‘I Am Optimistic that House Prices Could Fall for 20 Years’
invite response
2012 Mar 17, 5:57am 46,883 views 110 comments
« First « Previous Comments 99 - 110 of 110 Search these comments
freak80
2012 Mar 21, 5:35am
But but but. There was a big argument back a few weeks ago saying that people with no equity (mortgage) do own their home? I'm confused.
I recall that argument as well. ;-)
How does house insurance work? If I only own 10% of the house, than do I have to insure 100% of the house or 10% of the house? I thought I had to insure 100% of the house, even if I only had 10% equity.
tatupu70
2012 Mar 21, 5:48am
How does house insurance work? If I only own 10% of the house, than do I have to insure 100% of the house or 10% of the house? I thought I had to insure 100% of the house, even if I only had 10% equity.
I'm really confused. Because earlier in the thread Renting made a big point about the difference between homeowner's insurance and renter's insurance. If I have a mortgage, shouldn't I be buying renter's insurance??
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Mar 21, 5:57am
So in reality, home prices in Los Angeles, if we keep dropping will fall back to 1989 prices BEFORE 1997 prices... wrap your head around that!
Me likey. 1989 here we come!
freak80
2012 Mar 21, 6:16am
I guess if you're worried about earthquakes, live in a mobile home. They have shock absorbers to smooth out any "bumps." ;-) And CA doesn't get too many tornadoes.
Me likey. 1989 here we come!
If you add the past 23 years of inflation... to 1989 home prices... We may already be there.
My neighbors bought their home in 1983 according to Zillow. They paid $130K...
Zillow estimates the home to be worth $410K today.... that's an annual rate of 4% inflation...
Maybe a tad high, but not by a ridiculous amount... I'd say 3% appreciation isn't outlandish for premium cities, so maybe 4% appreciation is fair.
I just went to an Open House 2 weeks ago and got fed the vomit by a realtor
Big surprise! A realtor tells you to buy a house...he gets paid that way. HELLO?
That doesn't mean you have to listen to it. A dentist wants to drill and fill holes, a showmaker wants to make shoes...an aspect of life, you gotta take everyone's opinion with a grain of salt, especially those that have an agenda. Mortgage brokers, realtors, doctors, insurance reps...blablabla
Everybody wants to make a living. It's your job to figure out what's best for you.
But just because realtors all wanna sell sell sell...doesn't mean buying isn't a good option if it makes financially sense in your own situation.
If you add the past 23 years of inflation... to 1989 home prices... We may already be there.
However, 1989 was the peak where prices declined 20-40% in various metros nationwide. After 1989 foreclosures spiked for several years. So skip using 1989 as base and look to mid 90s (1995-97) as a starting point.
David9
2012 Mar 21, 6:52am
After 1989 foreclosures spiked for several years. So skip using 1989 as base and look to mid 90s (1995-97) as a starting point.
So Agree. But I'm not sure if prices will go that low, the fraudsters have done a pretty good job so far.
Yes, they are trying.. but even when we didnt have the intenet back in 1989-95 they couldnt stop the market from melting down.
it happens...$160 * 1.35 = $216 another 50K to go or so..
mid 90s prices... $160K
http://archive.dqnews.com/AA1997SCA05.shtm
inflation 35-40%
Current ...$264
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA120314.aspx
http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/SoCal.html
However, 1989 was the peak where prices declined 20-40% in various metros nationwide. After 1989 foreclosures spiked for several years. So skip using 1989 as base and look to mid 90s (1995-97) as a starting point.
I did one better.. I went back to 1983.. (pre-late 1980s run up)... Like I said, my neighbors home sold for $130K back in 1983.. and is Zillow priced at $410K today. A pretty fair price considering it's 30 years later and assuming 4% annual appreciation.
Couldn't 1997 be an OVERSHOOT to the panic sell side? If historically we ALWAYS overshoot to the downside.. Then 1997 is by no means a starting point.. but a post-quake, post-bust, overshoot to the downside.
Couldn't 1997 be an OVERSHOOT to the panic sell side? If historically we ALWAYS overshoot to the downside.. Then 1997 is by no means a starting point.. but a post-quake, post-bust, overshoot to the downside.
Depends where you live..
I would say on the surface.. Florida looks appealing.
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Mar 21, 8:24am
I just went to an Open House 2 weeks ago and got fed the vomit by a realtor
Big surprise! A realtor tells you to buy a house...he gets paid that way. HELLO?
That doesn't mean you have to listen to it. A dentist wants to drill and fill holes, a showmaker wants to make shoes...an aspect of life, you gotta take everyone's opinion with a grain of salt, especially those that have an agenda. Mortgage brokers, realtors, doctors, insurance reps...blablabla
Everybody wants to make a living. It's your job to figure out what's best for you.
But just because realtors all wanna sell sell sell...doesn't mean buying isn't a good option if it makes financially sense in your own situation.
Very well said.
« First « Previous Comments 99 - 110 of 110 Search these comments
http://wallstreetpit.com/76795-robert-shiller-i-am-optimistic-that-home-prices-could-fall-for-20-years
I do not see why people are even debating when home prices are going to bottom. For those who think we have already bottomed nationally, why the heck would one of the top housing forecasters in the US believe it will bottom in two decades!!!! That is 20 YEARS of declining home prices!!!
Unless you are an expert like Robert Shiller and co-founded an indicator to track home prices (Case Shiller Index), you might stand a chance against his predictions.
There is no way home prices have bottomed on a national level when foreclosures are still skyrocketing and the debt crisis is upon us. My point is, if Robert Shiller believes prices will bottom in 20 years, I would think calling the bottom in 10 years would be optimistic!!!! It is common sense!!
#housing