patrick.net

Denying those negative numbers is like saying,the value of every house in my neighborhood has gone down except mine!

It's funny how the title is "Bay Area February Home Sales at Five-year High" instead of "SF Bay Area price fell from $500K in 2006 to $325K in 2012".

Sales are flying off the shelves. We have to discount at 40% off retail, but still they are flying! Products are moving fast, better come in a get yours before they are all gone.

Meanwhile there is a traffic jam at the back of the store because 20 rigs full of goods are all trying to unload at one dock. They only open the dock once a day for 10 minutes also. They wouldn't dare want to flood the shelves and let everyone know the real state of the inventory.

Oh, but wait. Now is the best time to buy one of these shinny huts. Never been a better time. Well, there were better times in the past I guess, and chances are there are better times in the future. But just focusing on the now that is now. Not the now that happened already, or the now that is later. The now now is the perfect time to buy. Wait, I mean now is the perfect time. Crap I can't type fast enough. NOW! NOW! NOW! I can't do it. My head will explode.

I think it's bullsh*t. Even Redfin had the decency today to give some...semi real news:

December Numbers Finally Came In. They're Bad
Yikes, the numbers just out for December 2011 show another 1.1% price drop:

Market MoM Price Change YoY Price Change Date of Max Price Change from Max Price Prices Last at
This Level # of Months
of Decrease
Phoenix 0.8% -1.2% Jun-06 -55.2% Mar-00 0
LA -1.1% -5.2% Sep-06 -40.8% Aug-03 5
San Diego -0.7% -5.4% Nov-05 -39.9% Sep-02 5
Bay Area -0.8% -5.4% May-06 -41.1% Dec-00 5
Denver -0.9% -0.4% Aug-06 -11.9% Apr-02 4
DC Area -1.2% -1.6% May-06 -28.4% Apr-04 3
Atlanta -1.8% -12.8% Jul-07 -36.0% Dec-97 5
Chicago -2.0% -6.5% Sep-06 -34.6% Mar-01 4
Boston -1.2% -2.6% Sep-05 -18.6% Feb-03 5
Las Vegas -0.8% -8.8% Aug-06 -61.4% Jan-97 6
New York -1.2% -2.9% Jun-06 -24.4% Dec-03 4
Portland -0.4% -4.0% Jul-07 -28.8% Sep-04 3
Dallas -0.7% -1.3% Jun-07 -10.5% Apr-02 4
Seattle -1.3% -5.6% Jul-07 -31.9% May-04 5
20 City Index -1.1% -4.0% Jul-06 -33.8% Feb-03 4

Well, all anyone ever talks about on this site seems to be the extremely narrow confines of very specific, highly exclusive neighborhoods in Silicon Valley or San Francisco. So if that's all you're interested in, then yeah- I'd suppose you would think that the entire Bay Area is goin' up or doing better than it really is.

Median's are not that useful, especially over such a short time period as 1 month. I wish they would break out single family homes from condo's/townhouses.

If you look at the bay area for 2011 as a whole, at least you can see prices rose some in the cities with the best schools, and fell in the cities with mediocre to poor schools.

http://dqnews.com/Charts/Annual-Charts/SF-Chronicle-Charts/ZIPSFC11.aspx

bgamall4 says

SF is up, from 589k to 624k. Remember Patrick I said that when that strange guy was saying it was a lie that any real estate in the bay area was going up? Marin is up even more.

Oh well. As mentioned, the only places going up are very specific areas of the Bay Area. Luckily places I wouldn't want to live anyway. In the East Bay prices are still lagging.

bgamall4 says

It's funny how the title is "Bay Area February Home Sales at Five-year High" instead of "SF Bay Area price fell from $500K in 2006 to $325K in 2012".

SF is up, from 589k to 624k. Remember Patrick I said that when that strange guy was saying it was a lie that any real estate in the bay area was going up? Marin is up even more.

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

Good to see hope still is alive and kicking. SF will be the new Stockton when the banks back up the trucks of foreclosures. It is a com'in. You can bet the farm on it.

bgamall4 says

Chinese are buying

Well, you are from Reno, closer than most, and I'm sure there are some foreign buyers. This article was from yesterday. I don't think the Chinese can save the Zombie Banks:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-500395_162-57399904/china-slowdown-could-spur-global-recession/

bgamall4 says

Chinese are buying

So the Chinese are buying up BA,LV,Canada,and the list goes on and on. Just let us know where are they NOT buying?

It is interesting to see how much of the big money is coming from outside the U.S. to buy RE.

everything says

It is interesting to see how much of the big money is coming from outside the U.S. to buy RE

Yep. Just go to The Fortress and see for yourself.

everything says

It is interesting to see how much of the big money is coming from outside the U.S. to buy RE.

when they go belly up, they wont be able to take it with them..

bgamall4 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

SF will be the new Stockton when the banks back up the trucks of foreclosures.

I doubt it. Even in Las Vegas the Chinese are buying and offering lower rents than the locals can offer. So, if Las Vegas is prospering, SF will soar. Now, no one has a crystal ball down the road, because I agree that inventory could become an issue. But if it is inventory away from the revered areas, it shouldn't matter too much.

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

It is like a marching wall of soldiers just inching every closer and closer to the heart of the BA. I'll post this heat map again in about 3 months and we will see what happens to it. My guess, All RED!

bubblesitter says

bgamall4 says

Chinese are buying

So the Chinese are buying up BA,LV,Canada,and the list goes on and on. Just let us know where are they NOT buying?

They are not buying in China. Pretty soon even the Asian party will be over. Then who will save us? The Mexicans? The Canadians? Russians? Hmmm. Nope, we will be left with our own crap to clean up. Screwed!!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-14/chinese-economy-already-in-hard-landing-jpmorgan-says.html

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/12/housing_credit_bubbles_popping_in_china.html

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Then who will save us? The Mexicans? The Canadians? Russians? Hmmm.

New Yorkers. When you hear that from the media, the vested interested played their last card and prices will be close to bottom.

bgamall4 says

Wall Street is betting on the housing recovery.

Im still waiting for the $4 Trillion B2B to explode on the world...
That would make Ariba worth some $55B once again...

They are NOT ususally right... many times over!

bgamall4 says

The Chinese buy because theyhave to lease in China.

Fuck the Chinese!

bgamall4 says

Just today a story that indeed, Wall Street is betting on the housing recovery. They are usually right. It is coming, with no money down, maybe sooner than we think.

They are right because money is printed to make them right.

$5+ gas. Food prices skyrocketing. Cost of doing business here is outrageous. Sure things will possibly "go up", but not anyone's standard of living will - mine is dropping by the day.

Helloeeze says

I will admit, it's a strange market when 32% are cash purchases. I can't imagine $324 being the average price. Maybe for a condo or a small home in a poverty area.

$324K would be the eqivalent of typical middle class tech employee SFH home from the mid 90s prices adjusted for inflation today. If its a condo or a small home in low income area, than its really way overpriced today.

http://archive.dqnews.com/AA1996BAY10.shtm

jeffrey lebowski middle class.