patrick.net

Greetings folks

I've been living in San Francisco for almost ten years now and am ready to check out - I've rented cheaply (never have paid more than $1K/month, most of the time living in a decent sized 1BR).

But, as you know, that rent money adds up, and after ten years and over $100K, I've got a lot of great memories and experiences but no equity. This is all fine - I've paid down school debts, I've saved, I purchased a car that will last me at least 10 years, and even if I had bought in the first year I could possibly afford something (2005), I'd almost certainly have seen the value of my purchase drop. So, no regets.

But now I think it may be time to move forward, and I am thinking about purchasing a condo. I'm of course educating myself on the potential pitfalls of condo ownership, but so far I'm still thinking a condo is about the only way for me to build up any kind of equity. And the only nearby area that fits my budget is Oakland. (I could comfortably afford $250K+, but would only serioulsy consider condos at half that price or lower). And yes, there does seem to be some places that seem halfway decent in that price range! Nothing fancy, of course, but remember I've rented on the cheap in SF for the past 10 years and am totally comfortable with that level of living. I like having spending money!

I understand there are many problems with Oakland, but I think some of these condos in the Adams Point / Lake Merritt areas are "reasonably" priced. PLus, these neighborhoods, as far as I've experienced, are about as safe as many neighborhoods in SF, based on crime stats, anyway.

What do you all think? I've had this idea for 2-3 years now, and have enjoyed watching prices decline, and I am so grateful I didn't jump into to something at the wrong time

But, I'm wondering if now is the time.

Finally, I wanted to share some realtor-speak with you all, see below. It is from an email list I joined at one point or another for an East bay realtor. Note the scare tactics re: offering more than the list price. I understand this is realtor-speak, but it may have some truth, based on the incredibly low inventories? There's a lot of folks like me who are priced out of SF to whom Oakland, particuarly downtown and Lake Merritt, seems a viable option.

Any thoughts/perspective you may have is appreciated.

Cheers

Scarcity continues, market recovery in full swing

Oakland tops the national list of year over year drop in inventory, down as it is 52 per cent in a new poll by Realtor.com that surveys single family homes, condos, townhouses and co-ops in markets across the country.

The poll confirms our experience: Shallow inventory, increasing prices and multiple offers on properties.

More desirable Oakland properties are remaining less time on the market. Median list price is $346,120 in all residential categories. Experts agree this cluster of factors must attend before a real estate market can begin the road to recovery – which ours certainly has. Four other west coast metropolitan areas made the top ten national list of substantially lower inventories: Fresno, Bakersfield, Portland Oregon/ and Vancouver, Washington and greater Seattle.

How to compete successfully now? We have about an 85% success record with clients who follow our offering price advice. Those whose offers are accepted make an offer not on the listing price but on an evaluation of value rather than listing, on what our calculations indicate will be the accepted sales price, which although of course higher still represents a significant value when compared with 2006 price levels. And clients who succeed are decisive and prepared with pre-approval in hand. Those who cleave to the listing price or a price slightly higher do not stand a chance.

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