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2007 Mar 11, 9:54am   9,499 views  52 comments

by astrid   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

This is a creative writing thread. All posts should be treated as entertainment and do not constitute advice.

Every post here (except for for this one) will answer the previous post's question and ask one new question. You can also post on other topics IN ADDITION to the one answer and one question format.

Sample Q: Dear JBR: Help! My mortgage payment just jumped from $2,000/month to $6,000/month, what should I do? -- Dangerously ARMed

Sample A: You should sell blood. And bury ten St. Joseph statutes. And eat lots of ramen.

Q: Dear JBR: My wife just quit her receptionist position to sell Amway products. How do I deduct for home office space? -- Deduction Minded

#housing

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1   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Mar 11, 11:07am  

A: This year.

Q: Why should young Americans of all races including Asian-Americans, work hard to get an engineering degree instead of partying through college since the engineering graduate will face having the salary rug pulled out from under them by the H-1 program?

2   Allah   2007 Mar 11, 11:32am  

Q: Why should young Americans of all races including Asian-Americans, work hard to get an engineering degree instead of partying through college since the engineering graduate will face having the salary rug pulled out from under them by the H-1 program?

A: They shouldn't and statistics show that fewer students are getting into engineering than in previous years. If you are learning engineering because you really have a strong passion to learn it, then it shouldn't be a deterent.

Q: What is wrong with these people?

3   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Mar 11, 11:38am  

A: What is wrong with these people is that they are mad. Things aren't working out for them like in Revenge of the Nerds or the Sandy Frink character in Romy and Michelle's High School Reunion. So they are mad. Hopefully they don't crack like Richard Wade Farley did.

Q: How crowded and unpleasant will Cupertino have to get before the H-1 people decide to settle down somewhere else?

4   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 11:42am  

A: No such thing. Crowded and unpleasant just means Cupertino is really really prime.

Q: What came first? Granite countertops or the housing bubble?

5   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 11, 11:48am  

A: Granite countertops were around for a long time. The fact that they're in every house these days is because of the bubble. The "Slap in granite countertops and add 50K to your asking price" days are ending.

Q: Is it a good idea to stop reading this blog for, oh, say 9-12 months as part of a "avoid everything to do with housing right now, cause it just makes me feel sick"?

6   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 12:04pm  

A: No. If you stopped reading patrick.net, you would still think about the housing bubble, and you would have no catharsis at all. You might spend a lot of time huddled in a fetal position while your neighbors puzzle why their house won't sell for $150,000 more than last year. patrick.net is a much better alternative.

Q: I have a 2/28 option ARM that will reset from 2% to 6.75% next month. The fools on patrick.net think that the value of my $1.1M house has dropped 10%, meaning that I'm, uh, maybe like (punches on calculator) $110,000 underwater. Holy s---, are you people nuts?!? No way! My home is in a PRIME SCHOOL DISTRICT! Just wait for the spring! Anyway, I can't afford the full payment (what's this "ammertizing" thing again?). Any chance you guys could get me into a no doc, stated income, pick-a-payment loan for 103% so I can take care of the refinancing costs, too?

7   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 12:36pm  

A: I can't help you but do check your email SPAM folder.

Q: What is the ideal bathroom size?

(Allah, I'm just kind of freaked out by women who would post pictures of their engorged belly for all the world to see. I suppose it is a boon for pregnancy fetishists.)

8   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Mar 11, 12:45pm  

A: (If you own your home), the ideal bathroom is the same size as the bathrooms in other homes in your neighborhood. The value of the home is based on the value of the land. Not the bathroom.

Q: Are you envious of those expectant mothers?

9   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 11, 12:46pm  

A: According to top East Bay architect Ronald McHamburgler of Danville, CA a home should have two bathrooms per bedroom with a minimum size of 10’x12’ (next to the servants quarters). Both bathrooms (his & her) in the master suite should be at least 20’x20’ (not counting the square footage of the sauna and should be larger if they have a have wood burning fireplace).

Q: I live near a super rich lady who has had a lot of plastic surgery. Things are usually quiet in the neighborhood since she is usually at her job on the east coast (she works in the same building as a richer lady from the neighborhood who has not has as much plastic surgery) but today there are a bunch of crazy ladies in pink out in front of her house making a lot of noise and cops and news trucks are making it hard to get down the street. How can I get the crazy ladies to leave the neighborhood and camp somewhere else (like Crawford, TX)?

10   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 12:47pm  

A: The ideal bathroom has two components: the bath/vanity/shower and the "business" area. The bath area should be at least 150 square feet, with a jetted tub that can comfortably fit two, with a cold water cutout for the champagne bucket. The john itself should be about 25 feet square, separated from the bath proper and heavily ventilated.

Q: If the Bay Area devolves into an end-to-end gangland, who will have the most fortified compound--Larry Ellison or the geniuses at Google?

11   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 12:48pm  

LOL. Three question stack... nice.

12   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Mar 11, 12:52pm  

A: Wait till they are willing to have intimate relations with you in exchange for food.

Q: If you are in the Bay Area and they are of the same gender as you, you could probably still have intimate relations with them, if you wanted to. Where else in the world could you have such possibilities?

13   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 1:00pm  

"Q: Are you envious of those expectant mothers?"

Yes. I've always wanted a little bundle of parasitic joy parked in my belly for about 9 months.

"Q: I live near a super rich lady who has had a lot of plastic surgery. Things are usually quiet in the neighborhood since she is usually at her job on the east coast (she works in the same building as a richer lady from the neighborhood who has not has as much plastic surgery) but today there are a bunch of crazy ladies in pink out in front of her house making a lot of noise and cops and news trucks are making it hard to get down the street. How can I get the crazy ladies to leave the neighborhood and camp somewhere else (like Crawford, TX)?"

A: Three words - fatal facelift accident. Three more words - Congresswomen B Gone.

"Q: If the Bay Area devolves into an end-to-end gangland, who will have the most fortified compound–Larry Ellison or the geniuses at Google?"

A: I hope the Google Boys will be properly protected. I like Google stuff much better than silly ole Oracle databases.

"Q: If you are in the Bay Area and they are of the same gender as you, you could probably still have intimate relations with them, if you wanted to. Where else in the world could you have such possibilities?"

A: All over the world. I myself would recommend the Colorado Spring chapter of Campus Republicans.

14   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 1:04pm  

"Q: Why did this house in prime Palo Alto just drop it’s price by $100K this week? http://tinyurl.com/2gyoq3"

A: The owner took the house out for a dry cleaning last week and it shrunken to 890 sq ft.

Q: What will be the hot post-real estate career of 2010?

15   Glen   2007 Mar 11, 1:15pm  

A: Collections

Q: Will the unwinding of the carry trade / subprime collapse / bubble implosion lead to a new great depression?

16   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Mar 11, 1:23pm  

A: (Will the unwinding of the carry trade / subprime collapse / bubble implosion lead to a new great depression?) - Yes, soon.

Q: When this happens, who will suffer more: people in the U.S.A, or people in China?

17   Doug H   2007 Mar 11, 1:32pm  

A: People in China, but who cares what happens to them anyway.
Q: Who killed Hoffa?

18   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 1:39pm  

"Q. Are you allowed to neuter close relatives who insist on buying this year, in order to prune back the stupid branch of your family tree?"

A: Sadly no. If the stupid branch doesn't die off, you may have to move away from the tree to survive.

Q: Doug H.'s question.

19   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 1:39pm  

Q. Are you allowed to neuter close relatives who insist on buying this year, in order to prune back the stupid branch of your family tree?

A: No. What are they going to eat during the New Depression?

Q: Who killed Hoffa?

A: I killed Hoffa. But my Plausible Deniability-meter gives you a 0.002% chance of ever learning why.

Q: What is the probability, expressed in sigma, that our next President will be someone fiscally conservative but socially liberal?

20   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 1:45pm  

A: (Our next President will be someone fiscally conservative but socially liberal) = (1/ chance a bill introduced to change the name of California to Mexifornia ). Don't try to solve for it, doing so would cause the universe to collapse upon itself and turn into something even stranger than it already is.

Q: What is going to be Putin's next exotic radioactive poison of choice?

21   Allah   2007 Mar 11, 1:49pm  

A: People in China, but who cares what happens to them anyway.
Q: Who killed Hoffa?

A: No one; Hoffa is alive and well and lives next door to me.

Q: Peter Shiff believes that China will be better off and that their standard of living will rise while ours falls; why do others think differently?

22   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 1:57pm  

Q: Peter Shiff believes that China will be better off and that their standard of living will rise while ours falls; why do others think differently?

A: Well, my standard of living will be okay because I'm in a prime area. The rest of you guys are pretty much screwed, though.

Q: If Steven Hawking was commenting on the real estate bubble, what would he say?

23   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Mar 11, 2:04pm  

A; It wouldn't matter, because we would not be able to understand him.

Q: Why is "keeping face" so important to some people?

24   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 2:11pm  

A: Because your reputation is the only thing that really outlives you.

Q: How concerned is Greenspan about his place in history right now?

25   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 2:16pm  

A: “Face” is important to all people. Getting, giving, and saving.

Bap, I think you're thinking of head, not face.

Q: What came first, the overpriced-stucco-wrapped-crap-box or the 0% down, 120% ARM, no doc, stated loan, given to Jose’ the landscaper??

A: The overpriced stucco wrapped crap box. It's from 1932! :) But that just means it's vintage and retro...

Q: How would Darth Vader correct the housing bubble, assuming he wasn't allowed to vaporize California?

26   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 11, 2:22pm  

A: Darth wouldn't correct it. He always need more storm troopers who can't predict what's gonna happen if they try and take on Yoda. The bubble is his way of identifying candidates and will offer 'housing benefits' to anybody who joins up starting in 2008.

Q: How hot does it have to get before living in an apartment with no AC drive a person to buying a house with AC?

27   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Mar 11, 2:29pm  

A: (How hot does it have to get before living in an apartment with no AC drive a person to buying a house with AC?)

It is an irrelevant question. The renter can find another rental that has AC, or else the renter can purchase a window unit.

Q: When will people quit using reasons like that as excuses to rationalize buying overpriced homes?

28   StuckInBA   2007 Mar 11, 2:35pm  

Q: When will people quit using reasons like that as excuses to rationalize buying overpriced homes?

A: Never. Because you cannot put a price on the intangibles associated with owning a house. If they rally think it's overpriced, they wouldn't buy it. Every buyer somehow always rationalizes the decision.

Q: When will MSM debunk the "median price gains" ?

29   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 3:01pm  

A: When their readers can tell the difference between Median and Average. Which is just a really indirect way of saying "never".

Q: How long will it take before someone in MSM realizes that when the average price is going up, but volume is way down, that it actually means the normal end of market has stagnated? How long until MSM "journalists" start doing square footage comparisons to determine YoY gain/loss?

Bonus Q: Who will be the first mid-sized or large homebuilder to go belly-up in the bursting bubble?

30   DaBoss   2007 Mar 11, 3:35pm  

“Q: Why did this house in prime Palo Alto just drop it’s price by $100K this week? http://tinyurl.com/2gyoq3″

~ anyone recall when a 800 sq bunghole in PA sold for 400K in 1999.
it made the local nightly news. Yes even in 1999 we had a bubble.
That 800K home really is *ucked up story. Even a 50% correction is
not enough to get to back to fundementals.... LOL

31   DaBoss   2007 Mar 11, 3:37pm  

"Never. Because you cannot put a price on the intangibles associated with owning a house. "

That so reminds me of the clicks per page from the dot.com era. Intangibles become worthless overnight.

32   ozajh   2007 Mar 11, 4:13pm  

Q. What's the February median YOY price change in the next DQ release for the Bay Area? (Due out this week...)

A. Less than the January change.

Q. Given that the unadjusted sales volumes for March traditionally show a big jump from February, AND that subprime just tightened, will the adjusted sales volumes for this March show the lowest number for several years?

(Supplementary Q. Will the NAR fiddle the seasonal adjustment factor for March?)

33   e   2007 Mar 11, 4:20pm  

A. Maybe. But for sure, bad things are to come after March.

The WSJ is now hyping that buying a home might not be a good investment. Check out this piece:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117329581356629863.html?mod=todays_us_the_journal_report

Why Your Home Isn't the Investment You Think It Is

Unfortunately for both groups, however, houses are not very good investments. For the grasshoppers, there's nothing quite as stupid as paying off your 2002 trip to Orlando in 2032, when you finally settle up your refinanced "cash out" 30-year mortgage. And for the ants, economic studies have demonstrated over and over that houses (1) cost more than most people make when they sell and (2) rarely match the long-term returns of stocks or other investments.

And that's doubly true today, with much of the U.S. well into a real-estate recession. It's unlikely that homeowners in once-booming areas will see a return of skyrocketing prices anytime soon.

"Real-estate investments suffer serious and sometimes prolonged downturns," writes economist W. Van Harlow in a new study of home equity and retirement from the Fidelity Research Institute in Boston. "A real-estate 'bust' could be quite damaging to an investor nearing retirement who relied too heavily on home equity."

It may be late for a lot of homeowners to read this, but here it goes anyway: It's risky and bad planning to have too much of your net worth in your principal residence. No prudent stock-market player would put 60% or 70% of a portfolio in just one stock, but millions will hold that much or more of their total net worth in just one house.

Food for thought:
• If you bought a house in Los Angeles in 1990, just as the real-estate market turned downward, you would have had to wait a decade for your home's value to return to what you paid.

• If you bought in Rochester, N.Y., in 1980, you would have seen only a mediocre 4% annual growth for the next 25 years.

• If you bought in Dallas in 1986, as the oil boom went bust, your home wouldn't have appreciated at all before 1998.

Q. Why does the WSJ hate our freedom?

34   ozajh   2007 Mar 11, 9:21pm  

Meek JBR,

A1. The 2 HaHa household could look for the longest lease they can swing in an appropriate neighbourhood. Then save/invest like crazy while renting. Perhaps they could even hedge in the true sense of the word by buying (even if prices are at a local top) in a much cheaper area where they could handle living if the printing presses really reward the FB's in BA.

NIA, but I am looking very hard at this option myself (I live in Australia).

A2. Housing is literally getting less liquid by the week, based on sales statistics, and even if it weren't you can have general liquidity (= availability of money) without necessarily having liquidity in a given sector.

To pick an example from 30-odd years ago in Australia. I can remember when the (government mandated) maximum interest rate chargeable on motrgages from savings banks was less than the inflation rate. There was plenty of liquidity for things like business/personal/car loans and credit cards, but mortgage money was literally rationed and depended on your savings record with a specific bank.

Q. Are there any tricks that the government or the finance industry could pull to keep the party going without penalising the innocent/thrifty/foresighted. (Offhand I can only think of one, and that may well be politically impossible as it would involve some loss of sovereignty.)

35   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 10:30pm  

"Q. Are there any tricks that the government or the finance industry could pull to keep the party going without penalising the innocent/thrifty/foresighted. (Offhand I can only think of one, and that may well be politically impossible as it would involve some loss of sovereignty.) "

A: Maybe. But I doubt the Chinese would pay much for American wage slaves, since they're so cheap...

36   SFWoman   2007 Mar 11, 11:18pm  

newsfreak,

A. Yes, gas will hit $4.00/gal. I guess you and I will have to drive our Hummers a little less.

Q. Why do people like Corian?

37   SFWoman   2007 Mar 12, 2:07am  

PAR,

A. The Chron/Merc will run the article when the VP's office approves it.

Q. Does the Halliburton move to Dubai mean that they are closing their Tehran office, which they used to sell nuclear technology materials to Iran even during the US embargo and were recently using for gas/oil services, permanently as it will no longer be needed? http://tinyurl.com/2o8z6u

38   Bruce   2007 Mar 12, 2:32am  

A. Not exactly. They will announce a new subsidiary, Root-Halliburton-Sunni, at the Tehran address.

Q. Did Ivy Zelman at Credit Suisse just say 40% of the mortgage market was currently at risk?

39   SFWoman   2007 Mar 12, 2:46am  

Bruce,

What Ivy said is:
"We believe that 40% of the market (share of subprime and Alt-A) is at risk of significant fallout from tightening credit and increased regulatory scrutiny. In particular, we believe the most pressing areas of concern should be stated income (49% of originations), high CLTV/piggyback (39%), and interest only/negative amortizing loans (23%). The proliferation of these exotic mortgage products has been disproportionately weighted to former hotbeds such as California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, which have accounted for the lion share of builder profits."

Q. What will happen to the housing in exurbs where the market is collapsing (Sacramento area) as opposed to what will happen when the crash becomes severe in SF? Will sort-of-gentrifying, marginally slummy neighborhoods revert, or will the people who were 'brave' enough to spend $700,000 on a house in neighborhoods such as the Excelsior stand tough, and claim their neighborhood? Will there be large subdivisions in Sacramento filled with renters, or will the houses simply sell for less and become neighborhoods filled with less financially stressed people?

40   HARM   2007 Mar 12, 3:03am  

Q. Are there any tricks that the government or the finance industry could pull to keep the party going without penalising the innocent/thrifty/foresighted. (Offhand I can only think of one, and that may well be politically impossible as it would involve some loss of sovereignty.)

Hell, no! Penalizing the innocent/thrifty/foresighted is precisely what the REIC is all about. If you aren't already spending more than you make on crap, like most good, patriotic Uh-merikans, then clearly you are in the "hate Uh-merika"/terrorist sympathizer camp. Please refer to this thread for your best options.

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