patrick.net

LASVEGASWINNER says

"Maybe I'm asking too much and being unrealistic. I wish interest rates would go up so prices would be forced to come down further"

When interest start rising this time, you will be left at the gate looking for that "dream house" The market is in "recovery" per the time magazine report. Home Depot stock soaring, New Home Starts at a 2 year high, employment up, unemployment down, rents rising.

The spring buying season around Mar 15 to May 30, will be the best in years, and your selection of houses in your price range will get smaller and smaller.

PROFEESIONAL BUYERS AGENT - INVESTOR - SALES ASSOCIATE - PROPERTY MANAGER 35 years experience

I think this exact same thing was said to me in 2005 and again in 2007. I didn't listen then (thank god) and until this puppy finishes the downward course I won't be listening now. Same trick different realtor.

tatupu70 says

nw888 says

Historically housing does not go up with inflation.

Huh? Historically, housing prices absolutely have gone up with inflation.

You can argue that they won't in the future, but you can't argue that they haven't historically.

People on this forum with attempt to argue the dots off a dalmatian if you excite them. This is the court of no accountability. People talk like they know it all, like they have lived it all, and everyone around should stop and listen to them and only them. There have only been a few bits of knowledge exchanged and I think we all get a little dumbed down just by being here.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I think this exact same thing was said to me in 2005 and again in 2007.

And the same thing was said to you 1999...and they were right. So what?

If you say the same thing long enough you will be right eventually.

Rents in Danville/San Ramon are really high! Between $3000 - $4000 for 2000 sq. ft. I can buy a house for these rent prices! CRAZY! RENTS aren't cheaper there and this is where I want to live...

SubOink says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I think this exact same thing was said to me in 2005 and again in 2007.

And the same thing was said to you 1999...and they were right. So what?

If you say the same thing long enough you will be right eventually.

Actually, realtors got much much pushier in 2007. Can't blame them when their commission pay doubled for the same amount of work. Add to that the fall off in sales in 2008 and 2009 when we had too many realtors competing for too little buyers, and things got really silly.

I had a much better view of realtors in 1999. Now they just suck, cause they are leading more and more people into financial prison. You guys are suppose to study this market. You either don't study it well enough, or you purposely are misleading people at this time. In 2 years from now will probably be a good time to buy, but right now is NOT.

Down we go. I'll be enjoying the ride. It is actually like I already own a home that is appreciating. Add to it, I can call my landlord and get shit fixed at anytime without worrying about the cost. Deal!

sheltielover1 says

Rents in Danville/San Ramon are really high! Between $3000 - $4000 for 2000 sq. ft. I can buy a house for these rent prices! CRAZY! RENTS aren't cheaper there and this is where I want to live...

Show me the numbers where you can buy a reasonable house in Danville/San Ramon and be paying less than 3-4K/mth. I've seen some pretty executive style housing (4bd/3ba) in San Ramon in that range. You don't get them for an ownership cost less than 6K/mth, 2K is a lot of savings per month. No?

A quick search of San Ramon today turned up a few houses that are much much cheaper to rent than buy.

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/2828366285.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/2862360150.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/2844094608.html

That took all of about 10 seconds.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Even you know that 1000sqft is a big difference.

I got a 1000 square foot space or thereabouts just for my trophies.

That Agassi sale was 6 years ago and the Spielberg 2 years ago.

For a claimed controller of a SEC registrant, your logic is shocking. I'm horrified actually or just can't comprehend what is being asked and addressed, in this case Patrick's rent/buy calculator.

The CFO of a 70 year old company asks:, "Controller, give me a 7 year projection of SG&A expense for the company". Controller gives the projection based on the 10 years where the company "rightsize" down and ignore the other 60 years where the company's SG&A went from 20M overall to 200M overall.

Boss, SG&A in 2020 will be 185M. Be prepared to explain yourself and pray for the best. (Controller's language based on past interaction, As we have seen in the early 1990's, prices does go down and we were succussful in reducing our SG&A at select periods in the company's history, therefore that is my basis of the forecast)

That's the calculator in a nutshell.

robertoaribas says

Mortgages have built in expenses

Who cares about those expenses when they all are going to be dumped on taxpayers - stupid lawmakers. :(

robertoaribas says

maybe, but there is a bottom limit to rates.

I think we make the mistake sometimes ( I know I do) of thinking about the absolute rate. Say 3% and considering that it doesn't have much room to go down. However, in reality we can go down 10% of that rate pretty easily - to 2.9%. Like a bond that 10% drop is huge when you crunch the numbers. We could drop the relative 10% for the next foreseeable future. The limit, is by putting the 10yr bond at 0%, but we have a ways to go before we are even close. The 10yr bond could drop 10% relative for my lifetime and still not be at 0%. In short, the lower the rate, the smaller the absolute drop required to give a relative 10% drop. We really only care about the relative.

AlexG says

I hope more of fellow Americans will see house for what it is - a place to enjoy and raise your kids

Yeah, but my kids will be grown with all this waiting

1sfrenter says

Yeah, but my kids will be grown with all this waiting

So what are you waiting for? Vote of approval from pat.net? Buy the one that costs the same as renting and move on.