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‘I Am Optimistic that House Prices Could Fall for 20 Years’
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2012 Mar 17, 5:57am 46,826 views 110 comments
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If you add the past 23 years of inflation... to 1989 home prices... We may already be there.
However, 1989 was the peak where prices declined 20-40% in various metros nationwide. After 1989 foreclosures spiked for several years. So skip using 1989 as base and look to mid 90s (1995-97) as a starting point.
David9
2012 Mar 21, 6:52am
After 1989 foreclosures spiked for several years. So skip using 1989 as base and look to mid 90s (1995-97) as a starting point.
So Agree. But I'm not sure if prices will go that low, the fraudsters have done a pretty good job so far.
Yes, they are trying.. but even when we didnt have the intenet back in 1989-95 they couldnt stop the market from melting down.
it happens...$160 * 1.35 = $216 another 50K to go or so..
mid 90s prices... $160K
http://archive.dqnews.com/AA1997SCA05.shtm
inflation 35-40%
Current ...$264
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA120314.aspx
http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/SoCal.html
However, 1989 was the peak where prices declined 20-40% in various metros nationwide. After 1989 foreclosures spiked for several years. So skip using 1989 as base and look to mid 90s (1995-97) as a starting point.
I did one better.. I went back to 1983.. (pre-late 1980s run up)... Like I said, my neighbors home sold for $130K back in 1983.. and is Zillow priced at $410K today. A pretty fair price considering it's 30 years later and assuming 4% annual appreciation.
Couldn't 1997 be an OVERSHOOT to the panic sell side? If historically we ALWAYS overshoot to the downside.. Then 1997 is by no means a starting point.. but a post-quake, post-bust, overshoot to the downside.
Couldn't 1997 be an OVERSHOOT to the panic sell side? If historically we ALWAYS overshoot to the downside.. Then 1997 is by no means a starting point.. but a post-quake, post-bust, overshoot to the downside.
Depends where you live..
I would say on the surface.. Florida looks appealing.
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Mar 21, 8:24am
I just went to an Open House 2 weeks ago and got fed the vomit by a realtor
Big surprise! A realtor tells you to buy a house...he gets paid that way. HELLO?
That doesn't mean you have to listen to it. A dentist wants to drill and fill holes, a showmaker wants to make shoes...an aspect of life, you gotta take everyone's opinion with a grain of salt, especially those that have an agenda. Mortgage brokers, realtors, doctors, insurance reps...blablabla
Everybody wants to make a living. It's your job to figure out what's best for you.
But just because realtors all wanna sell sell sell...doesn't mean buying isn't a good option if it makes financially sense in your own situation.
Very well said.
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http://wallstreetpit.com/76795-robert-shiller-i-am-optimistic-that-home-prices-could-fall-for-20-years
I do not see why people are even debating when home prices are going to bottom. For those who think we have already bottomed nationally, why the heck would one of the top housing forecasters in the US believe it will bottom in two decades!!!! That is 20 YEARS of declining home prices!!!
Unless you are an expert like Robert Shiller and co-founded an indicator to track home prices (Case Shiller Index), you might stand a chance against his predictions.
There is no way home prices have bottomed on a national level when foreclosures are still skyrocketing and the debt crisis is upon us. My point is, if Robert Shiller believes prices will bottom in 20 years, I would think calling the bottom in 10 years would be optimistic!!!! It is common sense!!
#housing