patrick.net

I've also noticed that not many people bought fireworks to play with. Normally it would be going off all night by multiple groups of people and you can say good bye to sleeping. But they were really paced out as if only 1 group of people were playing. After all, fireworks = money. Still no consumer spending. I'm loving it.

Vain,

It wasn't just the slow action on the night of the 4th. My blue collar East San Jose "not a good neighborhood" (as described by SF Ace, referring to 'not a good neighborhood' and 'hispanic' in the same reference: (http://patrick.net/?p=29172#comment-675728) ) was besides last night, also quiet during the normally loud weeks building up to the 4th.

I never go out of town on the 4th because all of the racket rattles my pets, and it rattles me about a prospect of not being home if a stray bottle rocket goes into the wrong place. Besides the normal weekend getaway places are more crowded and expensive at that time, which makes them less fun.

So usually we stay in town and go to an afternoon movie. The movie theater was packed. Toy Story sold out all the afternoon (and evening) showings at the Eastridge Mall on the 3rd, if you can imagine that. We saw Grown Ups, not exactly a blockbuster, and it was packed too.

People in this blue collar corner are staying in town this year, and not spending on illegal fireworks.

sybrib says

People in this blue collar corner are staying in town this year, and not spending on illegal fireworks

But the movie theaters were packed, right? So, you read into people not buying fireworks, but ignore the packed movie theaters?

tatupo,

We go to the theaters almost every july 4th weekend, normally they're not so packed, and usually there's more blockbuster offerings than this summer.

Seems like, it is trickle down. Instead of going out of town, lotsa folks who normally go out of town on July 4th weekend in normal times, stayed in town and spend less. Interesting, even though the screening rooms were packed or even sold out, the queues at the snack bar were very light.

For those who don't normally spend on going out of town even in normal times, they're spending less on illegal fireworks. It is trickle down.

well my business operates in college education and i can tell you spending is way way way up, every single year like clockwork

Fairfax county VA is notorious for traffic.

Today, what traffic? Where's those BBQ folks? What fireworks?

It is like a day before thanksgiving. Queitest 4th of July, ever!

Maybe it's the temperature. Arrounds 100F. Summer heat advisory is on.

surfingerman,

is your business buffered by student loan money or PLUS money or GI bill money?

It was pretty quiet here in North Fremont with the exception of a few small fireworks being discharged. Nice change because my dog was not nervous.

central valley had TONS of illegal fireworks but almost NONE of the safe-sane ones. The day after normally sees all of the residue in the streets, and I feel that is a good way to gauge the safe-sane activity in my area .. almost NONE. But, there is a large local population that visits mexico on a regular basis, so the illegal stuff may be cheaper than safe-sane? Anyways, I stay home and hug the dog between M-80 and AK-47 blasts. What a joy!! It started on about Tuesday and stopped ... well .. it has not quite stopped yet .. lol

Try selling things on Craigslist these days...2+ years ago I could post things on there and have them gone in a day. Now I have stuff that sits for many days without even an email. People aren't spending money now, and in SoCal I'm betting it's because HELOQs are no longer a dime-a-dozen.

Another sign that the economy is not recovering - me and many other friends (smokers) are quitting smoking not because of our health, but because it's not worth the $6 per pack anymore! It's been 2 weeks for me and I'm feeling great. No cigarette purchases from me, no tax to the government. There is no grudge between me and the big tobacco industry - just the people taking cuts of their profits.

Vain,

I am glad you quit smoking, its quite bad for your health. At least you get one benefit from the depression.

I was thinking of shopping for a large LCD TV on Craig's list later this year, figured the prices might be good there. But the dollar value of some investments has tanked so I am really not in the mood to think about it any more.

inflection point says

Vain,
I am glad you quit smoking, its quite bad for your health. At least you get one benefit from the depression.

This depression is benefitting me I have to admit. Every time I crave a cigarette, I just picture the look on Obama's face when he finds out I'm SAVING from not smoking. But I guess that just means I will now be classified as a healthy person in the insurance pool. Now to go against the grain on that, I might just not enroll in health insurance! LOL

Vain says

inflection point says

Vain,

I am glad you quit smoking, its quite bad for your health. At least you get one benefit from the depression.

This depression is benefitting me I have to admit. Every time I crave a cigarette, I just picture the look on Obama’s face when he finds out I’m SAVING from not smoking. But I guess that just means I will now be classified as a healthy person in the insurance pool. Now to go against the grain on that, I might just not enroll in health insurance! LOL

Vain.
You've been persistantly smoking regardless all those naggings, doctor's warnings, inconvieniances etc, and then you suddenly decide to quit it by watching Obama's face? Is that a kind of kinky joke or what? Shame on you.

Just kidding. But seriously, Obama's face turned me off made me getting cigarette even more. Darn it.

This quarter should be interesting. While jobs may not be coming back very quickly, generally companies report job cuts at this time. I'm doubting we'll see many companies claiming to do large lay offs. Most are done and working on increasing sales now.

Since many people are still employed. We'll say 80%, that gives a good 20% unemployment rate. That still means 80% have money to spend. So why aren't they spending? Are they currently saving/creating nest eggs? Paying down debt from previous years? Having to cut spending due to lost wages? Worried about the future?

Movies aren't cheap. Fireworks are probably cheaper than movies for the average person. 2 tickets + any food = $30. If you're buying fireworks, likely you'll be with a few other people. Say 4-6 other people with you and your gf/bf. Or in another way, 8 people x $15 per movie $120. I haven't bought fireworks in a long time, but $120 seems about right. That should also show up in huge turn outs for the parks/parties/fireworks events this year if people aren't spending money, they're more likely going to be attending these events.

I know the Canadian government taxed cigarettes very heavily and still with their significantly cheaper medical care, it ended up costing a fortune in medical bills for every smoker. In the US with higher medical costs + less in taxes, I'm betting the losses are far steeper. Obama is probably smiling right now.

Well, here in Oakland, it was far from quiet. We had many illegal fireworks going off since last Wednesday and last night was the first really quiet night.

pkennedy says

Since many people are still employed. We’ll say 80%, that gives a good 20% unemployment rate. That still means 80% have money to spend. So why aren’t they spending? Are they currently saving/creating nest eggs? Paying down debt from previous years? Having to cut spending due to lost wages? Worried about the future?

How many of those 80% who are employed are underemployed at crappy service jobs or entry level white collar jobs that pay less than what they were making before the job market tanked? Last year's and this year's graduates from good universities are taking a scalping on starting wages and are having difficulty meeting their student loan obligations let alone having enough left over for food, rent, clothes on their backs and even less have enough money for entertainment.

How many have dropped off of the unemployment roles as they've given up after 24+ months without finding work after sending out thousands of resumés, cover letters, and going on hundreds of interviews?

1.2 million just lost their unemployment benefits and their COBRA subsidies. How long before these people end up at soup kitchens? How long before the soup kitchens have lines around the block?

The only people I know who are doing "OK" are people like me who work at very low-paying jobs that aren't currently in jeopardy due, in part, to funding by the Federal Government that work with the homeless, unemployed, underemployed, etc. We actually got a small bonus recently because our wages were frozen for the past year and our austerity measures (which were quite draconian) created a net savings for our agency. The draconian austerity measures were in response to fear that the State and Federal Governments were going to scrap more social programs in favor of bailing out more millionaires and billionaires. Morale got so low they had to do something to help us out. This doomsday scenario didn't materialize last year. But we are still on notice for the coming year. Our wages are still frozen, but at least we still have our jobs and we did get a small bonus plus a very very small COLA increase because our bosses found savings and knew that if they didn't spend it on us they'd lose more of us to other agencies who are paying a bit better than ours. All social service agencies here pay crap. It's just about trying to find the highest crappy wage with the least crappy benefits when you're looking for work in our industry on the non-profit side.

My friends who were in the high tech world, corporate "mid-level" managers, and in construction aren't doing so well. Nothing's changed for them in the past few months even though people were starting to talk about an alleged "recovery."

Not sure what you guys are talking about honestly. Most of my co-workers went out of town, the fireworks in downtown SJ were just about the same as last year (and the year before) and every bar and restaurant I hit up over the weekend was packed.

People are out and spending money.

Not sure this is a good example of the entire economy, but still...

therapy,
I also work in a Cool and Hip department. Most of my coworkers Yuppie'd it up like you said. Including, at least one trip for the whole family to East Asia.
But I live in a more normal place, with more "average" blue-collar kinda folks, you know, the kind that represent the 75% or so of economic activity-consumer spending in the USA. It was very quiet here.
CIty of SJ cancelled its downtown fireworks display for budget reasons, second year in a row. Something to do with the slow economy causing less revenue coming in. They cancelled the firework show. You saw the fireworks show in downtown SJ? Don't know what you're talking about.

I think they base it on unemployment claim filings. So it doesn't count the ones that have stopped receiving unemployment benefits because they weren't able to find another job. This also doesn't cover the people that had to resign their jobs because they were pissed off by their employers on purpose (with the intention of making he/she quit rather than laying them off). It does not count undocumented workers (cash paying).

Zlxr says

pkennedy and anyone else
what is unemployment really based on anyway? A percentage of the population, a percentage of the workforce, a percentage of employable adults?????
I wonder anymore because I recently saw an article that said 1/2 of the workforce was unemployed. I know the numbers are skewed - but do we really know how much of the workforce or employable adults are not working?

In short, the US population is around 309M, a bulk of it may be kids, elderly, retired, single income family, students, rich people, discouraged people, disabled, which are not part of the workforce. This is usally around 40% or so of the US population. In reality, about 170M are deemed to be active job participant, out of that active pool, 14M or so are currently jobless and 156M or so have a job, this makes the unemployment rate around 9.5%, but the people with jobs represent about 50% of the total pop.

The active job particpant stat may go up or down depending on whether people decide to go to school and no longer look for a job, have not apply for a job for a while, etc. So unemployment rate is a function of 1 - (jobs/active participant jobs pool)

You know... the oil spill is terribly tragic, for all the wildlife, the folks who depend on the gulf for tourism, fishing, etc. And business was off 50-80% there over the 4th weekend... and forward bookings are as bad or worse (the 'cane season is a double edge sword... on one hand it's a threat to everything, oil and all... and on the other hand this is the very slow season starting now for those folks in any event... this time of year people will still come to the Gulf Coast, but generally just for short unplanned type vacations... because to plan far ahead for a full pre-apid week there risks a 'cane strike and no one wants to be committed to that).

Anyhow... with tourism way down... those tourists probably stayed home and spent up a storm... I bet Atlanta (a major source of Gulf Coast visitors) probably had a bang up holiday when normally it's very quiet... ditto Montgomery. I bet even the Chinese had a great weekend selling HDTVs on what had been summer holiday money.

When one group loses out on tourist dollars someone else wins.. it's that simple.

Here's a telling sign of the times... the City of Seattle cancelled our beloved July 4 fireworks because of budgetary constraints. If Microsoft hadn't kindly offered to cover the cost there would have been a lot of disappointed people.

tatupu70 says

sybrib says

People in this blue collar corner are staying in town this year, and not spending on illegal fireworks

But the movie theaters were packed, right? So, you read into people not buying fireworks, but ignore the packed movie theaters?

What costs more... fireworks or a movie? duh

common_sense says

What costs more… fireworks or a movie? duh

duh? I don't really know what the typical person pays for fireworks, but I can't imagine it's much more than a movie night....

Zlxr .... this might help:

http://www.examiner.com/x-38904-Phoenix-Small-Business-Management-Examiner~y2010m5d7-Real-unemployment-statistics-U3-99U6-171SGS-22

May be this recession is good for the long term health of the state budget. CA government size and pay has grown too far. During good time, cut spending(pay and service) is politically risky for the incumbent. Now, those in charge have a grand reason to cut spending or risk to lose more. Thinking of those outrageous paid and pension for some chiefs, administrators and deputies just make me sick. Everyone is suffering and they are sitting up there protesting the cut.

ZLXR cood point,
why is it there has been ZERO reduction in welfare/Section 8/EBT/WIC/ADC/FreeLunch?buspass/Medi-Cal/HealthyFamilies/and every other taxpayer based welfare system in California -- not tomention the invaders and all of there illegally dropped spawn (some second generation by now) ... ZERO reduction ... but people want to see those that are productive for a dollar have their wages reduced (?) .. the world is upsidedown. I agree that all public structure is top heavy, but so is the private side of things, that is how stuff works. There is probably some fancy way to say the same thing, but the cash flows from the top down in all business models - and "fair" is just a place to eat corndogs and judge pigs.

So, lets see some CUTS .. not "less increase", but CUTS, in welfare - all forms - before we start lay-offs for public safety personnel.

kimtitu says

May be this recession is good for the long term health of the state budget. CA government size and pay has grown too far. During good time, cut spending(pay and service) is politically risky for the incumbent. Now, those in charge have a grand reason to cut spending or risk to lose more. Thinking of those outrageous paid and pension for some chiefs, administrators and deputies just make me sick. Everyone is suffering and they are sitting up there protesting the cut.

The gov. size of CA isn't not that big issue. The issue is a lot of business are not paying their taxes, there are too many loop holes of corporate taxes. I know I read an article about a month or so ago and some companies such as G&E, BP, & Walmart pay practically no gov't taxes, some even receive income from gov. taxes through subsidies.

I know the companies I mentioned are not in Cali but that was just a small list (some on that list were from Cali)... And that also does not include the super rich individuals either who also pay no to little taxes through off-shore accounts.

If this issue was fixed Cali wouldn't be in a huge hole as it stand if any at all. Besides Cali isn't the only state that broke, a bunch of other states even the ones that have little gov't are broke too. The reason being is what I just previously said, the people who should be paying taxes are not.

Here are some of the links I found. the first one is more about Federal Taxes and the second is also Federal but also includes state taxes.

http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/01/ge-exxon-walmart-business-washington-corporate-taxes.html

http://counterecon.com/2009/12/30/what-do-corporations-actually-pay-in-taxes/

Just to note what I am pointing out is just one side of the story. Yes CA will still have problems due to other issues like foreclosure and loss of income tax due to unemployment. But that side has been discussed already.

Nomo, I have just spent about 20 mins trying to find some facts that show reduction in welfare in the past year or two. Please put up a couple of links to help me out. I know Section 8 was supposed to be reduced, but so far it has not and from what I just read it is Fed (HUD) based for the most part - not Cal sate, so my mistake. But, there are alot of State based program that the Cities are using as part of the RDA's - so welfare for housing is still strong.

Anyways, if you have something to share in the form of good links, I'll gladly read up. Thanks.

All this Doom & Gloom. I'm sure it's only a matter of time before Obama's "change" kicks in and everything is more better.

Zeik says

The reason being is what I just previously said, the people who should be paying taxes are not.

This is another reason on top of a pile . Actually, there are so many elements behind the budget issue CA faces today. Government officials increase their own pay every year, increase pension, cash out vacation, rich don't pay tax through tax loop hole, business don't pay tax through cash transaction and loop hole, poor don't pay tax through cash payment, poor exploit welfare system, illegal/undocumented add stress to public resource, etc. etc. W2 are the one who suffers the most at this moment. W2 earners have nothing to hide.
If we were to tackle all these problems simultaneously, many groups will be affected and no change will happen. I guess at the end, it must start somewhere and when economy gets better, the cut or policy correction will stop there. Who goes first, you guess.

RayAmerica says

I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before Obama’s “change” kicks in and everything is more better.

All we can settle for is less worse. After all, McCain's financial advisory team had Mr "It's just a Mental Recession" on it.

Much of the problems we face now got rolling under Clinton (and his Republican congress) of the 90s . . . rising trade imbalance with China, NAFTA, near-total inactivity in alternative energy research. The Bush crew took all these mistakes and doubled down on them 2002-2006, while adding more like a trillion dollar war in the mideast, tax cuts that destroyed the nation's finances, and of course giving us the housing bubble that created ~$20T of phantom wealth.

There are no easy answers now. Platitudes are all the politicians have got. Curiously, Obama does seem to be rather conservative about what fixes he's going to propose to Congress, as indicated by the composition of his deficit commission, which is stacked with deficit hawks and anti-FDR types.

Troy says

RayAmerica says

I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before Obama’s “change” kicks in and everything is more better.

All we can settle for is less worse. After all, McCain’s financial advisory team had Mr “It’s just a Mental Recession” on it.
Much of the problems we face now got rolling under Clinton (and his Republican congress) of the 90s . . . rising trade imbalance with China, NAFTA, near-total inactivity in alternative energy research. The Bush crew took all these mistakes and doubled down on them 2002-2006, while adding more like a trillion dollar war in the mideast, tax cuts that destroyed the nation’s finances, and of course giving us the housing bubble that created ~$20T of phantom wealth.
There are no easy answers now. Platitudes are all the politicians have got. Curiously, Obama does seem to be rather conservative about what fixes he’s going to propose to Congress, as indicated by the composition of his deficit commission, which is stacked with deficit hawks and anti-FDR types.

Most of the problem actually goes back to Regan. By the time Clinton came into office the problems were there.. He just never address the problems that were arising. Sure he issued more problem too but the damage was already done by Regan and Bush Senior.

Personally if it wasn't for the tech boom in the 90's the Clinton Era would of been much worst... I am pretty sure the recession of the early 90's late 80's would of sustained through out the Clinton Era.

kimtitu says

Zeik says

The reason being is what I just previously said, the people who should be paying taxes are not.

This is another reason on top of a pile . Actually, there are so many elements behind the budget issue CA faces today. Government officials increase their own pay every year, increase pension, cash out vacation, rich don’t pay tax through tax loop hole, business don’t pay tax through cash transaction and loop hole, poor don’t pay tax through cash payment, poor exploit welfare system, illegal/undocumented add stress to public resource, etc. etc. W2 are the one who suffers the most at this moment. W2 earners have nothing to hide.

If we were to tackle all these problems simultaneously, many groups will be affected and no change will happen. I guess at the end, it must start somewhere and when economy gets better, the cut or policy correction will stop there. Who goes first, you guess.

That's true too. Cali does have many issues to tackle, but right now it's focus is on governmental programs. However, that issue is much smaller compared to many of the others we mentioned. But I guess regardless of whatever issue you tackle the state as a whole will suffer. If you get rid of programs then you're left with many people who will have no income to help them get by which will result in a lost of more revenue from the state as well. Not to mention you'll have a bunch of people in the street since the poverty level has risen.

But if you tackle the tax issue then you'll have companies and rich who will just leave altogether. Simply because technology & creative accounting has allowed it to where people/companies don't have to live in the state to conduct its business in the same state.

I wouldn't be surprised if counties and a lot of other cities, heck even the state outsource most if not all programs to contractors. I am sure that day will come eventually. Just take a look at Maywood, California.

http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jun/23/local/la-me-0623-maywood-20100623

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/23/maywood-ca-plans-to-disba_n_622098.html

I remember talks of Arnold wanting to privatize CA prisons. Though it may never happen but I wouldn't be surprised if it does. But then again some of it is already happening with out of state temporarily housing and private institutions already in the state.

You know my concern is, private companies don't provide many if at all any benefits for their workers.. usually your benefit is a 401k plan provided by the company. Sure sometimes they match what you pay but usually it's from company stock which isn't all that good (Eron screams here).

If there are no good benefits and people are living longer, then you're going to have a huge unemployment gap for the upcoming generation. Mainly because the older gen. isn't retiring or leaving the work force because they have to continue to work since their crappy 401k's were destroyed.

Also a lot of contractors produce more waste than if the government had it's own employments. Not to mention contractors are going to produce/service the goods as cheaply as they can, which means they'll outsource it to illegals or other countries. Or they'll pay US/CA citizens much less wages or once again no real retirement benefits.

Regardless, with contractors and businesses its all about the buck. They will get as much of the buck they can with less cost.

Well would say more but I gotta go.

Ciao

Zlxr says

What I’m mostly saying is that cutting waste and stuff like that would free up money

Would it? One man's waste is another man's paycheck, generally speaking.