patrick.net

tatupu70 says

Wait a second. You heard something from a guy down the street?? I stand corrected. All the supporting data is meaningless--you have certainly found the answer.

Just a quick question though--interest rates are very near historic lows. House prices continue to fall. Shouldn't they be rising?

...and how are you? Beggin yer pardon, but were we discussing something? I should think for me to have attempted to correct you on a topic of discussion would, at the very least, assume that we were engaged at some point in a discussion -- no?

Anyway...yes -- I think it could be argued that forsaking empiricism for chart porn is a somewhat facile method of interpreting the goings on around you. The inverse is also true. Yes, 'some guy on the street' -- some carbon-based bipedal life mass full of glands firing all kinds of chemicals fixating over interest rates during the run-up in housing is a point of reference for me, because it represents a snapshot of what the consumer psychology was during that time. Regardless of how unscientific such a metric may strike you, I find that real experience adds a touch of dimensionality when trying to ascertain a picture of the world around me. I know, I know, LOL, right? Unfortunately, I've not yet developed the ability to fit myself entirely under a rock in order to tune out information that does not jibe with official data dredged up on the Googles, nor fits neatly into a pie chart or a whiteboard or a spreadsheet -- sorry. I know I'll get there one day, and you can bake me a cake when I do.

RE interest rates and prices: according to the wisdom of the average contrarian like yourself, the bottom was in in 2009; prices are not falling, they are flat. However, if we are to assume for the sake of argument that prices are falling, I would suggest that there are several price supports that are working in unison with low rates to buffer and even temporarily suspend the rate at which prices continue to correct and likely over-correct to the downside. Whether that is a good or a bad thing is a subject for another discussion.

Bellingham Bill says

The problem with housing wasn't some exogenous forces with the Fed, it was the industry itself running amok.
Again, we have an ideology problem here.
Private industry fucked up, and that's simply anathema to ideologues.
It's gotta be the Fed, or gummint, or something other than the Holy Free Market.

Oh I am an idealouge. These hard core corporations blow kind philosophical feathers out of their ass in their daily doings in television and the other things they own. They are realists the owners of the work a world are. They haven't got time for nice bullshit. Unless its them blowing smoke up our ass. Its a simple math. They started with paper got labor and assets.

Guess what Bill I'm a hard ass to. I'm out to take their assets away from them. After all they have a lot of unoccupied vacant shit sitting around. I could just might.. get together with some local developers not doing anything. Instead of occupying some street corner. Go downtown talk to the right people and get some codes written. See how that works Bill? Mr. Opportunity has been saying to me this just might be the time to get very rich.

Difference between me and most. I'm not fooled, paper is asswipe. It's the assets that make you rich and they are out there now in a big way. PAPER DETACHES YOU FROM ASSETS. See I can go to the grocery store with a fucking cow asking to trade it for a box of hamburger helper. They won't do it. See my asset has no value theirs does. They have very successfully established the means of trade. They have warehouses full of paper they can print more freely and take anything and everything they want. They take labor and material. With credit and paper. Thats the game.

The Main problem is no one really bought anything but many think they did. ( they borrowed btw)
Most of you folks don't understand what "buy" means when it comes to housing
Had these folk actually Bought (paid for with cash) we wouldn't be hear.

Debt slaves think they actually own something.

And BTW your kids think you REALLY own your house too.

Teach the children well (to be debt slaves)

Austinhousingbubble says

I should think for me to have attempted to correct you on a topic of discussion would, at the very least, assume that we were engaged at some point in a discussion -- no?

Sorry, didn't know an invitation was needed prior to entering a discussion on the pat.net boards. My apologies.

Austinhousingbubble says

RE interest rates and prices: according to the wisdom of the average contrarian like yourself, the bottom was in in 2009; prices are not falling, they are flat. However, if we are to assume for the sake of argument that prices are falling, I would suggest that there are several price supports that are working in unison with low rates to buffer and even temporarily suspend the rate at which prices continue to correct and likely over-correct to the downside.

That's not an unreasonable position. But, it is at odds with the previous statements that interest rates were the cause of the bubble. If interest rates cause bubbles, then we should be in another bubble. They are lower than in 2005-2008. Obviously it's not that simple. Interest rates may have had a small effect by initiating a rational housing boom which affected people's psychology. B. Bill is right though, loose lending is the real cause.