patrick.net

socal2 says

I will give them another week or two to get their shit together

They won't get their shit together, which brings to a logical question - why the fuck we need all of these high-paid administrators if hey are helpless and stupid at time of crisis? Our University administrators act as if they have never taught a class - they suggest preposterous solutions that are not based in reality.

Islam is also a virus.

... except the crisis is never over.

theoakman says

Their economy can't function without truly capitalistic nations to leech off of.

Trump was right again... they need us more than we need them. Our (nominally) democratic country is more resilient. Also, having much more land and other natural resources per capita creates an additional buffer.

WookieMan says

Gonna disagree here. Not saying it's a hoax, but we're in the infancy of numbers on this. It's a new virus. No one really knows jack shit about it. I think some of the models pumping out 2.2M are obscene and outright bull shit. Not sure why or the end goal, but the math doesn't add up.

It never has added up. China and Italy were reporting hundreds of thousands are going to die. When it got here, the media said they were flattening out.
Now America has more cases than anywhere in the world and we're all going to die, and turns out China and Italy's numbers weren't bad at all.

They can't even keep the facts straight.

The lack of interviewing survivors is stunningly suspect. The news loves dragging victims and survivors out, where in the fuck are all of the Lime Light Hoggers, that survived the China Virus of Doom?

marcus says

So he needs to use some psychology here, and not make it about him. That's pretty close to impossible for him, becasue if it's successful, he wants credit. THat's so much more important to him than helping America.

He just did a complete flip on opening up for Easter and extending until the end of April....? He's seems to be listening and you're projecting his future actions with no basis for that besides Trump is bad in your opinion. Totally confused on this statement. It makes zero sense. He had to eat his words on that goal and backtrack. Easter would have been in his personal best interests....

I get your hate for Trump and that's your right. But at least make sense.

It's time for landlords and slumlords to chip in. I think though they'll shoot themselves in the foot if they play hardball as renters who can't afford will stop paying anyways and good luck evicting during the CV pandemic AND finding a new renter. Should be good for house prices and rents to come down significantly, at least around 25% IMO.

Their economy can't function without truly capitalistic nations to leech off of.

Is Tom Hanks dead yet?

True pandemics are real, as history has taught us. Measured and extreme responses COULD be justified in some instances.

I remember in New Orleans seeing the historical museum where they showed pictures during the yellow fever epidemics that occurred nearly every year. The affluent upper classes fled the city for months. They had pictures of patients three stacked into single hospital beds. Ireland sent waves of Catholic nuns to be nurses, and they had logs where the nuns died like flies.

However, Covid is so stage managed, you see the guys wearing dragon masks and pulling strings, the motives are suspect as false flag domestic terrorism. A true pandemic would have a different arc.

Fuck the economy and the people, as long as they get what they want politically.

Globalists are saying: "See! You NEED us to manage your pathetic lives and fortunes internationally! And if you don't let us, we can burn it down anytime we want!"

January 31st: Evil Trumpler Administration Restricts Entry Into U.S. From China

The travel disruption sent shocks through the stock market and rattled industries that depend on the flow of goods and people between the world’s two largest economies.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/business/china-travel-coronavirus.html

February 10th: New York State sues Trump Admin, outraged State is being 'punished' for giving illegals (who haven't presented vax evidence or had health checks, btw) and non-citizens licenses, which to bypass much domestic airport security and travel all over the country like crazy.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-travel/new-york-sues-trump-administration-over-exclusion-from-traveler-programs-idUSKBN204211

February 11th: Reuters whinges about travelers from Asia and Europe being inconvenienced.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-travel/new-york-sues-trump-administration-over-exclusion-from-traveler-programs-idUSKBN204211

March 10th: Toronto Star angry Trump is turning away Canadians from the border who had also traveled to China recently.
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2020/03/10/donald-trumps-response-to-coronavirus-has-canada-feeling-the-heat.html

March 18th: OrangeHITLER and Beloved Metrosexual Man Trudeau agree to shut US-Can border.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/u-s-canada-agree-close-border-non-essential-traffic-trump-n1162796

March 11-14th: Drumpf criticized for banning Europe flights. This is literally days before deaths in Spain and Italy cross several hundred per day
https://www.indy100.com/article/trump-coronavirus-europe-travel-ban-speech-watch-video-9396331
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/11/21175944/trump-coronavirus-covid-19-travel-ban-europe-financial-relief-emergency-declaration

March 16th: CNN whinges about their returning from study abroad children & globe trotting executive partners having to be screened for Covid-19, insisting they are a better class of people who need no such treatment (while insisting Trump's reaction was too slow or insufficient; see above)
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/coronavirus-airport-screening-sunday/index.html

This is bad news for the U.S. housing market as rising unemployment will put off buyers even if mortgage rates remain low. This could eventually lead to lower sales and force sellers to reduce prices, triggering the next U.S. housing market crisis.

Not bad news! Au contraire, this is excellent news for responsible buyers who saved up cash.

Why does the headline never say "Housing becomes more affordable"?

Horndogs will be having sex swinger ocean cruises again by mid April.

Vermont Cutting Off Supply Chain: Big Box Retailers Ordered to Cease In-Person Sales of Non-Essential Items.

https://accd.vermont.gov/press-releases/agency-commerce-and-community-development-directs-%E2%80%9Cbig-box%E2%80%9D-retailers-cease-person


I’m not one to be an alarmist, but this shit can bubble up to be some kind of civil war. If you take a bunch of people that are largely fine, tell them there’s a vague illness out there that’s basically the flu, put them out of work, try forcing them to stay home, and then cut off all their supplies, they’re going to riot at some point.

Hausmeister T says

Good god this slob is part of the problem. Too dumb to clean up your fucking hands before making a meme? Fucking gross ass fingernails. This hand looks like AIDS.

Washington Post is fake news, and otherwise can't be trusted.

Fuck globalism, who would have thought china is where it would start.

Fucking lifeguards in SoCal is a special breed of Nazis: instead of sticking to their title job, you know, saving lives, they took on enforcement of alcohol bans, leash laws and now the fucking SIP orders.

One of these fucks once drove literally half a mile out to the ocean on a narrow sandbar to inform my BIL that his dog's leash was longer than allowed. I kid you not. They were alone on the sand bar with no other people or dogs anywhere near them but the fucking fuck had to abandon his post and drive all the way out to go full Eric Cartman in the middle of nowhere.

Shaman says

2020 is going to go down in history as the worst fucking year of this fucking millennia so far

I'm negative, but not super negative. May 1st we need to open up regardless of the old people dying flu. No questions asked. If more people die so be it. Me included. If we're going to call it a war, treat it like one and everyone take on some god damn risk. The alternative is economic and likely physical death either way. This is coming from someone that doesn't even have to work right now and my wife doesn't need to either. But we need people working. 28 fucking days still.... I want a fucking burger and beer at a bar NOW.

Shaman says

It looks worse now. 6.6 million filed for unemployment last week which would throw the scaling on your chart all off.
That’s 10 million newly unemployed in two fucking weeks!

My guess is 7-10M next week. That was just the restaurant industry over the last couple weeks. Their suppliers are next. Then all sorts of shit. Non-essential work from home people are coming in the next 7 days, be ready. It will surpass 20M if this really goes until the end of April. Don't expect your state to be able to handle the UE load. Then the Federal gov. gets blamed.

We're worried about the wrong hockey stick. But whatever. I'm a ruthless ass hoe that wants old people dead.

They are now saying in California to not expect the schools to open back up until next Fall.

Right now they are doing 3 days a week on Zoom for about an hour and that should ramp up with daily lesson plans and homework next week.

I will give them another week or two to get their shit together before I get pissed.

I have to teach my class online at university because of corona, and students (a) do not log in to listen (ca. 40% attend as opposed to 80-90% for in-person class), and (b) even ones who tune in and listen do not get more complex things as I do not get feedback which I have for in-person class (if they become too quiet or too noisy, I know they do not understand etc). Which once again shows that "online education" is a complete scam.

I suggested that our school cancel a few weeks of classes now and then simply stick these weeks back at end of semester. But that was denied because it would eat into SUMMER TUITION revenue, showing that schools nowadays are about PROFIT! and not learning and education. This is a clusterfuck of yuuge proportions.

https://noqreport.com/2020/04/01/its-time-for-reparations-from-china/

It’s time for reparations… from China

Lancet published a study indicating that the Chinese Communist Party is directly culpable for 95% of all COVID 19 cases worldwide. The CCP delayed quarantine measures in Hubai Province by three extra weeks, allowing five million travelers to enter and leave the hot zone, distributing Wuhan Flu widely around the world. Along with this malfeasance, the CCP also falsified information about the disease and its prevalence. All of this information slowed the response, killing more people.

The US Government has appropriated over $2 trillion to respond to the pandemic, of which 95% is directly attributable to CCP misconduct. In legal language, the CCP has committed a tort against America. If a US magistrate were to conclude that the CCP and its proxies, the Peoples’ Liberation Army and CCP-owned businesses, were at fault in this injury, then it would be possible to have a $2 trillion judgment against the CCP.

There are several possible ways to do this. The simplest is by Presidential Declaration. This has the awful side effect of eliminating a lot of President Trump’s negotiating room. The second obvious approach is a lawsuit. This would take forever winding through the Courts, and while this is happening, Treasury securities held by the Chinese will be progressively redeemed, doing nothing for the US.

The third way is one that is common in US political theater. In this case, either the Treasury Department or the Department of Health and Human Services (or both!) creates an administrative hearing on the complaint. The outcome is a foregone conclusion. The CCP is hit with an administrative penalty of $2 trillion. Note that this isn’t even in the same zip code as the military or cyber. It’s from an administrative law court. Please note that this isn’t an issue of a default by the Federal Government. It’s recovering a bad debt.

Now comes the fun. All of the $1.08 trillion in Chinese-held Treasuries is ultimately under the control of our Treasury Department. When a T-bill or bond is redeemed at maturity, the Treasury gives the money to the holder. That means that the Treasury has complete control over $1.08 trillion in Chinese money. And that gives it a host of options.

The first step is to demand satisfaction of the judgment. The CCP will almost certainly tell Secretary Mnuchin to pound sand. They don’t have the cash, and “it would be an act of war” to require them to pay funds that “they don’t owe.” At that point, he will freeze all the Chinese assets. This brings them to the table. Absolutely anything becomes possible here.

Secretary Mnuchin can remind the Chinese, in a most public manner, of how they lied to the world about the virus, refused to quarantine Wuhan, are continuing to lie about their malevolent acts, and are actively pursuing cyber warfare against the West regarding the virus. “By the way, the $2 trillion is just the first tranche of damages against the CCP.”

The Chinese economy is already in shambles, and US Treasury instruments are the reserves that prop it up. If we find the CCP in default on the judgment, we have the right to seize those reserves to satisfy it. This is a fundamental premise in law. If the Court finds against me, the plaintiff has the right to take my property if I don’t pay.

Now we have to assess how this plays out. If we void all the $1.08 trillion of debt at once, China crashes. They will take it as an act of war. Wounded animals don’t play nice. Especially ones with sharp claws. So here is where Trump steps in. He has a good personal relationship with Xi, and perhaps he can persuade him to take actions we’d like.

Maybe the disputed islands in the South China Sea can become joint Coast Guard bases. Perhaps instead of all at once, the Treasury securities can simply be as they come due to pay down the judgment. That would spread the pain over ten years or so. We could offer to roll short term notes at higher rates for longer (30 years?) notes at minimal interest. Either option would help our debt and debt service. What’s not to like about cutting our debt by a trillion or so?

Can Xi save enough face to stay in power? The President will obviously be concerned with pushing him just hard enough to get concessions. Or will the Chinese society convulse as its economy implodes?

There aren’t any clear answers. But an administrative order for Chinese reparations might give Donald Trump the leverage to do all sorts of things we may not even know about now.

Tim Aurora says

Not sure why. If we were ready like Korea and Germany, we could have avoided a disaster in deaths and economy..

Good thing we weren't "ready" like virtually all of Western Europe with their nationalized healthcare systems that has 2 to 10 times the death rate as the US per capita.

Hi TPB,

At my employer(several thousand employees), 12 had contracted it, 5 of whom I know on a working relationship basis.

One person out of 150 or so in my immediate workplace has come in contact with someone who had it, and was supposed to quarantine but like a moron showed up at work.

It’s no doubt way overblown by the media, but it’s a very real thing and your lack of empirical evidence doesn’t disprove it. Basically, you are barking up the wrong tree on this one.

WOMP WOMP!

Russians reap what they sow!

Democrats and Never Trumpers have to be absolute idiots to push this line of argument when we have soooooo much video from major Democrat politicians, Media and even WHO doctors telling everyone to not panic and live their lives.

Worse - we have plenty of video of these same morons calling Trump raaccist for closing borders back in January while they were telling everyone to go hug a Chinese and party in Chinatown........while they were aping Communist China's propaganda.

Sorry Democrats - there is no way you are going to be able to turn this into a Katrina on Trump. But don't let that stop you from trying to divide our nation during a time of crisis with lies and half truths. That is what you always do...

The shocking thing is that she was let go.

This is the exact same class of people that want the ration imposing technocracy imposed, because they will be members. They have contempt for you and cannot be trusted to put your best interests first.

ThreeBays says

The question of course for anyone who doesn't have pretzel logic is, was it worth imploding the economy to go from a miserable 2.2+ million dead to a manageable 81,000?

The 2.2M was based on a deathrate 10x the empirical rate. The empirical rate itself also probably over-reported considering people on death's door are dying WITH CV and recorded as dying FROM CV.

ThreeBays says

I'm curious Patrick, what turned you from being an awesome voice for overpriced housing to a troll who spreads harmful misinformation?

Ahh, to be young and stupid. Believe the authorities trying to spread hysteria if ya want. Be part of the problem. You would've been a nazi in 1930's Germany, and a Bolshevik in 1910. ALL the experts and scientists were behind it, meaning it must have been the right thing to do right?

‘Border Security Is Also Health Security,’ Trump Says at Rally.

Now check out this piece, January 31st:

Public health experts have warned that travel bans are not effective at stemming the spread of a virus and can make responding to an outbreak more challenging.

“From a public health perspective, there is limited effectiveness. And then there are a host of other reasons why they can actually be counterproductive,” said Catherine Worsnop, who studies international cooperation during global health emergencies at the University of Maryland.

The World Health Organization, which declared the outbreak a global health emergency this week, has recommended against any travel or trade restrictions in response to the outbreak. Member countries, however, do not have to comply with that guidance.

“Although travel restrictions may intuitively seem like the right thing to do, this is not something that WHO usually recommends,” said Tarik Jašarević, a WHO spokesperson. “This is because of the social disruption they cause and the intensive use of resources required,” he added.

...



“People want their government to do something when these outbreaks are happening, and adopting a border restriction is a visible policy that people think works,” Worsnop said.

Enacting such a ban would go directly against the recommendation of the WHO, which has said countries must inform the organization of any travel restrictions they put in place.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/31/as-far-right-calls-for-china-travel-ban-health-experts-warn-coronavirus-response-would-suffer/

Imagine if Trump had followed WHO and "Very special important academic experts" back at the end of January. He'd be blamed for following their advice; this is just one of many pieces criticizing Trump for shutting down air traffic with CHY-na.

Feb 1st - China angry at US border shutdown:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-criticizes-u-s-border-closure-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-n1128161

Feb 10th - Even VOX admits CHY-na lied about the severity:
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/10/21124881/coronavirus-outbreak-china-li-wenliang-world-health-organization

Patrick says

PANIC!

Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?

You're recasting it in a way that doesn't allow for the ruin of OrangeManBad and all his works.

And the restoration of the Neoliberal-SJW open borders brigade who sneered and raged when Trump began shutting down traffic way back at the end of January.

The very same people are now raging at the idea that the domestic economy reopens in a week or so.