patrick.net

Jamie, just throw a bag of doritos at him as he's likely just put the bond down and will need them.

dang, not "bond", BONG!

Maybe Peter P is actually the Easter Bunny.

No, I am the were-rabbit.

"Jamie, just throw a bag of doritos at him"

I believe in Marin County, when they get the post-bong munchies, they eat all-natural gourmet baked garlic and parmesan soy chips.

American homeowners are going to be slapped with bigger monthly payments just when they’re already drowning in debt and lining up at the bankruptcy courts by the thousands.

Fuck em.

I have a question regarding “core inflation” what is in the “consumer basket”?

You can use FRED, at the St. Louis Fed Reserve to research this. It is complex, and the basket is huge.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/9

Something to remember about CPI, it is a fixed basket of goods, those only bought by consumers. It tends to overstate inflation, currently by about 1%. The GDP deflator is a variable index, which covers all goods purchased, and it tends to understate inflation. CPI and GDP deflator have been within 2% of one another except during the late 70s, when CPI was probably overstating inflation quite a bit. Fixed baskets overstate because (1) they don't account for consumer substitution, (2) they don't account for new goods introduced--like iPods, (3) they don't measure changes in quality--like price increases due to product upgrades such as in cars.

The Tax Panel is goint to make some recommendations...

http://tinyurl.com/9wlnc

I have a feeling that it may go through this time because many US voters can benefit from the changes.

For those who are considering a home purchase, please assume that no deduction is possible in your calculations.

The mere talk of these changes may cool/crash the California market, unless Bush shoots it down quick enough.

Indicators of market distress are still largely absent. Foreclosure rates are low, down payment sizes are stable and there have been no significant shifts in market mix, DataQuick reported.

DQ likes to copy and paste this.

And I like to copy and paste this,

Newly Abundant liquidity can readily disappear - Alan Greenspan

Soon enough...

Newly abundant liquity is largely absent. Buying interest is low, prices are unstable and there have been huge shifts in market psychology.

Newly abundant liquity is largely absent. Buying interest is low, prices are unstable and there have been huge shifts in market psychology.

Well that should be fine, everyone in the BA has a secure job at a start-up software company and earns 150K +, and the peons that lick their toliets have secure manufacturing day jobs, plus the robust economy will weather the storm.

ahahahahhahahahahahahhahahahahaha oh my god thats funny ahahahahahhaahahahahahahahhah

"and the peons that lick their toliets have secure manufacturing day jobs"

And all the crappy low-paying, no-benefits service sector jobs are actually filled by GRUD's (Google Robotic Underling Drones). They look remarkably like people, but they're not. This is Google's latest venture -- creating robots to replace humans in all the jobs that Bay Area residents are too educated to do.

Just checked Uhauls site,

4-5 bedroom truck from SF to Phoenix $2170

4-5 bedroom truck from Phoenix to SF $199

Now that's really really odd, especially given the high salaries and positive intangibles of the BA. Oh, now I get it, the BA companies are subsidizing the moves, and Phoenix isn't. That must be it.

"4-5 bedroom truck from SF to Phoenix $2170"

Uhaul knows that Bay Area residents will settle for nothing but the best (except in the case of housing, and choice of cities to flee to when they can no longer afford to live in the Golden Land), so these trucks departing SF are actually upscale luxury Uhauls with Mercedes engines, deluxe leather air-cooled seats (so the Arizona sun won't burn their precious asses), and built-in espresso machines.

Just checked Uhauls site,

Now that’s really really odd, especially given the high salaries and positive intangibles of the BA. Oh, now I get it, the BA companies are subsidizing the moves, and Phoenix isn’t. That must be it

The price difference is big, and probably reflects some of the net outflow of people from the BA. However, very different prices like this are common in logistical network optimization pricing functions. The fact that the BA is so much bigger, and has more absolute demand, would account for a need to discount trucks inbound into the BA. The same thing is true in rental cars, airline pricing and schedules, or any other system that needs to move around assets.

Uhaul knows that Bay Area residents will settle for nothing but the best (except in the case of housing, and choice of cities to flee to when they can no longer afford to live in the Golden Land), so these trucks departing SF are actually upscale luxury Uhauls with Mercedes engines, deluxe leather air-cooled seats (so the Arizona sun won’t burn their precious asses), and built-in espresso machines.

And gold-threaded tires for Bay Area's gold-paved roads.

H.Z.

I agree with your read on GDP deflator data. The problem with CPI is the inverse, however, vis-a-vis substitution effects. CPI tends to (sometimes dramatically) overstate inflation during certain supply shocks. This is some of the reasoning behind removing food and energy. Although energy demand is inelastic, a lot of substitution between energy types occurs fairly quickly in response to price changes. These numbers force up CPI but have less of a real impact on the aggregate national income.

Whether we like CPI or not (and I don't) is a bit moot because so many contracts and entitlements are tied to CPI; so it affects us nonetheless.

The fact that the BA is so much bigger, and has more absolute demand, would account for a need to discount trucks inbound into the BA.

Or--I bet there's so many trucks heading out of CA they need to pay overhead for shipping available ones in? Still, that price difference is outrageous!

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, now why would that be?

Not to be devil's advocate, but even if the emmigration rates were exactly identical, there would be more accumulation of trucks in smaller cities than larger ones, simply because of the math.

and has more absolute demand, would account for a need to discount trucks inbound into the BA

Huh? Kind of an inverse supply/demand theory?

Huh? Kind of an inverse supply/demand theory?

Logistical optimization of asset placement trumps supply-demand. You can't supply-the-demand if you don't have a truck there. So long as the revenue less cost of the discount is above marginal costs, you can discount to try to get something (0 is better then

Logistical optimization of asset placement

I wouldn't want to say that five times fast ;)

(0 is better than

[one more time] (0 is better than

{time to work anyway}

To be fair, Phoenix also gets a lot of immigration from other places. It would be more telling if we get the same data from other city-pairs like NY/SF and LA/SF.

Bay Area residents will settle for nothing but the best (except in the case of housing, and choice of cities to flee to when they can no longer afford to live in the Golden Land), so these trucks departing SF are actually upscale luxury Uhauls with Mercedes engines, deluxe leather air-cooled seats

There's a new business model realtors can move into...showrooms of moving vans, "staged" to suit individual tastes...modern, tradtional, or sporty--there's a van for every lifestyle. Rates begin at $5/mile, financing available.
"Flee the Bay Area in style: you're moving up--not moving out!â„¢"

NYC - BA, BA - NYC roughly the same cost

BA - DALLAS $3699
Dallas - BA $860

c'mon surfer-x. i know you've had linear algebra somewhere in your schoolin'. You know that mathematically these systems of equations often yield non-intuitive results.

Here's some local stats on population changes.
http://tinyurl.com/9vqgf

Judging by Surfer-X's findings, I'd guess the exodus has picked up recently.

these systems of equations often yield non-intuitive results

Randy for Fed Chief, Randy for Fed Chief! Let the nomination process begin!

Randy for Fed Chief, Randy for Fed Chief! Let the nomination process begin!

Ok, I deserved that.

So the problem with looking at u-haul data is this: trucks don't frickin only go back and forth between 2 cities! a truck can go from the BA, to Phoenix, to Dallas, to NYC, then to Buttcrack Indiania. There are so many variables that when they put this crap in their big, expensive computers, they get wierd "proper pricing" out the other end. The pricing may have everything to do with demand, or nothing to do with demand. Some cities are just natural nexus points, and lots of trucks move through them.

equity refugees from California

My new favorite saying.

Randy H. again Sir your knowledge of these types of matters is astounding!

Randy H. again Sir your knowledge of these types of matters is astounding!

Sir? Randy H, KBE?

allah,

my point is you cannot prove or disprove anything with rental quotes. the prices may be because of what you say, or may be because the city is accumulating trucks (or short of trucks) because it is just unlucky in the grand scheme of u-haul's system. demand is not the only thing driving prices of trucks; there is a logistical force at work too. when u-haul optimizes pricing, they can purposefully take negative revenues on some runs because it increases revenues by more than that in others.

Parsed the pop data and here's what is says:

47 cities together lost 1.8% of their pop

and

47 cities gained population, 2.1% rise.

Kind of a push in my book. So much for the "exploding" population element to BA RE prices.

Wayne, take if from me, tell them that it gets to -20 below in the winter, for 6 months, that the re-introduction of the grizzly bear and wolf packs and adversely effected prop. values, and that you just plain can't get good brie there.

Wayne, nooooooooooooooooooooo

"So the winters have lots of bright sunny days, but nights are pretty cold. I was able to run or hike very comfortably last winter,"

Hey, sounds just like the So Cal high desert...well, except here we have all the sex offenders, west coast rednecks, and other assorted derelicts.