patrick.net

"if no-down is your requirement, then you’d better get your foot in before the door is slammed."

Yipe! It sounds like you just gave Reators their next pitch:

"Better buy now, even as prices are falling. Why? Because if you delay, loan tightening will shut you out forever!"

A cat brush.

Cool. We have several brushes but one cat is very picky.

SP, certain types of luck tend to stick around, unless a person throws them away.

Because if you delay, loan tightening will shut you out forever!

LOL!

British "Estate Agents" have been making due with 1% commissions for some time now. Full service also, including ads and driving around buyers.

SP Says:
I have a colleague who was at Sun from ‘95 to ‘98, then at Yahoo from ‘98 to ‘04 and now at Google since ‘04, just pre-IPO. I am keeping a very close eye on where she goes next, so I can follow - and am hoping her luck holds for one more move.

I would skip your friend and follow where this guys is going... "Midas Man"
He is miles ahead of everone. The rest of the crue arnt bad either

http://www.sequoiacap.com/people/michael-moritz/

We have several brushes but one cat is very picky.

Georgie is a very crabby tabby, she looks just like the cat in the picture above. Once the brush comes out, she auto-purrs. I did not know that auto-purr* was possible.

*auto-purr: spontaneous purring without actual contact from human slave.

RE: British “Estate Agents”

Even those with double-oh designations?

Headset,

if you have gone through the early 90s when housing bottomed, you would not have said with such sarcasm, because unless you have a big down payment, you wouldn't be able to take advantage of the bottom pricing at all. Banks require at least 20% dp, sometimes 25%, stock options were NOT counted as a part of dp, although in 88, 89 they were.

So I repeat again, if you don't think you can come up with at least 20% dp when the market hits the bottom, you'd better buy before that happens. The market hit the bottom primarily because cheap money was not available. When money became expensive, you had to have money to borrow.

Peter P Says:

> What is the best way to remove loose
> fur from a cat?

Try a black fleece coat or a black cashmere blazer.

Every time I wear anything black to a girl’s apartment with a cat I sure that I leave with all the cats loose fur…

Surfer-X,

Man, you make cat brushing sound soooooo dirty.

The market hit the bottom primarily because cheap money was not available. When money became expensive, you had to have money to borrow.

I think the market goes towards the bottom because cheap money becomes increasingly unavailable. Market stays in the bottom because people anticipate more price drops. Right before the market emerges from the bottom, liquidity tends to be improving.

I could be wrong.

Even those with double-oh designations?

Are you referring to 007 or "OO"(OwnerOccupier)?

@astrid, Georgie also likes it when you very firmly spank right by the tail hinge (tail attachment point). I have tested this in the field on a one "Mr. Paws" and so far it's thumbs up, note: Mr. Paws is polydactyl and as such has thumbs and represents the next step in cat evolution.

Are you referring to 007 or “OO”(OwnerOccupier)?

I was under the impression that OO was 007.

OO-

My target is is Milpitas/North San Jose.

Why? Easy commute to South San Jose, Fremont, Mt View, Santa Clara, east bay or where ever my next gig may be. Milpitas is not great but thats OK! Lots of Pho resturants.

I dont care about schools. Havent seen LT any hot day/night spots since there aint none in SB. All of that is up in the City or on the Beach on weekends anyway.

Money is not the problem for me its the RE fraud that so widespread and thick in the valley. So much of the fraud is covered in "Inflation Talk by Realtors" that it makes no sense for people who been here like me.

Every time I wear anything black to a girl’s apartment with a cat I sure that I leave with all the cats loose fur…

The word "all" is highly inaccurate.

You will attract A TON of cat hair. But any cat owner can tell you that loose fur is inexhaustible.

But any cat owner can tell you that loose fur is inexhaustible.

During the season change, winter to summer, Georgie sheds approximately 3.8 KFE's* worth of fur a day.

*Kitten fur equivelent

"stock options were NOT counted as a part of dp"

Your SO right, they cant because they are unregistered with the SEC and NASD. How realtors and mortgage brokers were doing that in 1999 was unbelievable.. It was just beyond illegal regarding SEC and corporate by laws.

Maybe getting into Sun from school was a bit of luck, but after that it was primarily the quality of work that led to referrals and offers.

Timing is very important. I do not like to discount the importance of hard work but decisions are quite often more impactful than actions.

OO said:

4- You will not see any meaningful increase in the foreclosure inventory in desirable locations until you see some really bad jobs numbers.

(in 'Ace Ventura' voice): Oh reaaallly.....

L A Times, April 17, 2007:
Foreclosure pace nears decade high - The state's increase could soon pull down home prices and even bring a recession, some economists say.

I believe we could be on the verge of the first housing-led recession in this nation's history. As in, it won't be collapse of Soviet Union/defense industries, or a stock market crash that precedes it.

Housing has basically been close to the "sole provider" for the economy (at least in CA, AZ & FL anyways) for several years now, and the MEW-ATM machine is getting ready to shut down for a good long time:

Got cash?

You will not see any meaningful increase in the foreclosure inventory in desirable locations until you see some really bad jobs numbers.

M&A is on the rise. More M&A than new IPOs. In addition we are still seeing tech price declines for consumer and commercial products.
Beginning in Jan 2007 we capital spending which drives the valley is down,
corporations are spending less on capital. As they said back in the day,
when a Computer Makes sneazes, all his vendors catches a cold.
Chip, Semi Equipment, hardware and software makers start showing losess and employees brace for RIFFS... Not doom and gloom but season adjustment underway in SouthBay.

I am going to sound very naive but being able to buy a house for a reasonable price should be of secondary concern.

We must come up with ways to capitalize on the bubble bust. This should be our primary mission. Not only we need to survive the change, we must thrive on it.

Of all the regulars here you thought least likely to capitulate too early, would Surfer-X be high on that list? He was at the top of mine.

If you think that you can save up $60K in the next 3-5 years, then you probably should hold off. I don’t know about Ventura, but this is just the beginning of the housing bust. It will go much deeper than people expect because when a bubble of this scale deflates, the market will tend to overreact the other way. It doesn’t sound like you and Mrs. X are the quality-of-life buffs who demand a nice home so that she can do some interior deco.

However, the upside of getting in right now is, in the worst scenario, you put nothing down, and can always walk under anti-deficiency protection, while saving some tax in the mean time.

Mr-X,

OO offers some good avice here, and I would add the following:

Low cost basis (price) & strict lending standards generally benefits the borrower far more than high cost basis & easy money.

Why?:
1. You can always refinance your interest rate, but never the principal.
2. Price largely determines your nondeductible property tax & insurance, and of course lower = better.
3. Much less competition --especially from mouth-breathing Howmuchamonth 'tards and Serin clones.

2. Price largely determines your nondeductible property tax & insurance, and of course lower = better.

I thought insurance was based on replacement cost, which is tied to some estimate of current labor cost of $ per square foot to build.

Am I mistaken?

eburbed,

I didn't distinguish between PMI & homeowners insurance here, so you have a point on H.I.

Homeowners insurance usually comes in two flavors: ACV (Actual Cash Value) or Full Replacement Cost. ACV is basically FRC minus wear 'n 'tear & depreciation, so technically, yes, you are correct.

However, one of interesting by-products of the housing bubble has been that the price of labor and raw materials has ALSO skyrocketed. So in that sense, holding off for a while might still benefit you on insurance.

Actually I am not surprised at X's capitulation.

At the risk of offending Mr. X, just speaking from a psychological point of view, "'d say those who express the most aggressive, flamboyant and emotional attitude AGAINST something may actually be the most prone to fall for exactly the same thing. The aggression is just his way of resistance, because deep down inside he is tempted.

Those who are the least likely to capitulate are those who actually don't desire it so much, so price will be the main driver in their decision, not the house itself (which is more about emotion than function). That's why I think a professional like FAB is much less likely to capitulate than end-users like most of us.

HARM,

I expect the building materials to tank big time in by 2009. The inflation of building materials is mainly driven by China, which is in a frenetic building pace wherever you look, the whole China is a huge construction site that dwarfs the building scale of the US in every single way.

However, building activity will be over by 2008 after the Chinese come-out party. But the materials industry takes time to ramp up and wind down, so there will still be a glut of inventory coming out of the system with NO buyers on the other end.

We will be able to pick up some really premium building materials 30 cents on a dollar in 2009.

I'm not planning to capitulate any time soon, no pets and no plan for kids. Want to do a lot of traveling in the next five years. I would like to pick up a nice property to build or a retirement home for my parents though.

Ok, ok. To be fair, if Mr-X got 1997 price + inflation (see his early posts above), then it wouldn't be right to call it "capitulation". He just got a fair price a lot earlier than the rest of us, and kudos to him.

Actually, I'm surprised it happened in mighty Ventura County (aka "Cote Country"), as they have some of the nastiest, pro-Boomer NIMBY anti-development policies imaginable in SCAL. I think it will be *quite* some time before I see any deals close to that in my neck of the woods (Pasadena/San Gabriel Valley), unless I hit the Housing Lotto and find myself an extremely motivated seller with tons of equity.

OO,

My mom just came back from China and she said the high finishes are pretty amazing. Seamless stone for walls, high end stereo equipment (everybody in China seems to be obsessed with high end stereo equipment), marble or teak flooring everywhere.

If that market goes down, gorgeous stone bathrooms for everybody.

high finish = high end finish

If that market goes down, gorgeous stone bathrooms for everybody.

Cool. :)

HARM,

how did San Gabriel valley did in the last downturn? Did it go down much compared to other SCAL neighborhoods?

High end stereo equipment is an obsession of people of a certain (economic and cultural) background.

It is just a way to spend 200K+ on something for show in the living/audio room.

I kept my stereo (a pretty decent one) from 14 years ago.

I am too cheap to get an iPod. I listen to music from the computer CD-ROM drive.

OO,

Actually, I can't really say a whole lot from personal experience, as I was a pup at the time and not in the market (recent college grad). However, I can recall reading a CEPR paper (Dean Baker) that estimated L.A. County prices dipped about 20% in nominal terms, and maybe 35% in real terms during the mid-90s. Don't have the link, but maybe you can still find it on their site.

I distinctly remember the SGV was not immune, however. My mom passed away in '95, and I recall the family could not sell her South Pasadena condo because it had lost so much value from when she bought it (1991), it wiped out her equity and then some. And that was before $0-down, interest-only & neg-am loans.

GC,

Well, at least he's not a Chinese grad student from Shanghai, as initially reported.

The Mainland Chinese upper middle class people I know obsess over high end AV equipment the way American hausfraus obsess over granite countertops.