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Buyer pool drying up


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2007 May 8, 1:52am   12,731 views  157 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

dried up lake

If lending standards had remained steady, then we would have a pipeline of people who spent the past 5 to 10 years saving for a down payment. Instead, they already got that house, and the savings don't exist. So, if we go back to decent lending standards (i.e., 20% down), we have a LONG wait before we have significant numbers of new buyers, on top of all of the other reasons you cite.

Bob L.

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1   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 2:04am  

Right on, great graphic.

2   ozajh   2007 May 8, 2:10am  

Hmmmm, nice graphic. Could have been taken around where I live.

And if you think I'm kidding,
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/11/29/1038386313869.html

Lake George has been completely dry for nearly 5 years now :(. We went to a lookout recently with some UK relatives here on holidays. Showed them the lake, and then showed them some photographs from the 70's when it was 80 square miles of (shallow) water.

They were stunned.

3   Steveoh   2007 May 8, 2:21am  

Exactly!

Just as debt is the obligation of future income, the greed of recent years reaped the profits of the future. Now comes the self imposed economic drought.

My guess is that, this debacle will not hinder our capacity to continue screwing things up for the next generation.

4   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 3:10am  

Ozajh, it is depressing, but it might fill back up. We had the same thing happen with Lake Hodges in Escondido. It used to be a very nice shallow lake, and year after year it got lower and lower. Environmentalists debated about refilling it, but new shrubbery and wildlife had moved in. Anyway, last year we had a nice wet rainy season so it filled up to the top, and spilled over the dam wall. People were getting traffic tickets for stopping to admire the waterfall. Gotta love San Diego, people here love anything unusual. It is now full again, and as nice as ever.

5   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 3:36am  

That reminds me of what is now a famous Realtwhore commercial where the wife wants the house, and the guy doesn't know if he can afford it. Good thing for them they had a reassuring agent 'You can do this!.'

6   skibum   2007 May 8, 3:42am  

My ex and I split up over this. I thought it was much wiser to save up for a modest house, and she wanted the “big one” N-O-W!…

wes,
Thanks for the personal info post. Boy, if she is indeed about to default, I wonder what she thinks about your financial prudence THESE days...

Maybe you can buy her place through the bank!

7   skibum   2007 May 8, 3:45am  

That reminds me of what is now a famous Realtwhore commercial where the wife wants the house, and the guy doesn’t know if he can afford it. Good thing for them they had a reassuring agent ‘You can do this!.’

Malcolm,

You sir, are referring to the infamous "Suzanne researched this!" ad from Century 21, the epitome of pu$$y-whipping via the Realtor (TM), our "agent of change":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw

8   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 3:51am  

Thanks for the citation, just going from memory. You're awesome.

9   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 3:54am  

God that is funnier now than it was then. All of this is going to be in an MBA class one day, I know it.

10   DinOR   2007 May 8, 3:59am  

In particular with all the articles linked today the thread topic is spot on!

Can you say decimated? :(

11   diwakarc   2007 May 8, 3:59am  

But then how would America’s realtors eat?

White Castle!!

12   diwakarc   2007 May 8, 4:00am  

But then how would America’s realtors eat?

White Castle!!

13   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 4:03am  

I believe the concept a poor man with the jealous materialistic wife, shattered dreams, and a hopeless future with the same nagging day in and day out is a few hundred if not thousand years old as well.

14   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 4:08am  

Just look at that poor bastard's face. I can't believe that is actually an NAR spot, and all of us know some guy whose wife even looks and sounds like her. I'm getting the creeps.

15   skibum   2007 May 8, 4:14am  

Just look at that poor bastard’s face. I can’t believe that is actually an NAR spot, and all of us know some guy whose wife even looks and sounds like her. I’m getting the creeps.

Exactly. That spot is frightening more than anything else. The wife puts Cruella DeVille to shame. Instead of "Suzanne researched this," the title should be "Man loses testicles. Nowhere to be found."

16   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 4:18am  

Look at how the wife bobs her head to force the point. I've had people do that to me signaling the beginning of a MAJOR confrontation, can you imagine being married to that?

17   skibum   2007 May 8, 4:20am  

It looks like no one has yet posted this yet:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/08/real_estate/home_prices_to_dip/index.htm?postversion=2007050813

"Home prices are expected to finish down for the year, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Tuesday, which would mark the first drop since the group started tracking values in 1968.

NAR projects a 1 percent decline in the median price of an existing single-family home, to $219,800. The group, in a forecast made a month ago, had previously been expecting a 0.7 percent decline. Prior to that, it had expected a gain of 1.2 percent."

I realize it's a statement of the obvious to us here, but it's remarkable that the NAR is making such a prediciton. To me, it says that they know a historic price decline is "in the bag," or else they would not have gone out on a limb like this. Either that, or this is just David Learah's mea culpa/swan song.

18   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 4:22am  

What! (head bob w a twitch).

I've always thought this was hysterical but I've never actually dissected it. It is very disturbing.

19   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 4:25am  

That commercial should be used in some assertiveness training seminar!

20   azrob   2007 May 8, 4:26am  

that commercial was hilarious, and roundly critized at the time. But for some people, like me and my ex, not that far from the truth. Forunately we split up at damn near the peak of the bubble, and our expensive show home got sold and split and I went back to my more humble lifestyle... Half of the appreciation on the mansion damn near paid off a middle class 4 br 3 bath home in az...

21   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 4:30am  

I remember it wa criticized but for some reason now that we have a little history behind us it seems even funnier because you know that it happened in many many times in real life and what the outcome was. In divorce court I can just picture that ()unt saying he pressured her because he wanted the garage.

22   Patrick   2007 May 8, 4:43am  

Some database problem...

23   skibum   2007 May 8, 4:45am  

In fact, we've already gotten stories from azrob and wes that pretty much sound like real-life versions of this commercial/nightmare.

Maybe now Suzanne (TM) can "research" how to do a short sale for that couple.

24   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 4:46am  

ROTFLMFAO

25   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 4:47am  

Sir, that is the post of the day for me.

26   sfbubblebuyer   2007 May 8, 5:18am  

Yah, the little 'head waggle' after the "What?" makes me crack up. I expect her to throw her arms out and say "You want a piece of this, biznitch?" right after.

And yes, that commercial is horrible. But not as horrible as the fights my wife and I have had about buying a house. Thank GOD we started looking in Jan of 2007 instead of 2006. She's seen the MSM start saying bad things about Housing going south and now agrees that now is maybe not a Good Time to Buy (or Sell) a House(tm).

27   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 5:23am  

That would have been great if when she does the head bob thing hs says,

"Oh no you di'ent!"

28   e   2007 May 8, 5:35am  

God that is funnier now than it was then. All of this is going to be in an MBA class one day, I know it.

Speaking of which, there were a slew of articles at the end of last year about how real estate classes at Business Schools were packed to the brims.

Kinda like in 2000 when SQL classes were packed to the brims.

That's ok, these MBAs will be our future leaders - like George W Bush.

29   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 5:49am  

Times change, the cattle herd mentality does not.

30   Peter P   2007 May 8, 5:51am  

Is "partial foundation replacement" the "hip" way to demolish a house in Commie SF?

http://tinyurl.com/2owfxj

(Disclaimer: I feel bad for the young couple. I do not think they intentionally caused the collapse.)

31   danville woman   2007 May 8, 5:53am  

Buyer pool seems to be drying up in the Danville area. Am following some homes which are not selling - even in the Spring season. Went to one Open House on Sunday - very very light traffic despite being a gorgeous day.

32   Peter P   2007 May 8, 5:54am  

Times change, the cattle herd mentality does not.

This is why the good taste of beef is permanent.

33   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 6:19am  

Outback serves the best fillet mignon in my opinion. I get it with the side of 1/2 a pound Alaskan King Crab Legs. That's currently my favorite meal.

34   Peter P   2007 May 8, 6:26am  

Outback serves the best fillet mignon in my opinion. I get it with the side of 1/2 a pound Alaskan King Crab Legs. That’s currently my favorite meal.

Have you tried Fleming's in La Jolla? I usually share the piece of steak with my wife though. I am only allowed 8oz of meat. I prefer rib-eye and NY cuts.

I live fillet mignon wrapped in bacon.

I love Alaskan King Crab Legs.

35   Peter P   2007 May 8, 6:29am  

What do you guys think about the new Trump Steak?

36   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 6:33am  

Silly marketing, but I haven't tried it.

I'll check out Flemmings, next time you and your wife are going down to La Jolla, let me know. We go down there quite often. If you get down to Corodado, the Coronado Boat House has a lobster tail the size of two clenched fists.

37   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 6:34am  

I got a postcard from Trump's son offering a get rich quick seminar. I'll bet dad is real proud of Jr riding those coat tails.

38   Peter P   2007 May 8, 6:35am  

If you get down to Corodado, the Coronado Boat House has a lobster tail the size of two clenched fists.

Wow. I am sure it costs more than my pocket can hold.

Coronado is a nice place. The movable barrier system on the bridge is very interesting.

39   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 6:36am  

A really good fillet like Outback's needs nothing to enhance it. They are always perfectly seasoned, and I get it medium rare. YYUuuummmmm.

40   Malcolm   2007 May 8, 6:38am  

I like it there as well. I skippered a sailboat with big brothers big sisters on Saturday and was sailing under the bridge. It is a very impressive span.

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