patrick.net

Until they devise a program of free cars for the needy.

How is the data tabulated? Since we also know that Blacks are much more likely to be convicted than whites, even for crimes they did NOT commit, especially if the victims are white.

It's FBI data, so you'd have to ask them. See the link in the thread.

Even assuming some bias in convictions, it would be hard to come up with a 388% difference like that unless it were reflecting something real.

Overall, there were about 3,000 total murders by whites and 3,000 total murders by blacks. But since there are about 5.7 times as many whites, coming up with the same total means black people are about 5.7 times more likely commit murder on average.

You need to take into account that their are more white murder targets than black in this country.

Assume that blacks and whites are (1) equally likely to be murderers, and (2) did not murder people of the same or different race with any preference. Then see how the numbers work out.

Lets say that we have 10,000 people, 85% white, and 15% black. That is 8,500 whites and 1,500 blacks. Let's say that 1 in 100 murderer one person. Then, 85 white people would murder someone and 15 black people would murder someone. Each time a black person murders, they are 85% likely to murder a white person. Each time a white person murders, they are also 85% likely to murder a white person.

So, you have 72 cases of white murdering white & 13 cases of whites murdering blacks.
You have 13 cases of blacks murdering whites, and 2 cases of blacks murdering blacks.

So, despite the fact that there are 1500 blacks and 8500 whites, if there are no differences between the races and no racial preference in motivation, then there are an equal number of murders of whites killing blacks and blacks killing whites.

Now, lets introduce some bias in prosecution. Lets say that all black muderers are caught. Maybe 90% are caught but the 10% that are not are offset by wrongly convicted black people. And let's say that only half of white people are caught. Now you have 13 convictions of blacks killing whites and 7 convictions of whites killing blacks.

So, in this example, assuming that blacks are twice as likely to get caught as whites, there are twice as many blacks killing whites convicted as the reverse. That pretty much matches the statistics.

I made up the numbers of course, but the point of all of this is that the statistics that you linked to by themselves are pretty meaningless, and that the number of targets skew the interracial stats as much as the number of perpetrators.

YesYNot says

You need to take into account that their are more white murder targets than black in this country.

The roughly equal total number of murders committed by white and black people does take that into account. There are equal numbers of murders (3,000 committed by each race), but 5.7 times as many white people in the population.

So you're saying black people are 5.7 times more likely to be convicted than white people, and that makes the total numbers of murders committed by each race come out equal?

That doesn't seem likely.

That doesn't seem likely.

The judiciary is mostly white. Jurors are mostly white.

And class is still a big driver in crime; given that discrimination forces many blacks into the lower rung of the socio-economic ladder, it is no wonder that there would be more opportunity and motive for crime.

http://eji.org/eji/deathpenalty/racialbias

What if Trayvon had been an adult black male in the projects? Wouldn't most (white) Americans have believed that he was probably "up to something", and therefore likely deserved what he got?

Bigotry is a live and well in America, and permeates the system.

I mean, how long did we search for Natalee Holloway? How many blacks go missing every day?

There was a black kid back in November, that blew two kids away in a white Honda Civic, while he was hijacking them. He said he shot them, because they didn't look scared enough. Too bad Zimmer Man couldn't have been there to thwart him.

It's a Bird! It's a Plane! It's Zimmer Man! Able to leap negative press in a single bound, faster than a running wild rumor, able to stop a loco Motive.

CaptainShuddup says

There was a black kid back in November, that blew two kids away in a white Honda Civic, while he was hijacking them. He said he shot them, because they didn't look scared enough. Too bad Zimmer Man couldn't have been there to thwart him.

It's a Bird! It's a Plane! It's Zimmer Man! Able to leap negative press in a single bound, faster than a running wild rumor, able to stop a loco Motive.

That has no bearing. A senseless murder could have been committed by anyone, regardless of ethnicity, especially if the victims were not "scared enough".

Difference is Zimmerman is a vigilante. A murderous, racist, extra-legal, gun-toting freak who kills innocent children.

He'd probably have shot the two kids, but pretend they wounded him as they struggled to get away.

That doesn't seem likely.

Patrick, I was saying that the number of blacks murdering whites would be equal to the number of whites murdering blacks if (1) blacks and whites were equally likely to commit murder and (2) neither blacks nor whites were more likely to murder someone from their own race. Their murder victims were picked randomly, so that 88% were white and 12% were black.

The flip side to that is that the # of white on white murders would be 36 times as high as the number of black on black murders, and that is way off.

Obviously, blacks spend more time with blacks and whites with whites, so those assumptions are not correct. There are also a whole lot of socioeconomic issues to complicate things.

I was just pointing out that your math on the expected # of black on white versus white on black murder is wrong.

I just looked at the lined page & they only include murders where something is known about the offender. There would be a large number of unsolved murders that are excluded as well.

YesYNot says

I was just pointing out that your math on the expected # of black on white versus white on black murder is wrong.

I don't see why my math is wrong.

There are 5.7 times as many white people, but there are obviously exactly the same number of white-black interactions as black-white interactions. They are identical by definition.

Given that same number of interactions, somehow we end up with a large disproportion of black people killing whites than the reverse.

Because assuming no bias, there should be 665/2=333 black on white murders, but you said 125.

Patrick,

If you are truly interested in using mathematics to convery an observation with some accuracy, please run a monte carlo simulation and see how the results turn out. What YesYNOT is suggesting is you are using unequal population samples. You need to account for the real population size of each cohert and the event frequency (murder rate) for each cohert. If there is a random distribution (no bias) of whites killing blacks and blacks killing whites, (cohert combinations) the actual kill rate combinations will be influence by the cohert's relative size. If whites kill more often than blacks, or vice versa, then the draw rate (for the combination) is also different.

Sounds like a good excercise for a curious mind.

CL says

Difference is Zimmerman is a vigilante. A murderous, racist, extra-legal, gun-toting freak who kills innocent children.

I am SOOO thankful our forefathers saw the results of emotional executions.
"They LOOK guilty ! So , burn em at the stake and send them to the dungeon".

How many countries utilize the "Innocent Till Proven Guilty" rule ?
I find it hard to believe the shooting was a random lunatic's act.

TMAC54 says

How many countries utilize the "Innocent Till Proven Guilty" rule ?

Innocent until proven guilty is fine. How many states allow someone who seems so guilty to not even be charged and given a fair trial.

It would seem that just saying he felt threatened is enough ?

TMAC54 says

I find it hard to believe the shooting was a random lunatic's act.

I don't know what that means. Are you saying he was some sort of non random lunatic ?

So a rational white person should be about 100 times more afraid of being killed by a car than being killed by a black person.

I'm terrified of driving. I take the bus.