or has willing suicide been ruled no longer a sin in your self-professed moral code?

38   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 3:50pm  

As it gets hotter and the weather worsens I’m sure you’ll have explanations for that as well.

No, not necessarily. There will just be no explanations. Global warming as a theory will not offer satisfactory explanations as well.

Global warming is a political issue.

39   Peter P   2006 Jun 30, 3:56pm  

Sorry, I vote that if we can do something to save our collective arses, regardless of politics, then we have an obligation to at least try.

This I absolutely agree.

And I also think that sensible environmental policies are necessary. It is just that the global warming theory smells a bit fishy.

40   Randy H   2006 Jun 30, 3:59pm  

SQT,

I think you got the point across more clearly and with far fewer words :)

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