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If this housing bubble were an animal, what animal would it be?

By praetorian follow praetorian   2005 Oct 8, 2:25pm 3,595 views   32 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Clearly, we need a new thread.

Also, just as clearly, we need a new look. Something dynamic and fun. Something red. Something the gets the kids involved, and makes coffee.

Since pants are already taken, I suggest animals. When one thinks about it deeply, it becomes clear that the key to this bubble is: if this bubble were an animal, what sort of animal, precisely, would it be?

My vote?

The humble domestic cat.

Mainly because I don't like cat's and I don't like this bubble. Of course, I grew up with cats, and I most certainly did not grow up with real estate bubbles. Also, I have met a few cats that I like and I have yet to meet a real estate bubble that I like. So maybe the analogy doesn't really hold up all that well. I'm a big enough man to admit that.

The point isn't that *I*, gentle reader, can come up with the perfect analogy, the point is rather that I really wish that Cal had beaten UCLA tonight. I mean, for f**ks sake, we KILLED them in total yardage. No, wait. Strike that. The real point is that perhaps you, or perhaps all of us in our collective wisdom, can arrive at exactly what the hell the point of this thread is.

cheers,
prat

#housing

1   praetorian   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 2:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'm going to defend the cat. Note:

-The bubble's smug, self satisfied air
-The bubble's imperviousness to reason
-The bubble's just-asking-for-a-kick-in-the-ribs-ishness
-The intensely annoying sorts of people who love and promote the bubble
-The fact that dog's are obviously and infinitely superior to the bubble
-The fact that every morning people have to get up and scoop the litter pan of this bubble
-The fact that ancient egyptians apparently worshiped the housing bubbles of their time

I could go on, but, in the interest of good sportsmanship, I won't.

Cheers,
prat

2   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 2:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What happened to the other thread? Just wondering...I actually wrote a pretty long post on there while I was in NYC yesterday. Damn.

3   praetorian   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 2:49pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What happened to the other thread? Just wondering…I actually wrote a pretty long post on there while I was in NYC yesterday. Damn.

Ahh, please, don't let my post-UCLA-loss ravings stop you from posting sane, interesting tidbits. Feel free to move the comment over, or to continue the thread in the previous posting.

What we really need is a message board. This whole blog thing has ceased to be workable. I'll get right on that as soon as I'm done fuming about tonights game.

Cheers,
prat

4   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 2:50pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I really wish that Cal had beaten UCLA

And Ohio State losing to Penn State? What's that? C'mon. Maybe these are the true signals that the bubble-bust is upon us.

5   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 6:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If this housing bubble were an animal, what animal would it be?

Blowfish.

As with the housing bubble, we need to handle blowfish very carefully or we will have a case of "fatal food poisoning".

6   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 6:03pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I think the bubble would be a phoenix - that is, a mythical animal.

Are you saying that bubble is as mythical as a phoenix, or are you saying that the Phoenix bubble is mythical?

7   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 6:04pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

October is here, but where’s the anticipated cataclysmic event indicating a crash?

You will get a free beer if I am wrong.

(Drink responsibly)

8   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 6:13pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

By the way, in terms of new construction in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, I see mostly condos, townhouses, and relatively few zero-lot houses being built.

I see this as an evidence of the housing bubble. Builders/developers see that higher density housing can fetch just as much housing because of price compression. The result is over-building as a reaction to the pent-up demand.

I think old-style properties which actually have some land will become even more valuable because of the shift to higher density housing.

No contest.

9   KDLady   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 1:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The Python that just exploded while trying to swallow an alligator whole.

Greed = Explosion - I think it applies here.

10   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 1:35am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

As with the housing bubble, we need to handle blowfish very carefully or we will have a case of “fatal food poisoning”.

I am so not surprised you brought in an edible (though dangerously so) animal Peter. I'm just surprised you didn't try to make it sushi somehow. ;)

I had an interesting conversation yesterday. I told a guy that we were renting our house and looking to buy in a few years. And I was so surprised that he actually tried to argue that the housing market might keep going up. Most people I talk to these days don't even dispute housing is really out of whack. His rational was that "they said the BA would go down 10 years ago" implying that it hadn't. Since I don't know that many specifics about BA real estate 10 years ago, I didn't try to argue the point. In fact I really just let it go figuring he's probably super leveraged and nervous about it. The one obvious ppoint I could have made was that the Sacto area sure as heck isn't the BA; but why ruin someone's day.

11   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 1:41am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The housing bubble is like the mythical hydra. It starts out with three heads and every time you cut off one it grows three more. It's greedy and voratious and takes Herculean efforts to kill.

12   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 1:42am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Or maybe I should say it takes Greenspanean efforts to kill?

13   Jamie   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 2:04am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"The Python that just exploded while trying to swallow an alligator whole. "

This one is perfect, Karrie, and so timely too.

But to play the game, I'll try to come up with my own metaphor, and since Prat chose cats, which I love, I can't help but choose...

This bubble is like the dog, too busy sniffing its own butt and licking its privates just because it can, to realize that there are bigger problems to attend.

14   Jamie   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 2:08am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"Feel free to move the comment over, or to continue the thread in the previous posting."

Randy H is talking about a thread that magically disappeared yesterday or Friday night, never to be seen again. Bizarre. I can't even remember what the topic was, even though I posted on it...so if I were a more paranoid sort, I might suggest that the contents of the thread has been erased from our collective memory. But that would be over the top, and not taking into consideration my notoriously bad short-term memory.

15   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 3:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

talking about a thread that magically disappeared yesterday or Friday night, never to be seen again.

If that thread can be recovered, there were some good insights there from lots of folks. It was related to stagflation risks and the real-world effects. I think I also dispelled the myth that I was an academic in there. Oh well.

I would say the housing bubble/finance bubble/credit bubble is akin to a coral reef. It's not just one animal, but a bunch of animals that work together quite well if more or less left alone. But it needs to be protected, because it can be easily poisoned by those who don't respect it. It has natural cycles: sometimes it contracts a bit, naturally. But over the long run it will continue to grow and thrive in a beautiful equilibrium.

16   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 4:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

We’ll let Greenspan put the apple in his mouth!

Roasted suckling pig!

17   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 4:58am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Um yeah whatever. I am 30 years old and I know nobody - NOBODY - that has been given a dime from their grandparents for down payments on a home. I love how people make these blanket statements with absolutely nothing to back them up - this guy didn’t even come up with a single anecdote.

I personally know three people whose grandparents floated them the down, and then didn't want the money back.

18   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 5:03am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It would be a chupacabra

19   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 5:04am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Mainly because I don’t like cat’s

Prat, prat, prat, why must you slander the furry little darlings?

20   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 5:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Mainly because I don’t like cat’s

Prat, prat, prat, why must you slander the furry little darlings?

You know, my cats do try to follow this blog. Their feelings may be hurt...

21   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 5:26am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

My cat doesn't care what anyone thinks about him.

22   praetorian   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 6:58am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Prat, prat, prat, why must you slander the furry little darlings?

Because I am, as the saying goes, a dog person. I can never shake the feeling that a cat, no matter how nice, is ready, if the opportunity presents itself, to kick the chair out beneath me when I am in the act of sitting down. Insolence. Pure, rank insolence.

Irrational, I'll admit. But there it is. The little bastards.

Now, here is why the housing bubble is NOT a python:

Python is the name of a relatively pleasant programming language. Housing Bubble is not. QED.

cheers,
prat

23   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 7:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

“the market is not out of whack but in equilibrium.”

When I read statements like this I have to laugh. Market Equilibrium is merely a theoretical concept. No market is ever _in equilibrium_, only closer or further from the theoretical equilibrium. Equilibrium is only useful for modelling the direction of future change. In the real world, most if not all variables are dynamic (if they weren't they'd be constants). Housing is not now, nor has it ever been "in equilibrium". I agree with allah's assessment of his reasoning. Interest rates are rising at this very moment, population growth is about the same, if anything it is slightly lower (but still growing, only a tad slower) because of the tiny net decrease in immigration...this weekends FT has an article about that. Incomes are rising, but slower than aggregate inflation, and housing stock is actually growing faster than population in CA because of the large emmigration out of CA recently...I think both DC and others pointed to this some weeks back.

24   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 4:12pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Better yet what kind of animal would MassivePrick (MP) be? My vote is a scared little monkey. He/She/It has taken to post using multiple identies, this time from 24.5.252.147 aka greenspansham, marinawannabeya, etc. Wow, amazing, perhaps a better tack would be to just go away. If you are so very frightened that someone will actually alert your superiors at CSFB regarding your malfesance, perhaps a better tack would be to JUST GO AWAY. Perhaps one of the more enlighted bunch could explain what is to be gained by posting using multiple identies? Is this troll that frightened of his/her/its comments being forwarded to CSFB?

25   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 9, 4:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

reason ( reason@reason.com / ) (IP: 198.240.130.75 )

OrgName: RIPE Network Coordination Centre
OrgID: RIPE
Address: P.O. Box 10096
City: Amsterdam
StateProv:
PostalCode: 1001EB
Country: NL

Ok, now go to http://www.ripe.net/

Paste 198.240.130.75 into the whois field. Ahhh. CSFB

26   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 10, 6:41am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

And the Oscar goes to…..ME! I played Marina Prime beautifully didn’t I?

If this is true you should be embarrassed, but apparently you have no shame.

27   Jamie   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 10, 10:41am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LOL, now Google is giving us ads on this thread for Tidy Cat and and cat litter pans.

28   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 10, 10:48am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LOL, now Google is giving us ads on this thread for Tidy Cat and and cat litter pans.

Gotta try Tidy Cats(r) Brand.

29   Jamie   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 10, 12:33pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Be sure to get the clumping formula. :-P

30   KDLady   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 11, 3:26am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ha! Now the Python ate a Simese Cat - poor kitty - bad python

By any name, the gigs almost up -

Real estate bubble -

'pop' goes the weasel

31   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 11, 9:54am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

wouldn't it be "pop goes the python?"

32   KDLady   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 11, 10:46am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Indeed it would! Here's a really interesting read on SF real estate ... scroll down a bit on the site:

http://www.socketsite.com/


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