patrick.net

So it is October. We are we seeing? What are we not seeing. What do they mean?

Huh?

Huh?

We are we seeing?

Unless I just have bear-tinted glasses*, I'm seeing this Oct:
1. Far more acceptance in the media that a "bubble" may exist.
2. The noise from NAR sounds more desperate
3. Realtors sound more desperate
4. More inventory, with marginal price reduction
5. Little concern from investors in "unbustable" markets
6. Despite the confidence of the NAHB, their stocks are taking a dump.
what else?

*I have no idea what that means.

I'm going with Peter P, first off the dude's got stones (no, jack not "those" stones") and second, it's not over till the fat lady sings. 13 more days

I think history will vindicate Peter P.

I think history will vindicate Peter P.

Hey, I thought we are all in together. :)

Was he right? Was he wrong? Or is it the same old story? It seems that either side could make a very strong case for itself right now.

For the record, what did he predict again?

I do see certain aspects of RE taking a beating already.

I'm going with Peter P too. And I'm not even going to hold him to the fabled 10-sigma event; I'll settle for a 4-6 sigma one, (even in a non-zero-sum enviro).

I'm too weak to make predictions of my own. I prefer to build derivative products on others' predictions.

Hey, I thought we are all in together.

I'm afraid you've become the designated spokesperson for the group.

Translation

You'll be sold out if it all goes wrong. (Just kidding....really)

I’m too weak to make predictions of my own. I prefer to build derivative products on others’ predictions.

You are not weak, just smart. :)

Let me further narrow down the date to this weekend: Friday or Monday.

*** NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE ***

I want to be watching CNBC when it happens, you sly Fannie put buying dawg

Funny thing is that FNM has been going UP past few days when the HBs were hammered. Interesting...

Now you are beginning to sound like Prat.

Maybe I am prat. ;)

Nah, my golf game is not half as good as his.

Yes, I’ve noticed. Probably just a dead cat bounce, but who knows? My IMH short had a bounce, but fell pretty hard today. Still haven’t shorted any builders, as the downtrend has been too relentless for a bounce.

The "bounce" has been pretty steady over the past few days on bad news though.

Not too much volume, though. If I was smart enough to have shorted it, I would still be holding on - until a big volume washout in the general market anyway.

I am planning to add more puts. I believe this pullback will end soon and the secular downtrend will resume.

*** NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE ***

Wayne, if the market falls hard on Friday, do you think we should expect a pullback on Sunday night (Globex S&P)? Or do you think it will fall off the bottom?

off-topic:

is the RSS feed for this site working? I'm getting terrible results in both Feedreader and Googlereader.

Thanks Wayne.

I am considering a bunch of October puts that expire this Saturday. In case they swing in-the-money, I am not sure if it is better to execise them into short positions or simply roll them into November options.

is the RSS feed for this site working? I’m getting terrible results in both Feedreader and Googlereader.

Randy, maybe Feedreader and Googlereader are going "huh?".

A bewitching hour or day? a black Friday and a dark Monday to follow?

It is not a "Triple Witching Friday" though.

I do recall October 1987 was rather bad, but wasn’t that pre–we-can-stop-it when-we want-to-trading. Didn’t it drop 500 points that day?

I think the market has a 5%/10%/15% circuit breaker, right?