patrick.net

Philistine says

LA is Mid-City/Wilshire, Westwood, Hancock Park, Beverly Hills, Culver City, West Hollywood, Hollywood, and maybe a couple surrounding neighborhoods. Santa Monica probably. These areas are the heart of actual LA, where a majority of the jobs, culture, decent food, etc. are

That's nonsense. Those areas you described are exactly where you do NOT want to live.

Decent food? LOL. We have some of the best restaurants here in Calabasas, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Malibu. From Indian to Thai to BBQ. And no issues to park - room to breathe.

Some people like to live in area's that are actually nice. Where you can hike out your backyard and live close to the ocean. To get to the ocean from any of the area's above its a haul, you end up never going. When is the last time you went for a walk?

Well, I say that...because I am blessed and work from home so I don't have to live in car smog. I barely drive.

Still, I know many people that commute right into Hollywood. And they all say that its worth driving home to a nice area.

Just my 2 cents...

PS: Hollywood?? Now, there is a $hithole...

Completely concur. Hollywood is a total POS. And it emblematizies exactly why LA sucks. I guess we just think places like Calabasas, etc. are bland, quasi-suburban, everyplaces.

But there is always a Chili's/Target/Home Depot shopping plaza waiting for you around every corner. Always feels like home, no matter which one of those paint-by-number zipcodes you live in.

The reason we really like the Pasadena area is that it has a good amount of architectural buildings, is more or less centrally located, nice tree lined streets, and has good schools.

I love the idea of living out in the Malibu, which has a rural feel to it, but the commute would get old.

Hancock Park is great too, but is still insanely overpriced.

No matter the price or the area, the real point is that I refuse to pay the same or more than what the seller bought it for in 2006.

nw888 says

We're looking for a $1.4-2.2M house in the Los Angeles area

Philistine says

Playa Vista, Venice, Redondo Beach??, Hermosa??, Manhattan Beach--all of these places you have listed are *not* LA. They are outlying areas that *might* appeal to some people, but Manhattan Beach and Redondo are like literally an hour to get most places actually in LA.

The OP said LA area, not LA proper.

Philistine says

LA is Mid-City/Wilshire, Westwood, Hancock Park, Beverly Hills, Culver City, West Hollywood, Hollywood, and maybe a couple surrounding neighborhoods. Santa Monica probably.

OK, how about this in Hancock Park?:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/631-N-Mccadden-Pl-90004/home/7101139

Philistine says

These areas are the heart of actual LA, where a majority of the jobs, culture, decent food, etc. are

You forgot to mention crappy schools, bad air, surface street congestion, high crime rates, and plastic people.

Philistine says

Because I live and work in these neighborhoods, my "commute" is literally 12 minutes and the gas money saved not idling stupidly and time I save are extremely value-added to my quality of life.

My commute is 30 secs. I work from home. The OP never mentioned anything about his/her commute. Maybe they can clarify where they work, if they do.

Waitingtobuy says

My commute is 30 secs. I work from home. The OP never mentioned anything about his/her commute. Maybe they can clarify where they work, if they do.

I work from home mostly, but sometimes have to commute to the movie studios, which are mainly in Burbank or Culver City. My wife can work anywhere there is a hospital. I'd like to stay close to studios, but it's not detrimental. And the only reason we don't leave Southern California is because we have a lot of family here, and that is very important to us.

I am in the Internet business, work from home, and also have to go to the studios. I arrange my client visits after 1030. Last week, it took me 30 mins from the South Bay to get to the Paramount lot. Burbank would take 45 mins-1 hr on a good day...but it depends what your definition of sometimes is..if once a month, doable. If once/week, not.

JodyChunder says

nw888 says

Typically, people in that situation have millions to spend because they worry MORE about bubbles, where there money is going, and how their assets are doing. Not worrying about things like this is one of the reasons most people never find themselves in that situation.

Word.

But the bubble is over dudes. There is calculating risk and there is analysis paralysis. The point is this jockeys already willing to sink 2 mill for a dwelling. That right there puts you in loco territory. It's like saying you are worried that paying forty dollars for a gallon of milk instead of 34 dollars for the same gallon when you know its insane either or. I don't want to overpay too much, but I am still willing to overpay by a lot.

That's a very different statement from what you said before. Not worrying about a bubble because you have millions and not worrying about a bubble because it's over are very different standpoints. The first is ridiculous, and a sure fire way for someone with millions to soon become someone 'without' millions. The second is debatable. Is the hysteria that drove prices up rapidly over? Probably. Are some areas still overpriced and some sellers delusional? Also probably true. And if the hysteria is over than that's all the more reason to avoid buying in those areas.

When I'm on a project with a studio I will then have to be there 5 days a week, so commute is important to me. More and more I want to just work from home and not deal with this rat race anymore.

I just want a nice house, with a good size yard, a pool, a 15 minute commute, and under $400 a square foot. That price to me is still insane! I remember when the average price in Beverly Hills was $250 per square foot in 1999, and now it's something like $600+ still? South Pasadena with a good piece of land-1/4 to 1/2 acre is $6-800+ per square foot. It's out of control. I refuse to pay these inflated asking prices.

Maybe I'm asking too much and being unrealistic. I wish interest rates would go up so prices would be forced to come down further, but that won't be happening until at LEAST 2014 according to the fed. Maybe a crisis will force the issue....

"Maybe I'm asking too much and being unrealistic. I wish interest rates would go up so prices would be forced to come down further"

When interest start rising this time, you will be left at the gate looking for that "dream house" The market is in "recovery" per the time magazine report. Home Depot stock soaring, New Home Starts at a 2 year high, employment up, unemployment down, rents rising.
The spring buying season around Mar 15 to May 30, will be the best in years, and your selection of houses in your price range will get smaller and smaller.

Thank you for your reply. I 100% disagree with you.

nw888 says

When I'm on a project with a studio I will then have to be there 5 days a week, so commute is important to me. More and more I want to just work from home and not deal with this rat race anymore.

nw888 says

I work from home mostly, but sometimes have to commute to the movie studios, which are mainly in Burbank or Culver City.

nw888 says

I just want a nice house, with a good size yard, a pool, a 15 minute commute, and under $400 a square foot.

If you have to be in either Burbank or Culver City, where are you going to find a place in LA that is 15 mins from either Burbank or Culver City, unless you own a helicopter? Aren't you confined to a place like Hancock Park, and even then, on a good day, you are looking at 25-30 mins to either?

Waitingtobuy says

nw888 says

When I'm on a project with a studio I will then have to be there 5 days a week, so commute is important to me. More and more I want to just work from home and not deal with this rat race anymore.

nw888 says

I work from home mostly, but sometimes have to commute to the movie studios, which are mainly in Burbank or Culver City.

nw888 says

I just want a nice house, with a good size yard, a pool, a 15 minute commute, and under $400 a square foot.

If you have to be in either Burbank or Culver City, where are you going to find a place in LA that is 15 mins from either Burbank or Culver City, unless you own a helicopter? Aren't you confined to a place like Hancock Park, and even then, on a good day, you are looking at 25-30 mins to either?

nw888 says

Maybe I'm asking too much and being unrealistic. I wish interest rates would go up so prices would be forced to come down further, but that won't be happening until at LEAST 2014 according to the fed. Maybe a crisis will force the issue....

I used to think this way too. The thing is that the Fed will keep rates low until inflation picks up in order to stimulate economic growth. If inflation picks up, housing prices will go up with the price of everything else. There isn't necessarily an inverse correlation to all of this.

Yes, the 15 minutes comment was just an ideal. I know that the reality is that it does take a long time to get anywhere in this city. I think I'm unrealistic about finding the "perfect" spot. Hancock park actually is pretty perfect though. Very pricey for what you get.

Hmmm...maybe I can find a good price on a helicopter.... ;)

The issue for me with Hancock Park is schools. Elementary may be fine, but once the kids get to middle school, you may need private schooling. With two kids, that is grades 6-12 (7 years) * 2 kids * $18,000+/yr= an extra $250,000. In today's dollars.

I would look at Culver City which has a good school system, and grit it out for your commute to Burbank.

Waitingtobuy says

I used to think this way too. The thing is that the Fed will keep rates low until inflation picks up in order to stimulate economic growth. If inflation picks up, housing prices will go up with the price of everything else.

What changed your view?

My view is this:

Historically housing does not go up with inflation. No one needs to purchase a home. They can rent instead. Real wages don't go up, therefore rents won't go up. Things people must have go up. Food and fuel.

The only way to curb inflation is by raising interest rates. Raising interest rates makes mortgage payments higher. The only thing that can give will be house prices.

nw888 says

Historically housing does not go up with inflation.

Huh? Historically, housing prices absolutely have gone up with inflation.

You can argue that they won't in the future, but you can't argue that they haven't historically.

Waitingtobuy says

The issue for me with Hancock Park is schools. Elementary may be fine, but once the kids get to middle school, you may need private schooling. With two kids, that is grades 6-12 (7 years) * 2 kids * $18,000+/yr= an extra $250,000. In today's dollars.

I would look at Culver City which has a good school system, and grit it out for your commute to Burbank.

Yeah I've looked at that too. It's outrageous for those private schools. Even though it's minor, the streets suck in that area too. They're basic LA streets with cracks and potholes. It's still LA, with LA police response time. A private city has nice roads and quick police response.

tatupu70 says

nw888 says

Historically housing does not go up with inflation.

Huh? Historically, they absolutely have.

You can argue that they won't in the future, but you can't argue that they haven't historically.

Let me rephrase that. I'm talking about rapid inflation problems, not inflation over the course of decades. I've never seen a situation in any country with out of control inflation where housing has suddenly spiked.

nw888 says

The only way to curb inflation is by raising interest rates. Raising interest rates makes mortgage payments higher. The only thing that can give will be house prices.

There are two ways to slow inflation: raise interest rates and slow the growth of the money supply.

nw888 says

Historically housing does not go up with inflation. No one needs to purchase a home. They can rent instead. Real wages don't go up, therefore rents won't go up. Things people must have go up. Food and fuel.

The price of building materials is impacted by the price of oil. PVC, for example, is made out of petroleum resins. The cost to transport materials to a building site are also impacted by inflation. So are construction wages. And it's not just for new homes either.

nw888 says

I'm talking about rapid inflation problems, not inflation over the course of decades. I've never seen a situation in any country with out of control inflation where housing has suddenly spiked.

This country has not, and may never, have the inflation problems of a Weimar Republic Germany, Brazil in the 1980s and 1990s, or current Zimbabwe. We own the printing presses for the world's reserve currency (or at least for the next 20 yrs, it is), so we can slow down the presses and raise interest rates.

nw888 says

Yeah I've looked at that too. It's outrageous for those private schools. Even though it's minor, the streets suck in that area too. They're basic LA streets with cracks and potholes. It's still LA, with LA police response time. A private city has nice roads and quick police response.

Which is why I suggested Culver City. Good private city with nice roads, quick police response, and good schools.

Philistine says

I guess we just think places like Calabasas, etc. are bland, quasi-suburban, everyplaces.

I guess if you consider nature, the mountains, views and space bland then yes, you are right. Very bland. You sound like a NYker. :)

Some people enjoy having an ugly skyscraper peeking into your backyard and having telephone poles and electric lines across your pool.

Do yourself a favor, drive out to Malibu...then take encinal canyon up the hill from the PCH, the go to Decker Canyon...take Decker Canyon to Westlake Village, drive around there then get on the 101...exit Kanan RD. Head North into Agoura Hills...

If you don't think its just drop dead gorgeous then I don't know what is. It's very clean around here, roads are kept up and brand new, yet the neighborhoods are old enough to have a lot of old old landscaping, trees etc.
Also, drive on Mullholland. Some awesome houses there.

If you want to be close to shopping, then Agoura and Westlake Village are a bit better as you have Whole Foods, Gelsons, Ralphs, Vons, Trader Joes, right around the corner including thousands of little boutique shops. A million restaurants in all styles of food and tons of parking.

Another thing is weather - if you don't like 110 degrees SF Valley BS then you should come to the conejo valley, ocean breeze - we don't use A/C other than 10-15 times a year. Amazing! It gets 85-100 to in the summer but only peak hours and come 4pm that ocean breeze cools everything off so fast, just open windows and it cools off. That's the only aspect I don't like about Malibu - its a little chilly there, even in the summer. Barely an 80 degree day and lots of 100% overcast marine layer days. All of June, most of July and still a lot during the whole year.

But whatever floats your boat. If you want to be in a city, LA is not really the place to be - move to Boston, you can walk around. NY...etc..

LASVEGASWINNER says

pring buying season around Mar 15 to May 30, will be the best in years, and your selection of houses in your price range will get smaller and smaller.

PROFEESIONAL BUYERS AGENT - INVESTOR - SALES ASSOCIATE - PROPERTY MANAGER 35 years experience

Vegas is over. Kaput. Kablooey. Victorville is where it's at, Winner.

SubOink says

Small? How big of a house do you need??

A man likes room to stretch out some. We're different on this is all.

Waitingtobuy says

I just picked out 6 random houses from RB to Venice whether they were pending or not to illustrate the point. Obviously, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of houses in LA that will satisfy the OPs requirements. As for style, that is in the eye of the beholder. And qualitywise, hard to tell from the pics, but if you really want quality, you are looking in the wrong state. Very few stone or brick construction homes in California because of earthquake codes.

I dont consider 3848 sq ft (Playa Vi

Another way to look at it is if you've got that kind of money to play with, you have more latitude for error than a guy who's a work-a-day stiff or a freshly minted grad student with a bun in the oven. The loss is more detrimental to the young hard working man trying to find a foothold than to the ensconced rich dude.

When I order a hot dog from Dairy Queen and they don't gimme a poppy seed bun like what I asked for than I don't sweat it. I chuck it out the window and keep on trucking. When I was younger and hungrier, that kind of liability figured more and I'd a raised a lot more hell on account of it.

LASVEGASWINNER says

"Maybe I'm asking too much and being unrealistic. I wish interest rates would go up so prices would be forced to come down further"

When interest start rising this time, you will be left at the gate looking for that "dream house" The market is in "recovery" per the time magazine report. Home Depot stock soaring, New Home Starts at a 2 year high, employment up, unemployment down, rents rising.

The spring buying season around Mar 15 to May 30, will be the best in years, and your selection of houses in your price range will get smaller and smaller.

PROFEESIONAL BUYERS AGENT - INVESTOR - SALES ASSOCIATE - PROPERTY MANAGER 35 years experience

I think this exact same thing was said to me in 2005 and again in 2007. I didn't listen then (thank god) and until this puppy finishes the downward course I won't be listening now. Same trick different realtor.

tatupu70 says

nw888 says

Historically housing does not go up with inflation.

Huh? Historically, housing prices absolutely have gone up with inflation.

You can argue that they won't in the future, but you can't argue that they haven't historically.

People on this forum with attempt to argue the dots off a dalmatian if you excite them. This is the court of no accountability. People talk like they know it all, like they have lived it all, and everyone around should stop and listen to them and only them. There have only been a few bits of knowledge exchanged and I think we all get a little dumbed down just by being here.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I think this exact same thing was said to me in 2005 and again in 2007.

And the same thing was said to you 1999...and they were right. So what?

If you say the same thing long enough you will be right eventually.

Rents in Danville/San Ramon are really high! Between $3000 - $4000 for 2000 sq. ft. I can buy a house for these rent prices! CRAZY! RENTS aren't cheaper there and this is where I want to live...

SubOink says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I think this exact same thing was said to me in 2005 and again in 2007.

And the same thing was said to you 1999...and they were right. So what?

If you say the same thing long enough you will be right eventually.

Actually, realtors got much much pushier in 2007. Can't blame them when their commission pay doubled for the same amount of work. Add to that the fall off in sales in 2008 and 2009 when we had too many realtors competing for too little buyers, and things got really silly.

I had a much better view of realtors in 1999. Now they just suck, cause they are leading more and more people into financial prison. You guys are suppose to study this market. You either don't study it well enough, or you purposely are misleading people at this time. In 2 years from now will probably be a good time to buy, but right now is NOT.

Down we go. I'll be enjoying the ride. It is actually like I already own a home that is appreciating. Add to it, I can call my landlord and get shit fixed at anytime without worrying about the cost. Deal!

sheltielover1 says

Rents in Danville/San Ramon are really high! Between $3000 - $4000 for 2000 sq. ft. I can buy a house for these rent prices! CRAZY! RENTS aren't cheaper there and this is where I want to live...

Show me the numbers where you can buy a reasonable house in Danville/San Ramon and be paying less than 3-4K/mth. I've seen some pretty executive style housing (4bd/3ba) in San Ramon in that range. You don't get them for an ownership cost less than 6K/mth, 2K is a lot of savings per month. No?

A quick search of San Ramon today turned up a few houses that are much much cheaper to rent than buy.

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/2828366285.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/2862360150.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/2844094608.html

That took all of about 10 seconds.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Even you know that 1000sqft is a big difference.

I got a 1000 square foot space or thereabouts just for my trophies.

That Agassi sale was 6 years ago and the Spielberg 2 years ago.

For a claimed controller of a SEC registrant, your logic is shocking. I'm horrified actually or just can't comprehend what is being asked and addressed, in this case Patrick's rent/buy calculator.

The CFO of a 70 year old company asks:, "Controller, give me a 7 year projection of SG&A expense for the company". Controller gives the projection based on the 10 years where the company "rightsize" down and ignore the other 60 years where the company's SG&A went from 20M overall to 200M overall.

Boss, SG&A in 2020 will be 185M. Be prepared to explain yourself and pray for the best. (Controller's language based on past interaction, As we have seen in the early 1990's, prices does go down and we were succussful in reducing our SG&A at select periods in the company's history, therefore that is my basis of the forecast)

That's the calculator in a nutshell.

robertoaribas says

Mortgages have built in expenses

Who cares about those expenses when they all are going to be dumped on taxpayers - stupid lawmakers. :(

robertoaribas says

maybe, but there is a bottom limit to rates.

I think we make the mistake sometimes ( I know I do) of thinking about the absolute rate. Say 3% and considering that it doesn't have much room to go down. However, in reality we can go down 10% of that rate pretty easily - to 2.9%. Like a bond that 10% drop is huge when you crunch the numbers. We could drop the relative 10% for the next foreseeable future. The limit, is by putting the 10yr bond at 0%, but we have a ways to go before we are even close. The 10yr bond could drop 10% relative for my lifetime and still not be at 0%. In short, the lower the rate, the smaller the absolute drop required to give a relative 10% drop. We really only care about the relative.

AlexG says

I hope more of fellow Americans will see house for what it is - a place to enjoy and raise your kids

Yeah, but my kids will be grown with all this waiting

1sfrenter says

Yeah, but my kids will be grown with all this waiting

So what are you waiting for? Vote of approval from pat.net? Buy the one that costs the same as renting and move on.