patrick.net

thomas.wong1986 says

After 1989 foreclosures spiked for several years. So skip using 1989 as base and look to mid 90s (1995-97) as a starting point.

So Agree. But I'm not sure if prices will go that low, the fraudsters have done a pretty good job so far.

Yes, they are trying.. but even when we didnt have the intenet back in 1989-95 they couldnt stop the market from melting down.

it happens...$160 * 1.35 = $216 another 50K to go or so..

mid 90s prices... $160K

http://archive.dqnews.com/AA1997SCA05.shtm

inflation 35-40%

Current ...$264

http://dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA120314.aspx

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/SoCal.html

thomas.wong1986 says

However, 1989 was the peak where prices declined 20-40% in various metros nationwide. After 1989 foreclosures spiked for several years. So skip using 1989 as base and look to mid 90s (1995-97) as a starting point.

I did one better.. I went back to 1983.. (pre-late 1980s run up)... Like I said, my neighbors home sold for $130K back in 1983.. and is Zillow priced at $410K today. A pretty fair price considering it's 30 years later and assuming 4% annual appreciation.

Couldn't 1997 be an OVERSHOOT to the panic sell side? If historically we ALWAYS overshoot to the downside.. Then 1997 is by no means a starting point.. but a post-quake, post-bust, overshoot to the downside.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Couldn't 1997 be an OVERSHOOT to the panic sell side? If historically we ALWAYS overshoot to the downside.. Then 1997 is by no means a starting point.. but a post-quake, post-bust, overshoot to the downside.

Depends where you live..

I would say on the surface.. Florida looks appealing.

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/Florida.html

SubOink says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I just went to an Open House 2 weeks ago and got fed the vomit by a realtor

Big surprise! A realtor tells you to buy a house...he gets paid that way. HELLO?

That doesn't mean you have to listen to it. A dentist wants to drill and fill holes, a showmaker wants to make shoes...an aspect of life, you gotta take everyone's opinion with a grain of salt, especially those that have an agenda. Mortgage brokers, realtors, doctors, insurance reps...blablabla

Everybody wants to make a living. It's your job to figure out what's best for you.

But just because realtors all wanna sell sell sell...doesn't mean buying isn't a good option if it makes financially sense in your own situation.

Very well said.