patrick.net

Yes, it's impressive how the fiat pile whittles down and deflates so quickly. Quite a fleet of Hummers gone with the will 'o the wisp. Fortunately, it effects my day to day living not a whit yet, though I would allow that a sufficient disaster could lead to some lifestyle rearrangements depending.

Money ain't worth shit if it don't buy food, and a car ain't worth shit without the gas to run it.

I define the stock market as the Wilshire 5000 index.
Presently it's down 18% since January 1.

I'm a little bit bummed.
Easy come easy go I guess.

I'm going to convert some of my IRA to a Roth IRA.

I'm sure it'll go back up, but I'm in a hurry because I'm retirement age.

I don't have new money to invest; if I did I'd be buying.
Edit
My rules for investing:
Invest your money every month after paying the rent (or mortgage if you must)
You must have a Roth IRA.
If you qualify, get an HSA and invest it in stock mutual funds.
If you have a side gig, get a SEP-IRA.
Invest for capital appreciation for 30 years.

If I weren't so lazy and antisocial I would get a job and buy MOAR STOCKS.

I am happy to still be a useless rentier eater for the time being.

DooDahMan says

Rin says

but I'm a Cult of Personality on this forum.

Wow, huh ?

https://patrick.net/post/1317336/2018-07-10-in-the-ancient-world-code-of-hammurabi-

Excerpt: "In ancient times, before Cyrus the Great, Pericles of Athens, and Julius Caesar, the world transitioned from an agrarian-only to a mix of urban and agrarian societies. The Code of Hammurabi was an essential component of how a civilization evolved from its antecedent to its successor. Yes, this was a long time back.

Likewise, in medieval times, the power of the king (and the king only) was limited to a governing set of principles which the Magna Carta had established, making the nobles and the king accountable to the same body of laws. In the centuries following, this evolved into a limited monarchy with a Parliamentary form of govt.

Rin-Wah Law, were men are allowed to fuck w/o palimony/alimony, and be able to focus on their work and hobbies, will unleash the greatest creative minds out there. It will be a time like no other. "

nice picture from wall street raider, was a fun movie

PE ratio bottomed to 14 in 2011 and climbed to 34 in 2022. It is now 20. How low does it go from here ? Down to 15 ?

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio?source=patrick.net

,,,,,,

ARK Innovation ETF is down 69%. This is getting like the dot com stock bubble burst back in 2000-20001, but a lot of the tech companies now are making money unlike a lot of the tech companies from 1997 to 2001.

Everything else in Canada costs more as well. It's how they pay for their lavish welfare benefits.

Yeah, I would take a good long look at China's safety record before trumpeting anything they do. Or just watch Ai Weiwei's documentary, perfect example.

Shades of Daniel Sadek! 2008, second verse, a little bit louder, and a little bit worse.

What could go wrong....

What about the human error inherent in the AI programming?

stereotomy says

What about the human error inherent in the AI programming?

AI will fix that.

Why would China need to save on labor?

Too bad it isn't robots living downwater from the dams.

DooDahMan says

Chinese scientists say they're 3D printing a 590-foot-tall dam by 2024 using AI and robots.

The project will use an AI system with unmanned trucks, bulldozers, rollers, and other equipment.

The researchers say their method eliminates human error and safety concerns for workers. (See Comment Number 1)

China is poised to build a hydropower dam in two years using artificial intelligence, construction robots, and zero human labor, scientists involved in the project said.

The Yangqu dam on the Tibetan plateau is set to be assembled layer by layer, like with 3D printing, The South China Morning Post first reported on Sunday, citing a paper published in April in the peer-reviewed Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology).

If and when it is completed, the ambitious project will likely be the world's tallest structure built using 3D printing processes. The current record is held by a two-story office building in Dubai, which stands 20 feet high....

I will make same comment as Warren Buffet made on crypto..
What is the use of it?
China need jobs.

Sounds like to me, they are just throwing around popular tech hype jargon evil Billionaire Corporate robber barons like to throw around just to avoid closer scrutiny.
It's how Elon got to where he is today.

AI and 3D printing alone is enough to make people not question the millennia of archeology and natural and manmade wonders they'll flood over in the process.

I'm shocked they didn't say it would all be done with Nano particles and ran by Quantum computers.

Clifford Sossin owns a bunch of Carvana shares through his hedge fund CAS Investment Partners. Clifford A. Sosin is the founder and investment manager of CAS Investment Partners. LLC ("CAS"), which he launched in October 2012. Immediately prior to founding CAS, Mr. Sosin was a Director in the Fundamental Investment Group of UBS for five years where he was a senior member of a team analyzing equities and fixed income securities. Prior to UBS, Mr. Sosin was employed as an analyst by Silver Point Capital, a hedge fund which invested in high yield and distressed opportunities, as well as by Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin, a leading investment bank best known for its advisory services with respect to companies requiring financial restructuring. Mr. Sosin earned both a B.S. in Engineering (High Honors) and a B.A, in Economics from Swarthmore College.

Question: How do these people make these huge mistakes? Don't they have any skin in the game?

Where is my WebVan delivery?

Although I have not even heard of Carvana, the name sucks, and the business is absurd; how many places sell used cars?
1. Craigslist
2. eBay
3. ten zillion car dealers

They have so many competitors for their business I can't list them.

The good news is tomorrow Apple will pay me a dividend which will be in additional shares of AAPL.

clambo says

They have so many competitors for their business I can't list them.

AHHA!

You can say the same for taxis..

When there is an overwhelming problem with efficiency, centralization can be beneficial. This is what eBay (was) - sell your junk, it was a garage sale initially but you had far more customers, and customers could find that weird rare item that you didn't know was a weird rare item.

For used cars, I don't think this works. But I have found treasures from people that didn't appreciate them. On one hand you can think "how can you rip these people off knowing they are selling this for 0.0001% of its true worth" but on the other hand "I saved it, some asshole would have bought this for $1 kept it around for a few years, and it would be in a landfill in a few months".

Used cars though aren't like collectibles.

I have a 1933 Ingersoll Mickey Mouse Watch I wear only to weddings (because it's delicate). People think it's cute and odd, my watch is worth several thousand dollars but I need to be very careful with it, it's a child's watch, and any moisture will destroy it. It's nearly 100 years old. Just junk to 90% of the country, a relic to 99% of the country, but it's incredibly rare today. Bet you've never seen the original watch. It was $7 (an enormous sum) back in 1933. Rich people gave these to their spoiled rotten spawn.

There's a huge problem with insurance fraud in Florida.
By odd coincidence, there are a lot of shyster lawyers and sneaky NYC/NJ types in Florida too.

A bird shits on a roof and they put on a new roof and charge the insurance company. Multiply this by thousands of assholes.

Republics are often the victims of their own prosperity and power. The Elite just can't resist.

Then they overexpand, replace native free labor with slave labor, and loot the treasury while the place collapses.

For my house in sillycon valley, I looked at the policy coverage one day and realized it was inadequate. This was some years back when it was worth about 1M, and so were the other homes on the street. But the coverage said $300,000. I'm not big on buying insurance, as I usually prefer to self insure, but I make exceptions and buy insurance to protect against uncommon tail risk events that could significantly disrupt my life financially, such as a house fire. I prefer to pay a small regular known sum to avoid the chance of losing it all.

Anyway, I called the company and said 300k seemed too low. They said according to their records, that is the typical cost to do a total rebuild in my area. I couldnt believe it, because my neighbor just got a quote to add an extra room in back of his house and it was nearly 400k. So I searched for building costs per sq ft in my area, and sure enough, the cost to rebuild was likely 500-700 for a basic build. But that cost is assuming normal market conditions - if my house gets totaled somehow, there's a chance so do other homes in the area, which would cause home builders to be busy, and raise prices. So I increased the coverage. Oddly, the insurance company was resistant and kept encouraging me to leave it low, but they eventually did it in exchange for a slightly higher fee. I think I doubled the coverage (cant recall) but the premium didnt double, I think it was only like 40% more, which I was happy with. Now that I think about it, I should revisit that limit again now that house prices are fucking stupid. I suppose home insurance is a protective PUT of some limited sorts.

HunterTits says

1) Founders never intended for SCOTUS to have the power it does, despite what this moron says.

IMHO, it's more that it was a type of oversight.

Alexander Hamilton's Federal Papers no 78 says:

"According to the plan of the convention, all the judges who may be appointed by the United States are to hold their offices during good behaviour, which is conformable to the most approved of the state constitutions; and among the rest, to that of this state. Its propriety having been drawn into question by the adversaries of that plan, is no light symptom of the rage for objection which disorders their imaginations and judgments. The standard of good behaviour for the continuance in office of the judicial magistracy is certainly one of the most valuable of the modern improvements in the practice of government. In a monarchy it is an excellent barrier to the despotism of the prince: In a republic it is a no less excellent barrier to the encroachments and oppressions of the representative body. And it is the best expedient which can be devised in any government, to secure a steady, upright and impartial administration of the laws."

And Al adds to his idea that:

"It proves incontestibly that the judiciary is beyond comparison the weakest of the three departments of power;* that it can never attack with success either of the other two; and that all possible care is requisite to enable it to defend itself against their attacks. It equally proves, that though individual oppression may now and then proceed from the courts of justice, the general liberty of the people can never be endangered from that quarter; I mean, so long as the judiciary remains truly distinct from both the legislative and executive."

So all and all, I suspect that the Founders did not see that SC justices were going to be able to stay for 40+ years at the time, since back in those days, life expectancy was in one's 50s, or 60s when really healthy. The fact that Jefferson & Madison lived into their 80s would almost be seen as a miracle by 18th century standards.

It's a simple solution, create an amendment which creates 25 year term limits on the Federal Judiciary with full retirement benefits, 100% pay w/ health insurance, so that we don't lose our best justices to lame ass careers in ambulance chasing or M&A.

HunterTits says

this moron

@HunterTits Please refrain from personal attacks.

Hircus says

Anyway, I called the company and said 300k seemed too low. They said according to their records, that is the typical cost to do a total rebuild in my area. I couldnt believe it, because my neighbor just got a quote to add an extra room in back of his house and it was nearly 400k.

This seems to be a common problem in California. Building costs are enormous. With 100% open borders, sanctuary cities, and construction companies paying under the table, the labor costs should be pretty low. However, prices are sky-high due to state and local regulation.

During the once-in-a-century firestorms that we seem to get every other year, people in Napa found out the hard way that they had 1/2 the rebuild insurance needed. And then, since entire towns were wiped out, construction prices doubled above that. I believe that out-of-state construction crews were banned, of course, because they didn't have correct licensing to work in the state and the regulations and time required to get licensing were slow to come.

In all fairness, the derogatory word in question is referring to the author of the angybear article, so it is not a direct attack on a fellow PatNetter. I could be wrong, though.

OK thanks @HunterTits

My mistake.

HunterTits says

We should have a rule that ppl format their article content dumps into their posts.

It would be nice, but seems difficult to enforce. I don't think there's an automated way to know what is a user's comment vs what they are quoting.

Hopefully most people have learned by now from the opioid crisis not to pop pills for pain. If you want a healthy short term solution, cannabis, but please use a hemp wick instead of inhaling butane. Long term look into exercise, stretching, massage, and chiropractic. And remember, as with all health issues, there is no, I repeat NO quick solution.

richwicks says

For used cars, I don't think this works.

You make a good point here. How is it that these smart people make these kind of mistakes? Or was their plan to create Carvana and then hollow it out?

gabbar says

Or was their plan to create Carvana and then hollow it out?

Seems likely. Maybe a tax strategy. Or they had investments in other companies they contracted with. Likely just laundering money though as the concept is pure shit.

Flipping cars is lucrative if you're a mechanic. Building 5 story buildings with car elevators at $2-3M a site is retarded. At $2-5k profit on a used car, you're looking at 7-10 years to turn a profit at every location. Clearly this was a scam, but who knows whether it was legal or not.

When it comes to used cars I’ve always had one rule

Buy directly from seller and make sure there is no middle man.

Why would I consider anything else!?

Carvana actually has decent prices for their used cars (and they pay well too), but I've heard of nightmares during the process, enough to turn me away (things like they never properly registered the car, making getting the title impossible, etc).

BayArea says

When it comes to used cars I’ve always had one rule

Buy directly from seller and make sure there is no middle man.

Why would I consider anything else!?

Some people have decided they couldn't be bothered with the usual "hassle" of buying a used car, so they went for the "luxury experience" with Carvana.

I've bought a generator back in 2017 or so. Still sits unopened in the garage.

DooDahMan says

As the 1960s became the 70s, the theories of a Scottish psychiatrist R.D Laing and the models of Nash began to converge, producing a widespread popular belief that the state was purely and simply a mechanism of social control which calculatedly kept power out of the hands of the public.

This was known long before "Schizo comes from family relations"* RD Laing and Schnizo Nash.

* Mere years before DNA would find it's an inherited gene, had nothing to do with evil Bourgeois families with their work ethic and discipline, but genetics.

How did Transgender stop being a mental illness?

Activists protested, shrieked, and whinged. The Science never changed.