patrick.net

E-man, you are right there are opportunities out there in the Bay Area, but they are generally in the very low end. At least 2 of the properties you listed are in bad areas. Even if you get the numbers you are quoting, on a yearly basis you need to factor in higher than average damage and months not being paid considering the tenants you'll be having.

hooch_raider says

Love the thread — thank you. Just a minor point…does anyone have an on point response to any of the questions posed in my post? Most importantly, does anyone have any insight into what the banks are doing with the growing shadow inventory (i.e., the inventory of homes that have been foreclosed on — REOs)? The banks are foreclosing, perhaps at an increasing rate (I don’t know for sure). Why is the housing inventory (in Santa Clara County) shrinking when the number of foreclosed homes is increasing? Any thoughts or all we all genuinely in the dark?

It's quite simple. The banks have all of these non-performing (ie people can't/aren't paying) loans valued on their books at bubble levels. If they foreclose and then sell the home they have to write-down the difference between the original loan amount and the amount the home sold for. They would then have to show huge losses on their books for all these loans and the jig would be up. So for now they are either not foreclosing (letting the homeowner pay the taxes and maintain the home) or if they do foreclose they aren't putting the homes on the market and hoping that the market will "recover" and they can sell the loans for closer to what they loaned on it.

They will continue the above practices until they are forced to sell for cash-flow reasons (cities and counties I assume will be demanding that the banks keep up the homes and pay taxes on them).

I kind of agree with e-man. the only issue is, it's almost imposible to get a house at listing price now. minimum 20-30k increase is almost everywhere...
In bay area, even some 'not so decent zipcode', you would image no one wants those crappy houses. wrong. I've been hunting for an investiment house recently. I use listing agent. houses are sold as is. no contigence but still got outbid by all cash buyer several times. An agent told me there are 3 tiers. all cash, over 50% down and the rest (which includes me).

abc says

An agent told me

And you believe that. How the heck does any realtor know who is paying all cash or financing ?
It surprises me how stupid the public is when dealing with realtors.

abc says

it’s almost imposible to get a house at listing price now. minimum 20-30k increase is almost everywhere…

What is the definition of almost everywhere? Check this thread and please tell us if Burlingame is part of almost everywhere. Forget anything above listed price, some of properties are sitting in market for year after multiple price reductions.

Having said that, there places in Bay Area like East San Jose, East Palo Alto, Redwood City where some of REOs are selling with multiple offers. But I wouldn't say almost everywhere.

they aint making any more land .... better hurry ..... it only goes up ... the "abc's" of housing.

Sobering article from Patrick front page

Foreclosure filings in the U.S. will reach a record for the second consecutive year with 3.9 million notices sent to homeowners in default, RealtyTrac Inc. said.

This year’s filings will surpass 2008’s total of 3.2 million as record unemployment and price erosion batter the housing market, the Irvine, California-based company said.

“We are a long way from a recovery,” John Quigley, economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said in an interview. “You can’t start to see improvement in the housing market until after unemployment peaks.”

P2D2 says

some of properties are sitting in market for year after multiple price reductions.

And AFTER ALL the so called 'multiple offers' were so called presented.

cash ... over asking ... that's all "the banks" are looking at .... better hurry ...

yep .... one's born each and every minute ...

E-man says

I just closed a deal with this RE agent for a SFH in South San Jose on 12/9/09 for $215k, 3beds/ 2baths/2car garage. A nearby home with the same floor plan just sold for $330k. It is currently leased back to the previous owner. The previous owner paid $425k for this home in 2002

Thats about what homes should be selling for, around mid $200Ks...

E-man says

@abc,
Which area are you looking for investment properties? Are you looking at multi-units or SFH? I have identified two duplexes and one triplex that I want to acquire in the coming months, but I might not have enough money to buy all three. If the area you’re looking for matches the identified units, I can refer you to the right RE agent.
I hate RE agents just like most people, but luckily just found a very decent one. He actually looks out for your interest.
I just closed a deal with this RE agent for a SFH in South San Jose on 12/9/09 for $215k, 3beds/ 2baths/2car garage. A nearby home with the same floor plan just sold for $330k. It is currently leased back to the previous owner. The previous owner paid $425k for this home in 2002.

Really??? You did this? Bravo. Was the SFH an REO? What ws the MLS #? I am interested to understand more about where properties like this are located. Also, I would like to understand the process you went through in making the purchase. Finds like this appear very few and far between...understanding (once again) that inventory in Santa Clara County is currently shrinking to ridiculous lows and shadow inventory is growing. Share the good news E-man.

abc says

I kind of agree with e-man. the only issue is, it’s almost imposible to get a house at listing price now. minimum 20-30k increase is almost everywhere…

In bay area, even some ‘not so decent zipcode’, you would image no one wants those crappy houses. wrong. I’ve been hunting for an investiment house recently. I use listing agent. houses are sold as is. no contigence but still got outbid by all cash buyer several times. An agent told me there are 3 tiers. all cash, over 50% down and the rest (which includes me).

...so ask yourself a question what will happen if and when do you think all these cash buyers thin out? If the economy does not get booming and credit does not start flowing in 2 years from now...I wonder how long will the investors keep holding the bag of tied money that does not bring profit..go figure..

E-Man,

Thanks for the information...genuinely appreciated. I am going to call Tomas.

Bap33 says

#1) RE pro’s are liars. They suck. Do not bother asking them anything, they are scum.
#2) The people that contact the bank to try to adjust their payemts are foreclosed on faster than they ones that just stop making payments and stay off the radar.
#3) The entire REO problem would be fixed if the laws about public property (FANNY held houses are public property) were used and the assetts were liquidated in a true public auction. The fact that we are allowing the RE pro’s to controll the REO market is absurd. These are public assetts and should be auctioned in public to the highest bidder … not “marketed” by the REwhores, with a price “fixed” by the fraudsters known as BPO agents. THis system is Fed up — FUBAR — and the REwhores are laughing all the way to the bank.

Can you provide any back-up for #2--that is a pretty big statement to represent as fact. I'm certainly interested as I'm debating what course I will take.

reason for #2 could be that once you contact the bank will actually "run the numbers" look at your finances and decide right then that doing the foreclosure is the better deal for them.

My thoughts on inventory situation is that banks realize that dumping properties on the market depressing prices so they're starting to hold back.
Also there are hardly any regular sales being listed since nobody wants to sell at todays prices unless it's a distressed situation.
Have you noticed that very few nice homes are being listed?
current RE market inventory and prices is controlled by the banks. We could be at a bottom that lasts until inventory of forced sales are worked through.

toothfairy says

Have you noticed that very few nice homes are being listed?

one the option arm's explode in 2010-2012, you'll see lots and lots of nice homes at much much lower prices, they'll all be distressed sales.. wonder why they're all just sitting ducks waiting- why not get rid of them now, instead of waiting til their option arm explodes and their payments double and they really can't afford them, and then the bank forecloses... remember, if you're in CA (or any other state that ate up option arm's) this WILL happen...

crash-olah,
I hope you are right, but when banks like WF are changing these options ARMs into 5-10 year interest only mortgages, are you still confident that this is definitely going to happen in 2010-2012?

camping says

crash-olah,
I hope you are right, but when banks like WF are changing these options ARMs into 5-10 year interest only mortgages, are you still confident that this is definitely going to happen in 2010-2012?

how are they going to do that when nearly (or over) 20% are unemployed, underemployed, or simply don't even qualify for the house they are living in to begin with... I honestly have not heard of this, I've been slacking on my housing research as I've given up on the housing market for the next 5 years... could you please provide an article. Based on your information, I'm still pretty confident that 2010-2012 will produce lots and lots of nice houses at majorly discounted prices from today. also, who in the *bleep* would want a 5-10 year interest only mortgage? is the house really worth every penny you have? let's get real here... and then what happens when they do that 5-10 year int. only?---major crash in 5-10 years? Can we get this bull* over with now, rather than it taking up my entire "young adult" life so that I can buy a house thats affordable... because as of now, I see myself as a renter forever, esp. with all this nonsense

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125728972492326499.html

I agree with what you are saying. It just seems those in charge are doing everything to keep everyone in their homes (even when they put $0 down and have paid less than $0 principal).

camping says

crash-olah,

I hope you are right, but when banks like WF are changing these options ARMs into 5-10 year interest only mortgages, are you still confident that this is definitely going to happen in 2010-2012?

Well, let's remember that these people are currently paying LESS than the interest on their loans. So even converting them to an I/O loan will result in an increase in their monthly payment. So depending on how close to the edge they are that would put them over the top. The job market isn't getting any better and wages aren't going up. Until those things start happening house prices have nowhere to go but down.

grywlfbg says

camping says

crash-olah,
I hope you are right, but when banks like WF are changing these options ARMs into 5-10 year interest only mortgages, are you still confident that this is definitely going to happen in 2010-2012?

Well, let’s remember that these people are currently paying LESS than the interest on their loans. So even converting them to an I/O loan will result in an increase in their monthly payment. So depending on how close to the edge they are that would put them over the top. The job market isn’t getting any better and wages aren’t going up. Until those things start happening house prices have nowhere to go but down.

It's going to be such a slow bleed though. Before, the hope was huge increase in payment (50%-100%) which would cause tons of foreclosures. With interest only conversions, it's going to be a minor jump. The trickle of homes coming to the market will continue. I don't know about your area, but in the South Bay this slow trickle is working to sustain prices (so far). Anything close to reasonable is gobbled up in less than a week. Crash-olah probably has it right...give up for at least 5 years. But that's a long time to wait; particularly if you've been waiting for a while already.

I know two people personally who are more than financially able to make their mortgage who've had their monthly payments reduced. One guy had his mortgage written down preemptively by their mortgage holders simply because he skipped one month of payment. Instead of a 1700 mortgage payment, he now pays 900. The other person I know is now paying 700 instead of 1600 thanks to HAMP, and is now doubling up on her monthly payments, and looking to invest in future properties as rentals.

camping says

It just seems those in charge are doing everything to keep everyone in their homes (even when they put $0 down and have paid less than $0 principal).

I knew this was happening... but can someone please explain WHY banks are reducing the principal balances of some mortgages? I understand they are trying to keep people in their houses... but seriously, rewarding people for borrowing over their heads? Why doesn't the government just stop bailing out the banks, who are bailing out people who obviously have no financial common sense-and START giving out the money to people that actually know what they are doing? -- like renters, who crunched the numbers and knew they couldn't afford...

That would be nice (giving money to people with common sense), but it's not reality. We need to deal with reality, and unfortunately it means giving money to the crooks and the idiots while screwing the savers.

Unless someone have some real data, I just don't think the principle reduction is going to be happening at a large enough scale to make an affect and prop up the prices. The majority of these exploding loans were diced up and packaged. How are they going to rework the loans if the barely know who holds these loans.

Serpentor says

How are they going to rework the loans if the barely know who holds these loans.

FNM and FRE can buy them back from the MBS at face value, and then rework them as they see fit. They're going to need money for this, luckily they've got Bernanke on speed-dial now.

Troy says

Serpentor says

How are they going to rework the loans if the barely know who holds these loans.

FNM and FRE can buy them back from the MBS at face value, and then rework them as they see fit. They’re going to need money for this, luckily they’ve got Bernanke on speed-dial now.

Yeah, that's great for GSE loans. Hell, they'll refiance you at 125% LTV if you're foolish enough to not just walk.

Securities packaged by investment banks are a much bigger problem, both in dollar terms and complexity.

MarkInSF says

Securities packaged by investment banks are a much bigger problem, both in dollar terms and complexity.

I was going to say they can't be ~that~ much bigger since Fannie and Freddie guaranteed about half of outstanding loans, but I guess much of these loans still date from the 90s and are otherwise safer than the non-conforming, alt-A, and junior liens that were the main transgressions allowed to happen this decade.