patrick.net

It's different this time.

Clearly prices can come down a lot more and still be above the inflation rate.

Or stay flat for another 20 years or so.

gregpfielding says

Or stay flat for another 20 years or so.

In nominal terms. What about after inflation?

My belief is that the Fed will keep trying to prop up housing by devaluing the dollar. The Fed is a private bank that was created to benefit the banks.

So it might be somewhat rational to buy rather than rent...as a hedge against inflation. But what if the Fed decides to tighten for whatever reason? We're at the mercy of the Fed.

The theory makes sense if there are no transformative changes between 1980 and now.

For starter, mortgage interest was around 12% in 1980 vs 4% now. There are other transformative changes (favorable and unfavorable) unaccounted for.