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Real Estate A Good Investment - Elsewhere!


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2007 May 24, 9:08am   15,000 views  129 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

Ponzi

Dear Patrick,

I enjoyed your housing crash article. It made me feel very good about renting in NY at rent stabilized prices since 1993 and having used the savings to invest in American commercial property, residential property Latvia, Bulgaria and Panama. I have never actually lived in a house I owned and think Robert Shiller's housing puts are a great investment.

I think you were not quite explicit about your principle point: that the US housing market has become a Ponzi style casino in which the commission grabbing mortgage bankers and Wall Street are the house and the retail buyers the naive punters. And anyone who doesn't count his cards and get out in time loses.

Real estate can be a great investment, if you:

1. Invest without emotion and at or below replacement cost, as in Latvia in 1998.

2. Buy where others are too scared because of perceived risk, as in Eastern Europe 5-10 years ago.

3. Buy where prices are the same as 23 years ago, like in Tokyo now.

4. Buy where the rental yield far exceeds bond returns, like in Tokyo now.

5. Buy in growing, cheap resort areas where the yields are close to or in double digits, like in Bulgaria, Turkey or Malaysia now. Beach apts in Malaysia can be bought for 500 euros/m2 with yields of 8-10%. Real estate taxes per year in Bulgaria cost less than dinner at a good restaurant in
Riga.

6. Buy where rapid construction cost inflation + the introduction of a mass mortgage demand will juice demand, as Rumania, Turkey or Bulgaria.

7. Buy in small stable countries with no income tax and good financial services and legal systems right next door to big, disorganized corrupt countries with lots of money to launder, like the Baltic States from 1995-2005 and Panama, Singapore, Turks & Caicos and Malaysia now (next door to Colombia/Venezuela, Indonesia/China). Buy in condotels with in-house rental management companies, so your rental revenue is at per day hotel rates instead of by the month, while the per square meter purchase price is at a normal local market rate.

8. Buy REITs with good yields (Singapore, Japan, Eastern Europe) in fast growing markets and leave the work to Cohen & Steers or the REITs' managers.

9. Invest in areas where EU infrastructure funds are producing wage and construction material inflation and raising replacement costs by double digits per year while the overall CPI is 2-5%.

10. Invest with my brother in the Baltics. My brother's fund is Baltic Realty Partners. His first fund was Latvia Realty Fund (www.latviarealty.com).

Best from sunny Riga and

Kind regards,

Lester G

#housing

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1   HeadSet   2007 May 24, 12:10pm  

Ļoti patīkami!

Interesting idea on offshore investing. I am hoping that such opportunities will open up in America after the correction. SQT's post on the Sacramento no sell after a 50% reduction gives me hope.

2   HeadSet   2007 May 24, 12:18pm  

Since this is a joke thread, I'll add from the sprit of nukes in the previous thread:

I'm not sure if I remember right from my SAC says, but I seem to recall that Riga was on my Strategic Target List.......BOOM

3   FormerAptBroker   2007 May 24, 1:10pm  

Sacramento has Casey, now Bakersfield has Crisp:

http://www.bakersfield.com/102/story/148844.html

We are going to see a lot more of these stories this year.

P.S. If Forclosures are up 1,000% do they count as "Sales" so the NAR can report that "Sales are up! It's a great time to Buy!" (not that the NAR has ever said that it is NOT "A great time to Buy"...

4   astrid   2007 May 24, 2:23pm  

When in Estonia, be wary of wrathful Russians.

5   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 May 24, 2:37pm  

I'm not sure this is a joke. I don't know whether or not it is a good way to invest, but people are doing things like that.

No kidding, I know someone who recently cash-out refinanced his residence in California to buy palatial residential real estate in the Philippines.

And another person I know got an apartment building with lotsa units in his province of China with the cash out from his Santa Clara refinancing.

6   danville woman   2007 May 24, 2:43pm  

Dzien Dobry

Domy v Polsce som drogie.

Do Widzenia.

7   Ozman   2007 May 24, 4:07pm  

Poor taste.
No further comment.

8   surfer-x   2007 May 24, 7:38pm  

man, I just read the news on real.estateonlygoesup.org that SF prime is HOT baby hot, this makes my head hurt because on it.onlygoesflat.notagoodinvestment.net says that bad baby bad. So I think if drunk monkeys with ebola invaded $anta Barbara and I had only a few minutes to live, I most certainly would wish for more, and I mean more, green colored paper with absolutely no connection with reality.

Fuck you, you fucking fucks. God fucking dammit how I fucking hate the fucking boomers.

9   surfer-x   2007 May 24, 7:38pm  

man, I just read the news on real.estateonlygoesup.org that SF prime is HOT baby hot, this makes my head hurt because on it.onlygoesflat.notagoodinvestment.net says that its bad baby bad. So I think if drunk monkeys with ebola invaded $anta Barbara and I had only a few minutes to live, I most certainly would wish for more, and I mean more, green colored paper with absolutely no connection with reality.

Fuck you, you fucking fucks. God fucking dammit how I fucking hate the fucking boomers.

10   DinOR   2007 May 24, 11:41pm  

Finally! Finally it is revealed!

There has been a long time poster over at Ben Jones blog who's origins have at long last been exposed! "Crisp(y) & Cole" (when pressed for an explanation of his screen name) would shrug it off and say it was just a fictitious "fabrication" of an imaginary (and grossly misguided) RE investment firm. Uh huh.

I can't wait to see how this one plays out! 8 defaulted properties in ONE family! That's got to be some kind of a record, isn't it? The only thing that could possibly make my Friday any better would be to find that Daniel Sadek (the financial genius behind the cinematic materpiece "Redline" and founder of QuickLoanFunding.com) was the lender! Boo-yah!

Thanks FAB and oh, who is going to be the first "test monkey" to drive over the newly repaired off ramp? Well....?

11   Randy H   2007 May 24, 11:53pm  

If the NAR ever does, however unlikely, actually say "now is *not* a good time to buy, just wait a bit"...

That will be the day I buy at whatever price I have to pay.

12   DinOR   2007 May 24, 11:54pm  

If you are serious about investing in RE abroad a good starting point is www.viviun.com. They seem to cover most of the globe. You can even buy an entire hotel in Sophia Bulgaria! For those looking for swaying palm trees and exotic breezes (and don't mind the occasional Moro National Liberation Front "dust up") I suggest www.islandsproperties.com.

13   DinOR   2007 May 25, 12:05am  

For those that might actually be considering the Philippines keep in mind the seller has a "bottom line price" s/he won't go under. The broker's compensation is based on the difference between the 'wishing price' and what the property is actually sold for! Start with about 1/3 of what they're asking.

Lowballing IS expected and haggling is understood. Negotiations get heated, but no more (or less) than buying a chicken at the market. Filipinos LOVE to trade and in ways it's just another form of gambling so as long as you keep "yo momma" out of it, it's cool!

14   HeadSet   2007 May 25, 12:20am  

“The legislation would also let FHA cut down payments for qualified applicants to as low as zero.”

Seems that in their zeal to keep home prices high, our legislators have learned nothing from the bust. Maybe they just like future forclosures and bailouts.

15   sam204   2007 May 25, 12:30am  

Crispy should be able to finance at least one of those defaults if he recycles some of the petroleum he's using in his hair products.

Funny how well many of these guys conform to the stereotypical shyster image.

16   DinOR   2007 May 25, 12:44am  

samac,

True. That's why a strongly suspect a Crispy-Sadek connection. Perhaps David Crisp provided some of the start-up capital for the movie Redline?

17   HeadSet   2007 May 25, 1:09am  

DinOr,

Are you planning to buy in PI?

I understand that some of these countries have laws that require a local partner to buy investment property.

18   HeadSet   2007 May 25, 1:18am  

"If the NAR ever does, however unlikely, actually say “now is *not* a good time to buy, just wait a bit”…

That will happen after:

DS sings the praises of Laisseze Faire Capitalism

Astrid moves to a rural area and has 10 kids

Peter P becomes a Vegan

Surfer-x forms a Boomer Fan Club

DinOr becomes a Jeepney Driver in PI

19   DinOR   2007 May 25, 1:29am  

@Headset,

We've owned various properties there since the early 80's. Depending on who was in office (and my wife's citizenship at the time) we've had to jump through several different hoops. Now that she's a U.S citizen most has been moved into her mother's name and will likely never be part of our daughter's inheritance.

Typically though, if you don't have any relatives already IN the P.I owning RE there wouldn't be of any particular interest anyway? My brother-in-law has landed us some really excellent deals on ag. property over the years. Usually it was a scenario where a long held family property was being sold for health reasons or college and they just needed cash quick. In two cases we allowed the family to continue to farm some of the land and this has had other benefits as it helps come election time. Btw "buying" votes is more or less legal in the P.I!

We have a modest beach house that will always stay in the family. Great fishing, fun beach parties. :)

20   DinOR   2007 May 25, 1:38am  

Somehow, Surfer-X forming a "Boomer Fan Club" seems the least probable of all!

I will say though, one of my goals in life was to become one of those nocturnal bar owners that caters solely to those clearly on the slide.

21   astrid   2007 May 25, 1:39am  

I would like to run a sustainable farm.

As for kids. I actually like kids (except crying ones in enclosed spaces) but I just can't justify the financial and time costs.

22   HeadSet   2007 May 25, 2:37am  

"I would like to run a sustainable farm"

ABC news had a feature last week on a well to do community of homes in rural Oregon where each home used solar panels to supply the vast majority of each homes electricity.

Oddly, the solar panels were charging a bank of batteries that then supplied an inverter so the homes could use standard AC appliances. Of course, the typical appliance has a transformer that converts the AC back to DC. Inverters and transformers are inefficient by nature, so that double conversion lowers the usable output.

I hope that solar cells catch on enough that we get improvements and lower costs from higher product demand, plus a standard such as 24 Volt DC for the panels, batteries, and appliances.

Right now, it costs more to build the solar panel systems that would be saved from buying less commercial power. Hopefully, enough well do do pioneers will forge ahead until the technology improves and the costs of installing solar decreases enough to be mainstream affordable. This would be a great way to lead by personal example for those rich politicos and wealthy entertainers who keep banging the global warming drum.

23   HeadSet   2007 May 25, 3:02am  

KT,

Solar is already economic on the Big Island with today's technology? Great!

I assume the upkeep your are talking about is for the batteries? I thought the panels themselves were maintenance free. Do the homes sell back to the grid?

Yes, I could use the tagline "Drive out in your new Tesla to Headset's 24VDC Caveat Emporium"

24   DinOR   2007 May 25, 3:13am  

Headset,

Was that out in Christmas Valley? It's been one of the few areas left in OR that's been largely unaffected by bubble pricing. Right out of a spaghetti western, high bluffs in the distance, little water, sand dunes and NO power! The locals seem to like it fine and it's not uncommon to have a 110 degree July day with a hail storm and go right back to being 110! They play "prairie golf" and don't advocate looking for your ball in the rough. (With all the rattlers it's better to take a drop). For some sick reason, I really like it out there and so do the "kids".

I'd heard some are using solar and many erect old fashioned windmills to modestly power these homesteads. Also propane powered generators. In Fort Rock you can walk into the local tavern with a revolver and as long as it's still in the holster they're o.k with it. Very interesting place.

25   astrid   2007 May 25, 3:15am  

Headset,

I wouldn't mind paying a premium for green technology. What's the environmental impact of making a standard solar cell setup?

26   DinOR   2007 May 25, 3:17am  

I've heard on the "Big Island" (one of the wettest places on earth) they're also big on using "water catchment" systems. Basically roof to gutters, gutters to tanks, sanitization = potable water! Why not?

27   astrid   2007 May 25, 3:19am  

Or people could live in smaller houses, install better insulation, get rid of inefficient household appliances, install double pane windows, and wear weather appropriate clothing.

During the cold months, my parents' electric bill regularly run 1/3 of their friends with a similar size home. It just depends on how high or low you're willing to set your thermostat.

28   DinOR   2007 May 25, 3:23am  

astrid,

Do you have any idea how many people I know that expect to be able to walk around their house barefoot in January!? Uh... have you people heard of a sweater? It's like the slightest variation in interior temp. and you might as well be living in a tent?

29   HeadSet   2007 May 25, 4:15am  

"I wouldn’t mind paying a premium for green technology."

I hope that mindset becomes the norm. I'd love to see the status symbols change from the 3 ton SUV or 3500 sqft house to how much one sells back to the grid.

"What’s the environmental impact of making a standard solar cell setup?"

I do not know. But since the panels are long term use they should have little impact. As solar gains in popularity, I would think that battery development would create longer lasting and more recycleable features.

30   HeadSet   2007 May 25, 4:18am  

"Or people could live in smaller houses, install better insulation, get rid of inefficient household appliances, install double pane windows, and wear weather appropriate clothing."

You can do both conservation and solar, they are not mutually exclusive. In fact, you may have to do the things you mentioned first in order to create a home sustainable by alternative power alone.

31   HeadSet   2007 May 25, 4:20am  

"Was that out in Christmas Valley?"

That sounds familiar. They did mention propane generators, although one resident sad he has not needed his generator for two years.

32   DinOR   2007 May 25, 4:34am  

KT,

Thanks for the heads up. I understand there have been some improvements and they now filter through "osmosis" or much in the same way as a jacuzzi is santized? Either way it's of little concern for me. Washing clothes, showering and flushing water would be the brunt of our use. Bottled water from an occasional run into town would suffice and long time posters here know that if I had a "tummy ache" it sure wouldn't be from water!

We had a local MD here in Portland that developed his own catchment system (complete with "excluder") which rejects the first 10 gallons and his own filtration system all purchased from a local hardware store. The city came in and said, you can't do that! When it was tested his water was BETTER than the city's.

They sent him a bill anyway!

33   HeadSet   2007 May 25, 4:52am  

"They sent him a bill anyway!"

Is he on city sewer? Sewer rates are often calculated on water useage, so maybe they were thinking that with no water bill he was freeloading on the sewer.

34   HARM   2007 May 25, 4:58am  

Our markets have become much more efficient with the internet. What was once 5-7 year real estate cycles have become 2-3 years. That is why the rise has been so quick, and the fall quicker than in previous cycles for certain areas of property.

I disagree. While the Internet is beginning to have a significant impact on information available to the buyer (Zillow, county tax assessor websites, etc.) and lending (not always for the better), and a handful of new FSBO companies are just starting to nibble away at the NAR/MLS monopoly (Help-U-Sell, Redfin, Property Shark, etc.), the sale/escrow process is still nearly as inefficient as it was 20 years ago. The proof can be found in the 5-6% sales commissions that are *still* common (vs. 1-2% typical in other countries), and long transaction times.

The Internet did not repeal the business cycle for stocks, nor will it do so for real estate. We've had a nearly 10-year RE bull market (1997-2006). This was hardly a "quick" run-up by any measure, nor is the correction phase likely to play out any faster. Real estate continues to be "sticky" on the way down, as evidenced by sharply falling sales compared to much smaller mostly single-digit YoY drops in prices, if that. Most people will do nothing until their IO/option-ARM resets (see Credit-Suisse chart) and they are forced to sell. This will not happen all at once, but gradually over several years, as it all depends upon the type of loan, teaser or fixed-rate-lock period, and when they got the loan.

It might be *possible* to get a deep-discount deal right now (see Surfer-X & DinOR), but for most of us, especially in extreme bubble regions (CA, FL, etc.), it is not *likely* to happen anytime soon, because most FBs still have not hit ARM-reset wall and do not have to sell. The typical bubble market clearing price is still WAY above fundamentals and is likely to remain so for several more years.

35   DinOR   2007 May 25, 4:59am  

Headset,

That wound up being the long and short of it. In fact, that's what prompted the investigation. The City accused the good doctor of tampering with the water meter! When he showed them the system he'd designed and built they were like, "uh... that can't be very sanitary!"

So he gave them a sample to test. I mean, the guy's a doctor o.k? When the sample came back rated better than the city they got miffed and billed him based on past consumption anyway! He didn't care, he knew he was doing his part, had fun with the city and got better water out of the deal!

36   e   2007 May 25, 5:16am  

“I wouldn’t mind paying a premium for green technology.”

I hope that mindset becomes the norm. I’d love to see the status symbols change from the 3 ton SUV or 3500 sqft house to how much one sells back to the grid.

That's exactly what bin laden would want us to do.

Support America. Keep on shopping.

37   DinOR   2007 May 25, 5:31am  

Va Beyatch,

Hey how are you! I couldn't remember if the poster @ Ben's was from Bakersfield but he always had the funniest posts! Dude has got to be rolling around naked in "I told you so" right now!

What a joke. Almost each and every one of the EIGHT homes in default were purchased within weeks of one another (ala CS style) and spread out amongst blood related kool-aid drinkers. Pffftt. Some "big" investment firm huh?

Thanks for your business...... (mom!)

I HATE it!

38   Patrick   2007 May 25, 5:56am  

Muggy - sure you can register even in Florida. I even had a seller in Florida contact me looking for buyers!

I'll try to make it clearer on my page.

Patrick

39   Brent   2007 May 25, 6:22am  

Got this via spam of all places:

http://doolittle.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=65827

Does this mean GSEs can't buy "illegal" paper? (I don't think they originate.) Wasn't this a rather large chunk of the sub-prime stuff?

40   HARM   2007 May 25, 6:43am  

@HelloKitty,

Thanks --funny site! Ironically, that was commissioned by the VAR (Virginia Association of Realtors) ostensibly to counter *ahem* unethical behavior in the ranks. It says so at the end of the "quiz".

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