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Shadow Inventory...What is going on???


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2009 Dec 6, 2:59pm   12,898 views  63 comments

by hooch_raider   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

My wife and I are looking to get into a larger home. We currently rent a very modest size cottage in the south SF Bay Area. While we think we will end up finding a new rental, we thought we would give buying a shot. You never know, right?

Well, over the last several weeks every single real estate professional we have talked with, including a mortgage broker, has commented that no one (i.e., real estate professionals) knows what the banks are doing with the growing "shadow inventory". Because four different real estate professionals have said that to us in the last week, it really hit home. If the people whose business is to sell real estate don't know what is going on, then what the hell is going on??? Does anyone have any thoughts? Are banks just holding properties or are they selling them to investors? Why aren't they being released for sale?

A colleague recently suggested that we start contacting banks directly and asking for a list of their REO properites for sale. Are banks receptive to being contacted directly? Has anyone had any luck with this?

Oh, BTW, don't worry that we are out there trying despartely to buy something. We are avid partrick.net readers!! We are simply trying to get a more sophisticated handle on what is going on with the growing inventory of REO properties (NOTE: Over 100 homes in Santa Clara County scheduled to be sold at foreclosure sale this week alone). Any insight is welcome. Thanks.

#housing

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60   Serpentor   2009 Dec 29, 3:36pm  

Unless someone have some real data, I just don't think the principle reduction is going to be happening at a large enough scale to make an affect and prop up the prices. The majority of these exploding loans were diced up and packaged. How are they going to rework the loans if the barely know who holds these loans.

61   Â¥   2009 Dec 29, 3:38pm  

Serpentor says

How are they going to rework the loans if the barely know who holds these loans.

FNM and FRE can buy them back from the MBS at face value, and then rework them as they see fit. They're going to need money for this, luckily they've got Bernanke on speed-dial now.

62   MarkInSF   2009 Dec 29, 5:44pm  

Troy says

Serpentor says

How are they going to rework the loans if the barely know who holds these loans.

FNM and FRE can buy them back from the MBS at face value, and then rework them as they see fit. They’re going to need money for this, luckily they’ve got Bernanke on speed-dial now.

Yeah, that's great for GSE loans. Hell, they'll refiance you at 125% LTV if you're foolish enough to not just walk.

Securities packaged by investment banks are a much bigger problem, both in dollar terms and complexity.

63   Â¥   2009 Dec 29, 8:24pm  

MarkInSF says

Securities packaged by investment banks are a much bigger problem, both in dollar terms and complexity.

I was going to say they can't be ~that~ much bigger since Fannie and Freddie guaranteed about half of outstanding loans, but I guess much of these loans still date from the 90s and are otherwise safer than the non-conforming, alt-A, and junior liens that were the main transgressions allowed to happen this decade.

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