patrick.net

So it is October. We are we seeing? What are we not seeing. What do they mean?

Huh?

Huh?

We are we seeing?

Unless I just have bear-tinted glasses*, I'm seeing this Oct:
1. Far more acceptance in the media that a "bubble" may exist.
2. The noise from NAR sounds more desperate
3. Realtors sound more desperate
4. More inventory, with marginal price reduction
5. Little concern from investors in "unbustable" markets
6. Despite the confidence of the NAHB, their stocks are taking a dump.
what else?

*I have no idea what that means.

I'm going with Peter P, first off the dude's got stones (no, jack not "those" stones") and second, it's not over till the fat lady sings. 13 more days

I think history will vindicate Peter P.

I think history will vindicate Peter P.

Hey, I thought we are all in together. :)

Was he right? Was he wrong? Or is it the same old story? It seems that either side could make a very strong case for itself right now.

For the record, what did he predict again?

I do see certain aspects of RE taking a beating already.

I'm going with Peter P too. And I'm not even going to hold him to the fabled 10-sigma event; I'll settle for a 4-6 sigma one, (even in a non-zero-sum enviro).

I'm too weak to make predictions of my own. I prefer to build derivative products on others' predictions.

Hey, I thought we are all in together.

I'm afraid you've become the designated spokesperson for the group.

Translation

You'll be sold out if it all goes wrong. (Just kidding....really)

I’m too weak to make predictions of my own. I prefer to build derivative products on others’ predictions.

You are not weak, just smart. :)

Let me further narrow down the date to this weekend: Friday or Monday.

*** NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE ***

I want to be watching CNBC when it happens, you sly Fannie put buying dawg

Funny thing is that FNM has been going UP past few days when the HBs were hammered. Interesting...

Now you are beginning to sound like Prat.

Maybe I am prat. ;)

Nah, my golf game is not half as good as his.

Yes, I’ve noticed. Probably just a dead cat bounce, but who knows? My IMH short had a bounce, but fell pretty hard today. Still haven’t shorted any builders, as the downtrend has been too relentless for a bounce.

The "bounce" has been pretty steady over the past few days on bad news though.

Not too much volume, though. If I was smart enough to have shorted it, I would still be holding on - until a big volume washout in the general market anyway.

I am planning to add more puts. I believe this pullback will end soon and the secular downtrend will resume.

*** NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE ***

Wayne, if the market falls hard on Friday, do you think we should expect a pullback on Sunday night (Globex S&P)? Or do you think it will fall off the bottom?

off-topic:

is the RSS feed for this site working? I'm getting terrible results in both Feedreader and Googlereader.

Thanks Wayne.

I am considering a bunch of October puts that expire this Saturday. In case they swing in-the-money, I am not sure if it is better to execise them into short positions or simply roll them into November options.

is the RSS feed for this site working? I’m getting terrible results in both Feedreader and Googlereader.

Randy, maybe Feedreader and Googlereader are going "huh?".

A bewitching hour or day? a black Friday and a dark Monday to follow?

It is not a "Triple Witching Friday" though.

I do recall October 1987 was rather bad, but wasn’t that pre–we-can-stop-it when-we want-to-trading. Didn’t it drop 500 points that day?

I think the market has a 5%/10%/15% circuit breaker, right?

"Huh"

Jack, you must like this word because of its symmetry, its minimalism, its palindrome-ness, its multiple layers of meaning depending on the way it is used and how it is spoken. As a word, it's like a post-modern work of art.

"I just have bear-tinted glasses"

LOL!

"Hey, I thought we are all in together."

I will stand before the firing squad with you, Peter. I am quite sure we'll be vindicated...in fact, I would bet there will be no firing squad, because the bulls will be too busy pawning their guns so they can rent those luxury Uhauls straight out of Cali.

You are playing with fire when you bet on Fannie Mae.

It bounced back as I guessed it would. However, I was unwilling to bet on that, because there is far too much that cannot be known by us. And far too much that is known by some. You are taking a huge risk making any bet with such a big information disadvantage.

BTW, Dead cats don't bounce this well.

You are playing with fire when you bet on Fannie Mae.

It bounced back as I guessed it would. However, I was unwilling to bet on that, because there is far too much that cannot be known by us. And far too much that is known by some. You are taking a huge risk making any bet with such a big information disadvantage.

I know. This is why I will strictly control my risks using limited-loss strategies. Fire? Yes, I will probably burn my fish too. ;)

BTW, Dead cats don’t bounce this well.

I agree. It is quite probable that the market is seeing bad news as evidence of corruption cleansing.

FNM has bounced twice now. It's been about 20 days since the big drop... with a steady and stable climb from the second bottom.

FNM has bounced twice now. It’s been about 20 days since the big drop… with a steady and stable climb from the second bottom.

Yes indeed. More importantly, it has been going up against the broad market. This does indicate some strength...

Better to burn your fish, rather than your cash. Good luck.

I think the market has a 5%/10%/15% circuit breaker, right?

Circuit breakers and trading collars:

If ( dow.level()

well shit, and I put so much work into the code. oh well, figures.

Go here to see trading curb rules:
http://www.nyse.com/Frameset.html?displayPage=/press/circuit_breakers.html

Re: “Huh?”

Jack, I wonder how long we can keep discussing the word "huh?" Imagine it--us staying on topic...completely on topic!

Here's a comprehensive breakdown of the uses of the word "huh" from urbandictionary.com:
http://tinyurl.com/bc3cr

(PS I had nothing to do with the lewdness of the first example)

Hmmm...will there be an oktoberfukt?
Heads "no", tails "yes". I flipped a nick & it came up Monticello.
(***not investment advice***)

A fund manager, John Hussman (pronounced "Huh-ssman", by the way :) ) has some commentary regarding current market environment. The "4%" comment near the bottom is particularly interesting:

"As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks continued to be characterized by unusually unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action. Note that this is a discrete change from recent weeks. Until and unless market action improves enough, we have to infer that investors have moved to a more skittish view of risk. At present, we have very low risk premiums, increasing risk aversion, and rising interest rates. This is a really bad combination. That's not to forecast a crash (though current conditions match only the 4% of market history that contains most significant crashes on record) or even the necessity of a market decline here. But very emphatically, this is not an environment in which we are willing to take a significant exposure to market risk."

Link:
http://tinyurl.com/8d8bp

Damn Jack, got no nickels? Living off the HELOC, HUH?
:)

:) = :) ?

"Is that is why Peter P made this thread. To “park” all the misfits in?"

Maybe it's a social experiment, to see just how far wrong we can go with a topic so vague...

"http://tinyurl.com/8d8bp"

Huh. (couldn't resist) Interesting article, SJ Jim, thanks for posting. I think we should have a thread titled "Octoberfukt."

...only if "it" happens, I say. Until then, "huh" will due for now, to be followed by "hmmm" around this time next week.