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Shadow inventory could be more than 10x times bigger than initially estimated


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2012 Jan 5, 10:17am   49,705 views  96 comments

by dunnross   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

"On Wednesday, Dec. 21st, 2011, HousingWire reports that CoreLogic projected shadow inventory to be 1.6 million homes throughout the entire United States. If Stern relayed the information correctly, and Fannie relayed it to him correctly, that figure looks more like it could be the shadow inventory of South Florida alone. "

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/michael-olenick-is-shadow-housing-inventory-vastly-larger-than-widely-believed.html?source=patrick.net#post-23586

#housing

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93   CBETA   2012 Jan 22, 5:18pm  

The reason they may not have had that money during the bubble. For example, could be, that they just entered the workforce and had no significant savings yet.
Also 5% from 600K is 30K, where is in the same area houses are now closer(Grimmer) to 400K and 20% is 80K. In 5 years, those with a degree and a goal are capable of saving $80K... I personally know a few.
Hence it is not just math. It is time that worked for them and goal that they worked on.

One example; http://www.redfin.com/CA/Fremont/4726-Victoria-Ave-94538/home/1110471
Note not every house in this neighborhood is like that, varies street by street.

Is everyone was able to achieve same - of course not.
Reminds me of this
Колхозное собрание. Отчитывается главный зоотехник: (All hands at a Farm. Key technician is providing status)
– ...в среднем от каждой коровы мы надоили 7 тонн молока. (.. on average from each cow we got 7 tonn of milk)
Встает из зала бабка, спрашивает: (An older woman gets up and asks:)
– Милок, что такое в среднем? (Dear, what is 'on average'?)
– Ивановна, взять к примеру корову Зорьку, она дает 3 тонны, а Звездочка – 13, а в среднем они дают 8. Понятно? (Well, if you for example take cow 1, she gives 3 tonns, whereas cow 2 - 13, but on average they give 8. Understand?)
– Люди, так шо эта деется... Если секретарша председателя Ленка даёт ему и главному инженеру, а доярка Машка – каждому механизатору, то в среднем по колхозу и я блядь получаюсь?! (People, what is this... If director's secretary Lenka f* him and principle engineer, milkmaid Mashka f* each mechanic, then on average for our farm, I am a whore????)

94   dunnross   2012 Jan 23, 2:11pm  

CBETA says

they just entered the workforce and had no significant savings yet

Hi SBETA,

With the "real" unemployment or underemployment rate above 20%, and prices of everything (except housing) going up every year, unfortunately reality is not on the side of those who are trying to save money for a down payment. Yes, there will be exceptions (outliers), but those outliers will not prevent prices to continue falling to their "fair value", and, even lower, because, when we are talking about real estate prices or trends, we are talking about the law of large numbers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

And, also, your joke is funny, but it's not true. Even though your babushka may say that she is not a whore, odds are greatly against her, so, most likely, she probably is.

95   dunnross   2012 Jan 23, 3:16pm  

Nomograph says

Foreclosures are a matter of public record. There is no secret shadow inventory.

Shadow inventory is not just the foreclosure inventory. It also includes delinquent loans. Foreclosures represent less than 1/3 of the total shadow inventory, akin to the top of an iceberg, where the bulk of it is "under water" - pun intended.

96   Ozxvdrcxq   2012 Jun 4, 7:24pm  

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