patrick.net

I feel your frustration.

Basically _most_ people who bought in the last 10 years can't sell, b/c they are underwater and they don't want to take a loss.

So where is the 'supply' going to come from?

_may be_ banks will trickle some shadow-inventory?

Strange market indeed!

What I am hearing from the Realtor I'm working with is that tons of people are basically stuck. A LOT of them bought during the bubble and in many cases their houses are worth 30%-50% less than what they paid. So they are sort of stuck more or less.

Sure- there's "Pent up demand", but that doesn't necessarily equal more sales seeing as how a far smaller percentage of those who want to buy can as they could in 2005 now due to much greater, stricter credit and financial requirements. That's the rub: TONS bought in 2003-2006 with crappy credit and little wiggle room and now TONS can't sell, thus there is less inventory overall. That doesn't mean that suddenly everyone now somehow has more money and homes are gonna' go right back to 2006 prices...

1sfrenter ,
Have you thought of looking somewhere else other than SF? I have friends that live there who are also looking and it sounds absolutely nutty over there. To me there is SF and the Peninsula... and then there's everywhere else. We're not even considering SF or SV as its basically out of our range entirely.

I'm going throught he same thing in the East Bay.

I've made 5-6 offers in 2012... All multiple offers, all well above asking. My offers have been in the $20K above asking price range and I am being told I was not even in the ballpark.

Things weren't all that different last fall. Bidding wars have been going on at some level for the last 3 years - I recall seeing stories in 2009 of dozens of offers on certain SF properties. It's not like the market was totally dead from 2009-2010 because it wasn't -remember the tax credit frenzy/incentive to buy? One problem is you are looking at what is traditionally the busiest time of year.

spring/summer is sheep shearing time in RE

At least wait until the fair weather 'must buy b4 school starts' buyers are gone (sept/oct)

edvard2 says

TONS bought in 2003-2006 with crappy credit and little wiggle room and now TONS can't sell

I would say that anyone with "crappy credit" or not enough income to afford their home already foreclosed long ago. I do know a bunch of highly paid upper middle class dual income professionals who bought in 2004-2006. I'd imagine another HUGE leg down in housing would make this round of buyers seriously consider strategic default. They already feel manipulated and cheated.... so while the sub-prime mortgage crisis is over. If home prices are allowed to fall another 40% like some are calling for.. We'll have an entirely new crisis on our hands... the strategic default crisis.