patrick.net

dunnross says

CDon says

Finally, even if they did magically "revert to the mean" today, SJ would fall to 300K. Meaning at the end of the day, our poor guy would refuse to buy at 250K, rent for 18 years waiting for prices to fall, and then buy at 300K.

Yes, except the recession in the 90's was nothing at all, like what we are experiencing now. That was just a small bump in the Roaring Boom of the post WWW-II era. What we have now is a multi-generational depression, a complete paradigm shift.

So what is the point in fighting against the inevitable economic destruction you predict!? Do you really think simply not buying a home is going to save anyone in these doomsday scenarios of yours?

BoomAndBustCycle says

So what is the point in fighting against the inevitable economic destruction you predict!?

I am not predicting anything. The depression is here and now. The FED has thrown everything into trying to save the economy, with ZIRP policy, 2 rounds of QE, Operation Twist, etc, but has not been able to create any jobs or prop up consumer spending. Every post-recession recovery since the 80's has produced less and less jobs, but, this last one, has trumped them all. The recovery has barely started, and we are already headed into a new recession.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Do you really think simply not buying a home is going to save anyone in these doomsday scenarios of yours?

No, that's just one of the ways one can protect oneself against the depression. Other ways is the preservation of capital by keeping a portfolio balanced with cash and precious metals.

i think i can sum of the sentiments of many here; would love the bay area and SF in particular if it wasn't soo $%^&ing overpriced. At least downtown Vancouver knows our pain, yes i grew up here but traveled enough to know how absurd it is.

Danaseb says

i think i can sum of the sentiments of many here; would love the bay area and SF

But this totally ignores the sentiments of many on this blog who agree that:

1. People live everywhere, and for every person who lives somewhere, he is voting with his feet. For him that place is special.
2. For the past 5 years, there was a net outflow of residents out of the Bay Area. Obviously, all those people were voting with their feet.
3. San Francisco and BA has its pros and cons, just like any other place. There is absolutely nothing special about this city, only that some people who live there, think it is special.

dunnross says

There isn't a single day in the year where you can wear a t-shirt in san francisco.

You've posted average data and written the phrase "single day" so hopefully you see the error in the connection between what you've written and the information you've provided.

I get your point, though. There' s only about a month a year where you'd walk around all day in San Francisco in a T-shirt and risk serious sunburn. About half those days are 80s F and above and about half are mid-seventies and above. Definitely depends on what part of San Francisco too. I live on Potrero Hill, so have a particularly sunny view of the weather. My first place was on the West side of Twin Peaks, so I've also experienced the heavier fog of the area and they are very different.

dunnross says

You've just proven my point #4:
>> 4. Only people who live in San Francisco think it's something special.
You live in San Francisco, don't you?

I do, but I disagree. I was trying to make a point with the same thinking as yours. I'm sharing stories about what people who don't live in San Francisco have said to me, the person living in San Francisco.

FunTime says

I do, but I disagree. I was trying to make a point with the same thinking as yours. I'm sharing stories about what people who don't live in San Francisco have said to me, the person living in San Francisco.

Could it be that you, having lived in San Francisco, just filtering out any negative San Francisco reviews, and only responding to the positive ones? Or just, maybe, the people you talked to live in some awful place, like Afganistan. I know most of the people I meet here, who are perfectly satisfied with the Bay Area are all from 3rd world countries like Vietnam and Mexico, but hardly any Europeans like it.

dunnross says

Could it be that you, having lived in San Francisco, just filtering out any negative San Francisco reviews

Oh, no, I'm not saying I only hear positive reviews. I grew up in rural Colorado, where people think, at best, you'll turn gay if you go to San Francisco! So I'm familiar with negative views of San Francisco.

One of the people I have in mind, when I write what I've written here, lived in Munich. He dreamed of moving to San Francisco and finally was relocated by his company. He and his wife have now lived in San Francisco five years and seem to really celebrate their opportunity to be here. He and others seem to think San Francisco has a desirable aspect of European cities. I've not traveled to the European continent much having only visited Rome, Amsterdam, Athens, Munich, Dublin, and Galway, so I'm not sure why they think that about San Francisco. That also seems to be an opinion held, though, by colleagues in Rome, Milan, Stockholm, London and Nuremberg.

It wasnt expensive in the past... why anyone would thing we should be overpriced is weird to say the least...

Below are May 1997 prices..http://archive.dqnews.com/AA1997BAY06.shtm.. factor in inflation and income growth.. we are looking at 30-40% higher prices today..
that would mean prices below would range within the forecast below with actual recent prices at July 2012

as you can see Contra Costa / Solano are just right with 1997 prices + inflation (40%)
Sanoma isnt too bad, but like the chart above stll indicates... others need to still correct. With 40% the numbers may be over-optimistic. You may need those Facebook options after all to skyrocket to buy any home at the median. I would discount Marin ... old money doesnt need income...LOL! Santana is doing just fine!

.............................Actual ..Frcst..Actual Delta + Over - Under priced
Alameda... ............$219 $306 $385 .....78
Contra Costa .......$225 $315 $308.......-7
Marin .....................$357 $499 $660 ......160
Napa ......................$170 $238 $372 ......134
San Francisco ......$289 $404 $565 .......160
San Mateo .............$324 $458 $714 .......260
Santa Clara ...........$302 $422 $618 .......195
Solano ....................$149 $208 $188.........-21
Sonoma ...................$210 $294 $320 ........26
Bay Area ...................$258 $361 $421 .......60

Danaseb says

Idle time is the root of all culture and Bay Areans are far far too busy working overtime for their mega mortgages.

Just go to Dolores Park any weekday in the middle of the day. It's a party all day long as long as the sun is shining.

Those are renters in Dolores Park. The ones whose over priced apts have been spliced and diced to fit as many techie turds as possible. Dolores Park is the rec room for all those without personal space, at $1000 a room a month a pop!

Repeal prop 13!
Ubber tax absentee cutthroat landlords!
Vacancy control now!