patrick.net

That's cute. (: But really, I need some solid advice and numbers. Patrick.net saved our family from buying at the top, and we are ever grateful for his honest and educated site. We need advice.

BTW - We have an organic garden, with potatoes no less, and my son IS learning Mandarin and I think the Mandarin is going to be more useful for self-defense when he is an adult. China owns us, no matter what fairy tale we tell ourselves at night. That aside, we would like to own a home, and we work here. My business, and long built stellar reputation in my field is unfortunately here in the Bay Area. The Bay Area is a crap hole where everything is priced way to high, but I can't leave my job, and we need the medical with two kids. We live in a tiny house with land enough around the house to garden. I home school, since the school district we live in is pretty bad. My question is: Should we stick it out in the tiny house, bid on the $400,000 crap hole in the good school district, invest, or move.

True.
Okay, no advice, but at least you're making me laugh. (:
I need to laugh right now.

hrhjuliet says

What do you all think? Wait out the Bay Area market a few more years? We have two kids, jobs here and we are renting a 500 square foot home. Should we buy some crap hole under $400,000 in the area, or move to a place where we could have a nice home for $200,000? Should we invest? Please add your reasons why, and any solid data or links you have to help.

I think you answered your own question. Or are you looking for someone to talk you into an imprudent decision, and talk smack about how great it will be, and your kids, will sprout valedictorian graduation fezzes, and their skin will bare the mark of USDOE certified. But to enjoy your $400K 900 sqft bungalow.

Guess its going to depend on your decision. But I have a few personal opinions only because I've been down the road you've been... still am to an extent. So take this with a grain of salt.

First of all, we too rent and in fact rent a pretty nice house and the rent is affordable. The same house would cost us a lot more to buy in regards to having monthly expenses. So as long as you don't mind renting, you can live comfortably here.

Secondly, when you say 400k buys a crap hole, well it depends on a lot of things. If you're one of those people that demands to live in the choicest areas only- as in San Fran, the peninsula, or other highly desirable work-centered locations then sure- 400k will probably be crap. But there are other areas, perhaps not as convenient in places like the East Bay for 400k that aren't bad.

Lastly, yes- moving out of the area is also a possibility. Trust me- we've thought about it for years and looked at a number of other viable cities like Austin, Raleigh, and so on. Problem is that a LOT of other people had the same idea and thus there were a few surprises I got when I was laid off almost 3 years ago an figured I'd just get a job in Austin, buy a nice 200k house or less, and wallah- be done. For starters, the job market in my field ( tech) was TIGHT. As in getting a job was really, really difficult it would seem. Secondly, the salary was less. A lot less. Wouldn't be a big deal if you had money already, but still- its not as easy as just relocating and assuming you'll get a job there. I came away from that experience realizing that if I did decide to move to a city like Austin then it would probably be wise to have a sizable chunk of money in advance. That way let's say I got some sorta lower middle class income job. What if the house was already paid for with my "California Money"? The cost of living would be a lot less. Also- while there were a lot of 100-200k houses in Austin, all of the "cool" areas- aka, non-cookie cutter type neighborhoods were often a lot more. Many have become miniature San Franciscos loaded with lofts and hipsters. As in 300k or more, which doesn't sound like much until you figure in that their property taxes are set at anywhere from 2-3% and that rate goes UP as the value of your house does.

Still another option is to hold out for longer, save up a LOT of cash from your supposedly cushy, well-paying California job, and basically semi-retire somewhere else. My folks live in Semi-rural NC and they own a large piece of land, a decent house, and so on and the value of all of it is well under 200k. Where they live a normal house in say- an acre of land- is still easily less than 150k. I have even seen some for under 100k. So figure you save up lots of dough and go to someplace like that, buy a house for cash, stick the rest into various savings and retirement accounts, get some crappy joe-job that at least pays for your insurance, and call it a day. Sure- it would be a huge shift in lifestyle. I grew up that way. For others it would be a real shocker.

Anyway, Nobody can make a decision for you, and as mentioned, these were my opinions, but good luck to you!

I just want info on where you all think the market is going, the housing market and the stock market. Is $400,000 in the Bay Area a good price, or should I wait?

hrhjuliet says

All answers seem about the same to me. they all seem to suck. I just want info on where you all think the market is going, the housing market and the stock market. Is $400,000 in the Bay Area a good price, or should I wait?

You asked some questions and people gave you some opinions. Where we think the market is going is a guess and nothing more. If you want to know basic info about the stock market,It is suggested that one needs to have 1 million dollars worth of retirement savings by the time you retire. 2 million if you live in an expensive metro ( like the Bay Area). So the later you wait to invest, the more money you'll have to invest in order to reach that goal. The overall stock market ( as in BROAD and diversified investing) has performed at a long-term annual return of 7-10% respectively for the past 100+ years. Some people disagree and point to more recent performance. Having a 401k isn't a bad idea. It doesn't take "sexy" stocks either. Mutual funds and many 401k's are setup with different levels of risk, types of stocks and funds, as well as even some that expose you to international markets. So in other words many are setup so the investors of those funds don't have to do the dirty work of looking up individual stocks and instead they're blended together to hopefully deliver maximum performance. But nevertheless any form of investing comes with risk and so too do stocks.

There are not any right answers here. Like I said- these are merely opinions...

* NOT financial advice.

Thank you edvard2! That was solid advice. That's what I'm looking for opinions and advice. Thank you.

My job is okay, but not dependent on the tech industry. I own my own business and have built a reputation that took 15 years to create. That's my main hesitation with leaving. W have a savings, but it's scary to start from nothing. I started my business while still in college. It's completely clientèle and word of mouth driven, so it really is scary to leave the "goodwill" I've created and move. Not to mention I would be afraid that I couldn't afford medical until I built up my clientèle, which could take years. When I started out that was okay, but now we have two kids, so the risk is greater.

Do you mean invest in mutual funds as an alternative to buying a house?
RE: Mandarin. I've been to China and know some Chinese people. The international language of both business and science is and will be English.
Mandarin has too many homonyms to be a useful spoken language, it's tonal so not easy to any foreigner to learn.
E.G. "Did mom scold the horse?" Mama ma ma ma?"
All of my educated Chinese acquaintances and friends speak English. You should teach your son French so he can at least use that when traveling to a great country.
The "housing market" = prices of houses, in *most places* they are dropping. But you said Bay Area and this may be an exception.
The stock market is going up. How fast and how soon nobody knows.
When interest rates are low or falling, stocks are even a better idea. The point about stocks is that if the economies all over the world slow down, the profits may fall for some companies and their stocks may drop or slow down their rise.
My view for economic success, pay cheap rent and invest in stock mutual funds, e.g. Vanguard Dividend Growth, T.Rowe Price Small Cap Value, Capital Appreciation, Fidelity Contrafund, etc.
But owning a place is attractive for families so this is what is probably what makes sense for your case.