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U.S. Housing Starts Jump 9.3% - Why is this good news?


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2011 Dec 20, 4:01pm   5,500 views  5 comments

by tdeloco   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

The rise in stocks today (Dec 20) were attributed to this news:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-20/housing-starts-in-u-s-increase-to-highest-level-in-year-in-stability-sign.html

However, I think this is counter-intuitive. We all know supply and demand from basic economics. This increases supply, not demand. So why is this good news? Doesn't it add downward pressure to house prices.

#housing

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1   EightBall   2011 Dec 20, 10:46pm  

tdeloco says

However, I think this is counter-intuitive. We all know supply and demand from basic economics. This increases supply, not demand. So why is this good news? Doesn't it add downward pressure to house prices.

Perhaps the market thinks that an increase in starts means an increase in demand? Perhaps the price of new construction has found parity with resale homes?

It has always been my view that housing can't drop below the cost of construction persistently. Eventually inventory will need to be increased to meet increasing household formation or "migration". Have we hit that point? In some places yes, in other places...maybe not for a long time. As long as the population keeps increasing we will need to keep building. There are a lot of factors involved (move-in-with-the-parents crowd, cracker box rentals, etc) but eventually demand will outpace or catch up with supply. When will this happen as well as where is the million dollar question.

2   FortWayne   2011 Dec 21, 6:16am  

They usually build when demand arises. So most likely demand is there.

I wouldn't attribute that to stock market going up. It's been volatile with swings because of all the automatic buy/sell computerized trades. I don't think it has to do with the news of someone building more apartment buildings.

3   everything   2011 Dec 21, 11:22am  

It's news because someone is spending money. When the banks won't lend to you then rent instead, rental vacancies are down, gotta fill that void, investors aplenty I'm sure.

4   futuresmc   2011 Dec 21, 12:40pm  

It could also be a function of location. Think of North Dakota and the oil shale. The housing up there, even the spots in the mobile home park, are thousands each month. New housing in heavy demand, low unemployment areas is a good thing.

5   tdeloco   2011 Dec 21, 12:56pm  

The demand for rental is obviously up, but the article mentions both Apartments and Townhomes. With the NAR revising down home sales data, the housing market is actually worse than previously thought. Furthermore, some of these townhomes might end up as high end apartments.

If the builders continue to speculate and end up overbuilding, prices will stay low. That's bad for people who currently own property.

FortWayne says

I wouldn't attribute that to stock market going up

They're linked from stock quotes. Then again, these things are probably automated. Either that or some idiot reporters are trying to connect unrelated events.

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