patrick.net

Mr.Fantastic says

One word: Bernanke.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke
Yeah, 1590 on his SATs, valedictorian, learned calc on his own because HS didn't teach it, Harvard, summa cum laude, PHD MIT - a real idiot. Dare to compare your stats?

I don't agree with most of what he has done, but I'm attempting to plan based on what he is doing.

Mr.Fantastic says

klarek says

you’re dreaming up “rising interest rates” as a reason prices will go up.

Honestly, I don’t know how some people can speak about the housing market if they simply don’t understand basic economic principals.

When asked why home prices would go up, ch_tah actually manufactured the causality of rising rates pushing prices higher. I am not kidding. Of all the absurd things I've heard over the years, it might be the only remark I've heard that's less absurd than "prices never go down", simply because of its obvious contradiction and dismissal of simple math and economics.

Yeah, my logic is so off base that someone (a graduate from Columbia) at Fortune magazine basically wrote the same thing.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/10/will-rising-mortgage-rates-spur-home-sales/

Relevant quotes:
"Those buyers who have been eyeing new homes may finally pull the trigger once they realize that rates are heading north again. After all, borrowing is still cheap, and it's best to lock in rates today instead of waiting to see what happens tomorrow."

"Once people see this might actually be the bottom, they go for it." economist with Capital Economics Paul Dales tells Bloomberg. It's the same line of thinking that keeps retail investors from jumping into stocks at the bottom of the market -- it's only after they've seen it start to rebound that they get back in.

I have Columbia, Harvard and MIT on my side. What do you guys have?

ch_tah says

there’s plenty of historical evidence of prices increasing while rates increase, so I don’t see how that shows any internal doubt.

Historically, we've gotten rate increases to tamp down "inflation expectations" AKA rising domestic real wages.

Domestic wages are going DOWN now. The 1970s and the 5% pa inflation were 40 years ago, when the baby boom was in the teens and 20s and not their late 50s and 60s. BIG difference.

Almost half of what job growth we got in the last decade was construction directly driven by BS bubble investment. The trend since NAFTA has been moving our jobs overseas.

The only job sector with any growth has been health & education, but these are now in the Republican's sights for cutting now that the American people in their infinite wisdom have put them back in charge of the nation's fisc.

We're fucked.

ch_tah says

I have Columbia, Harvard and MIT on my side. What do you guys have?

Japan, 1990-now.

ch_tah, I have no doubt that rising rates will "push people into the market".

The market is where the average idiot gets creamed by the smart money.

Now, if we start getting some bona-fide WAGE inflation, we'll see these early movers get rewarded for getting off the fence, just like the brave buyers in 1995 and 2001 did.

Absent a rise in disposable income, these buyers will have jumped in prematurely, as the higher rates will serve as a drag on affordability and thus prices sellers can command.

This happened in Japan in the late 90s too, where there was a mini-recovery in 1995 only to get smushed again as the larger realities reasserted themselves.

Absolutely agree with you Troy that without wage inflation, prices won't keep rising. I think Ben may have learned from Japan and won't put the brakes on until inflation, including wage inflation, is well established.

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

whats a worse finiancial decision: throwing $75grand away in the trash, or use that same money and buying a car that has lower depreciation and higher reliability then most cars?
I don’t own a Porsche or feel the need to buy one, but I know what I would do given the 2 choices.

If that were the choice, then I don’t think anyone would argue with you. But, that’s not really the choice…

actualy the choice is buy or wait and keep the cash.. and we all know what he picked.

ch_tah says

I have Columbia, Harvard and MIT on my side. What do you guys have?

These fancy degrees did a whole lot of good... how many of those guys called the bubble?

Serpentor says

ok, if we’re going to play that game: show me where I said he’s underwater?

I like crickets

ch_tah says

Mr.Fantastic says

One word: Bernanke.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke
Yeah, 1590 on his SATs, valedictorian, learned calc on his own because HS didn’t teach it, Harvard, summa cum laude, PHD MIT - a real idiot. Dare to compare your stats?
I don’t agree with most of what he has done, but I’m attempting to plan based on what he is doing.

BFD on the SATs. I'm 20points behind him on my official score and I've scored perfect 1600 many times on supervised practice exams. SATS don't mean shit. Book smarts doen't mean jack as we all have learned. How many people in wallstreet with Harvard/Yale degrees and 1600 SATs predicted the crash?

Why should tat answer your question when you won't answer questions posed to you?

That's funny. You say you have a score that's higher than 99.9% of the population yet you also say who cares that test doesn't prove anything. Interesting logic.

How many people on wall street own houses and have millions of dollars? Did they profit before/during/after the crash? It seems like according to the news most are doing pretty well. Maybe they didn't predict it publicly, but plenty seemed to know about it privately.

Serpentor says

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

whats a worse finiancial decision: throwing $75grand away in the trash, or use that same money and buying a car that has lower depreciation and higher reliability then most cars?
I don’t own a Porsche or feel the need to buy one, but I know what I would do given the 2 choices.

If that were the choice, then I don’t think anyone would argue with you. But, that’s not really the choice…

actualy the choice is buy or wait and keep the cash.. and we all know what he picked.

Yes, because I posted it earlier. And despite your assertions, my house is worth more now than when I bought it.

Serpentor says

Serpentor says

ok, if we’re going to play that game: show me where I said he’s underwater?

I like crickets

Sorry--i didn't answer. You are right--you didn't say that. I inferred it from your earlier posts...

ch_tah says

How many people on wall street own houses and have millions of dollars? Did they profit before/during/after the crash? It seems like according to the news most are doing pretty well. Maybe they didn’t predict it publicly, but plenty seemed to know about it privately.

are you kidding me? most of wallstreet got BAILED OUT with Trillion dollar packages. How many people predicted the crash and made money? VERY FEW, and we all know who they are.... Collectively, they lost hundreds of Billions if not Trillions. I guess in your own fantasy they never made mistakes.

Serpentor says

are you kidding me? most of wallstreet got BAILED OUT with Trillion dollar packages. How many people predicted the crash and made money? VERY FEW, and we all know who they are…. Collectively, they lost hundreds of Billions if not Trillions. I guess in your own fantasy they never made mistakes.

You have a hard time distinguishing between what should have happened to what actually happened. You really think very few people made money on Wall Street before/during/after the crash? What's with all of the reports of billions of dollars in bonuses? What's the unemployment rate for Ivy League Wall Streeters? I'm guessing pretty low.

No one ever said they didn't make mistakes. Please quote where I said they never made mistakes. I hear the crickets chirping already.

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

Serpentor says

ok, if we’re going to play that game: show me where I said he’s underwater?

I like crickets

Sorry–i didn’t answer. You are right–you didn’t say that. I inferred it from your earlier posts…

no, you put words in my mouth.

What I said, was he bought an overpriced house, and he has doubts and is trying to justfy his purchas on this forum. Will it go under water, and if it does will he admit it? nobody knows and nobody cares.

ch_tah says

Serpentor says

are you kidding me? most of wallstreet got BAILED OUT with Trillion dollar packages. How many people predicted the crash and made money? VERY FEW, and we all know who they are…. Collectively, they lost hundreds of Billions if not Trillions. I guess in your own fantasy they never made mistakes.

You have a hard time distinguishing between what should have happened to what actually happened. You really think very few people made money on Wall Street before/during/after the crash? What’s with all of the reports of billions of dollars in bonuses? What’s the unemployment rate for Ivy League Wall Streeters? I’m guessing pretty low.
No one ever said they didn’t make mistakes. Please quote where I said they never made mistakes. I hear the crickets chirping already.

Are you kidding me? Seriously? the billions of dollars of bonuses came from the TAXPAYERS! yes they were smart because the put the right people in the goverment so that when shit went down, they get paid whether or not they failed. Are you living in a fantasy world or something? wow! The unemployment rate for wallstreet is low because YOU and I are paying for their fat paychecks.

Yes, I know! I'm not happy about it, but it what it is. I wrote my representative to fight against TARP. I did the little I could. Like I said, you have a hard time separating what should have happened from what actually happened. You keep hoping that the world is going to turn into a fair place. These past few years should have taught you that it is not. Tax cuts for the rich. No care for the deficit by either party. Bailouts to everyone. It's all absurd. But you know what, it's all happening.

Nice, no comment about "they never made mistakes." You criticize tat for understanding something you clearly insinuated, yet when you completely fabricate words and put them in my mouth, you have no comment. Weak.

ok let me get this straight. You admit they are screwing you, yet you worship them because of their fancy degree. You know they screwed up and you're the one that bailed them out, yet you take their prediction like the word of god because they have a fancy degree. what planet do you live on?

Serpentor says

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

Serpentor says

ok, if we’re going to play that game: show me where I said he’s underwater?

I like crickets

Sorry–i didn’t answer. You are right–you didn’t say that. I inferred it from your earlier posts…

no, you put words in my mouth.
What I said, was he bought an overpriced house, and he has doubts and is trying to justfy his purchas on this forum. Will it go under water, and if it does will he admit it? nobody knows and nobody cares.

What we do know is that you won't admit it when you are wrong, since you were wrong about housing prices and stocks in 2009 and wouldn't even address my question. Stones, glass houses, ...

ch_tah says

Nice, no comment about “they never made mistakes.” You criticize tat for understanding something you clearly insinuated, yet when you completely fabricate words and put them in my mouth, you have no comment. Weak.

Did you buy a house? yes. you admitted.
Do you live in the Fortress? based on your previous post, most likely.
Are Fortress houses overpriced? Using historical metrics, rent vs Buy calculations, Local income vs prices: yes.

Are you going to admit that you have doubts, of course not... if you are so happy about your purchase, why would you be grasping at straws trying to come up with reasons on how prices can go up (especially when you admitted that prices are likely to go down)

ch_tah says

Serpentor says

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

Serpentor says

ok, if we’re going to play that game: show me where I said he’s underwater?

I like crickets

Sorry–i didn’t answer. You are right–you didn’t say that. I inferred it from your earlier posts…

no, you put words in my mouth.
What I said, was he bought an overpriced house, and he has doubts and is trying to justfy his purchas on this forum. Will it go under water, and if it does will he admit it? nobody knows and nobody cares.

What we do know is that you won’t admit it when you are wrong, since you were wrong about housing prices and stocks in 2009 and wouldn’t even address my question. Stones, glass houses, …

answer what questions? did you ask me something?
show me my predictions for 2009. Mouth words shovel.

Where is the worship of them? What prediction did I take from anyone? I see what the Fed's and Fed gov't plan is. Inflation. Why do you keep making stuff up???

I do think Bernanke is a very smart person. Mr. Fantastic posted his name for some reason. I posted his stats - something that Mr. Fantastic won't do apparently.

Klarek essentially tried to call me an idiot for thinking that higher rates and higher prices can go hand-in-hand, so I found an article written a few days ago basically saying the same thing. I figured if someone from Columbia said it, at least I have some company in the idiot bin. I didn't cite her article for any predictions.

Serpentor says

ch_tah says

Nice, no comment about “they never made mistakes.” You criticize tat for understanding something you clearly insinuated, yet when you completely fabricate words and put them in my mouth, you have no comment. Weak.

Did you buy a house? yes. you admitted.

Do you live in the Fortress? based on your previous post, most likely.

Are Fortress houses overpriced? Using historical metrics, rent vs Buy calculations, Local income vs prices: yes.
Are you going to admit that you have doubts, of course not… if you are so happy about your purchase, why would you be grasping at straws trying to come up with reasons on how prices can go up (especially when you admitted that prices are likely to go down)

None of that has any relevance to your comment about nobody made mistakes.

Serpentor said:
answer what questions? did you ask me something?
show me my predictions for 2009. Mouth words shovel.

See above. It's copied here too:

Wednesday, 22 Dec 2010 at 1:14 pm | top | quote | email this | flag | edit
tat is correct. You assume there were only 2 choices. If given those choices, I’d rather just keep my cash rather than waste it on a fancy car. But, why do you completely disregard the third option of prices going up? You criticize me for denying reality, yet you don’t even consider prices going up as a possibility at all. Did you believe housing prices couldn’t go up in 2009? They did. Did you believe that stocks couldn’t go up in 2009? Prices really went up there and are still going up.
--------------

Are you denying that you made those predictions?

Did I think stocks were going to go up in 2009? I never made any predictions but yes, I made money in 2009 with stocks (and will be for 2010 as well). did you?

Did prices in homes go up in 2009, in general prices crashed. Did some areas go up some because of goverment intervention? most likely, but in general prices crashed.

Price going up? haha. sure, in some areas... but given every single factor that has been discussed:I have my money on prices going down by 2013. Short term fluctions I can't control and I don't care. Houses are not like stocks where you can daytrade.

Serpentor says

Did I think stocks were going to go up in 2009? I never made any predictions but yes, I made money in 2009 with stocks. did you?

I did. Since your claim is unverifiable, but doesn't actually answer the question, I guess congratulations are in order.

I would say again, that TREND and or even a 15% below trend is what might should be expected to be where prices are going to end up in 2011.

ch_tah says

None of that has any relevance to your comment about nobody made mistakes.

who made what comment?

Cvoc13 says

I would say again, that TREND and or even a 15% below trend is what might should be expected to be where prices are going to end up in 2011.

Thats as good of a guess as any... but I'm thinking 2013 is when we'll see the full long term effect of Alt-A/Option-Arm

For some regions prices havent gone up and havent been crashing. No boom No Bust...

Well except detroit

Serpentor says

What I said, was he bought an overpriced house, and he has doubts and is trying to justfy his purchas on this forum. Will it go under water, and if it does will he admit it? nobody knows and nobody cares.

My apologies. My point was that you are completely making up this motive for ch-tah. Why can't someone post an article that says something positive without them having some sort of nefarious agenda?

Is everyone who posts negative articles on here secretly trying to make home prices crash so they can buy for a cheaper price?

Seriously--that is so ridiculous. I like pat.net, but nothing anyone says or posts here has any measurable effect on the overall housing market.

Serpentor says

Did prices in homes go up in 2009, in general prices crashed. Did some areas go up some because of goverment intervention? most likely, but in general prices crashed.

You really do live in a fantasy world. Prices generally went up. About 10%.

Please post ANY article saying prices "crashed" in 2009. Anything. The crickets are standing by...

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

What I said, was he bought an overpriced house, and he has doubts and is trying to justfy his purchas on this forum. Will it go under water, and if it does will he admit it? nobody knows and nobody cares.

My apologies. My point was that you are completely making up this motive for ch-tah. Why can’t someone post an article that says something positive without them having some sort of nefarious agenda?
Is everyone who posts negative articles on here secretly trying to make home prices crash so they can buy for a cheaper price?
Seriously–that is so ridiculous. I like pat.net, but nothing anyone says or posts here has any measurable effect on the overall housing market.

this is a public forum and I'm entitled to my opinion.

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

Did prices in homes go up in 2009, in general prices crashed. Did some areas go up some because of goverment intervention? most likely, but in general prices crashed.

You really do live in a fantasy world. Prices generally went up. About 10%.
Please post ANY article saying prices “crashed” in 2009. Anything. The crickets are standing by…

Right.. just because I misspoke about one year, I live in a fantasy world... has the underlying problem been fixed? How about massive intervention by the government, vast majority of mortgages backed by FHA, massive printing of money, tax credit handouts? Is that the only thing you can find to criticize me on?

And you are on the side of a guy who thinks following the advice of the people that caused this mess is a good idea because they have fancy degrees and high SAT scores? I see unicorns!

tatupu70 says

Please post ANY article saying prices “crashed” in 2009. Anything.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1r-5.pdf

B.100 Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations
Line 4 -- Assets -- Tangible Assets -- Real Estate -- Households -- At market value

2005 $22.0T
2006 $22.7T
2007 $20.9T
2008 $17.4T
1Q09 $16.5T
2Q09 $16.7T
3Q09 $16.9T
4Q09 $17.0T
1Q10 $17.1T
2Q10 $17.2T
3Q10 $16.5T

well, I guess that since these numbers are excluding investor-owned properties, what the Fed's falling asset value could represent is a transfer of wealth from the middle class to the rentier class.

but zillow does back up the idea that prices now are in fact approaching the 1Q09 lows in many areas.

2008 was the Great Crash, 1H09 was when prices found a bottom, 2H09 ~ 1H10 was the green chutes period, and 2H10 is . . . mixed.