patrick.net

If the market is as hot as you say it is, all the more reason NOT to participate in it.

Patrick, business idea, set up a site where the Realtors can go and bang their drums.

You can call it 'Patrick Fox' lol

I'm not saying it's legitimate or that it will last, but the numbers are what they are.

My prediction is the next time we see a headline like above, it will really be on fire. Literally.

What about numbers of homes available for sale in 2005 and now? Same dynamics?

zhanka says

What about numbers of homes available for sale in 2005 and now? Same dynamics?

This comment was in response to:

It's not that sales are through-the-roof, but they certainly are very high compared with the number of properties for sale. The Supply/Demand balance is looking like 2005.

zhanka says

What about numbers of homes available for sale in 2005 and now? Same dynamics?

There was more inventory, but also more sales. The ratios were similar.

gregpfielding says

There was more inventory

Exactly, thats was my point, more inventory, more people were willing to sell and more people were more confident to buy than right now.

Population in California is increasing by 1% every year

Even considering cal. population is increasing by 1% every year, it does not justify such a low inventory, obviously the inventory shortage due to the others reasons.

... and once more we have an argument between the house investors who will naturally always project housing as the best thing ever since their financial futures count on it and the home buyers or would be buyers who want prices to fall dramatically and perhaps unrealistically.

Both will be disappointed.

Anyway, there's nothing amazing going on here. There is less supply. Thus less supply means more demand and more demand means more sales per capita.

Secondly, yes- the population of California is increasing. But its also losing population as well as the middle class moves out and more working class moves in, thus if that's the case that would actually indicate future home value declines.

Doesn't really matter if the population is increasing. It's about household formation. Lots of people can't afford to live entirely on their own anymore for a variety of reasons, but mostly economic ones. Population growth doesn't necessarily tell the whole story. BTW, construction being dead is not unique to California.

Yes - Mr. Fielding has chosen the more affluent areas, so the thread title is misleading. What if you include Oakland, San Leandro, Hercules, Pinole, and San Pablo? They're part of the East Bay too.

I wonder what the shadow inventory is like in those affluent cities - and how many squatters there are who haven't entered the foreclosure pipeline yet.

Last week I did searches at foreclosureradar.com and Redfin for the city of Oakland, where I'm hoping to buy my first house. I found about 600 active listings and 1,650 houses in some stage of foreclosure, for a ratio of 2.75 to 1.

According to the author of the ochousingnews.com blog, for every loan owner in the 'preforeclosure' stage, there are two others who have defaulted but who have not yet received a notice of default.

So yes, while the market manipulation by the banks and the spring season seem to be driving a 'rally', it sure doesn't seem to be a healthy market, at least not in Oakland. Maybe those more affluent areas were less affected by the bubble.

As for CA population trends, here's another perspective:

http://tinyurl.com/7zhbkq3

Marin is pretty quiet. Perhaps it will pick up soon?

I just spoke with a friend who owns a home in the east bay. He told me that he's received postcards from two realtors in the past week telling him the time is ripe to sell. Should be an interesting summer.

Housing is luxury item like diamonds. NO ONE needs one (SFR that is). Might as well complain about the Debeers diamond monopoly as well as the 'governemnt making prices always go up in RE'.

Only purpose of diamonds is to make jewelers rich, enhance ego/status of buyers. Same with housing.

Anyway I still like complaining.

rowemoore says

I just spoke with a friend who owns a home in the east bay. He told me that he's received postcards from two realtors in the past week telling him the time is ripe to sell. Should be an interesting summer.

We receive those postcards regularly, doesn't mean anything. Some realtors are even go door to door :) When we rented a few years ago some realtors knocked asking if we're would like to sell...

edvard2 says

you have to look at the type of population that's moving in

Yeah, when I moved to LA 5 years ago, there were usually only about 10 illegal migrant laborers hounding me at the Home Depot parking lot entrance. Now there's at least 15 or more. There's your 1% yearly population increase.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

Did you?

what do you mean? sell a house that we rent?

zhanka says

rowemoore says

I just spoke with a friend who owns a home in the east bay. He told me that he's received postcards from two realtors in the past week telling him the time is ripe to sell. Should be an interesting summer.

We receive those postcards regularly, doesn't mean anything. Some realtors are even go door to door :) When we rented a few years ago some realtors knocked asking if we're would like to sell...

I have rec'd some of these here in Marin -- but only 1 every month or 2 - saying that the market could be like this for years and since interest rate are so low now is the best time to sell.

My friend said the cards he got referenced the same info as the OP saying the if you've been waiting , the wait is over!

If I was looking to sell, I'd probably do it this summer.

Greg, thanks for the graphs. Inventory is low in Sonoma County as well, nice stuff is selling at 1997 prices in nominal dollars.

Here's one of the disturbing trends of the out migration from California to other states. According to Mr. Kotkin, most of those leaving are between the ages of 5 and 14 or 34 to 45. In other words, young families.

EBGuy says

Sure, crap like that happens all the time.

Just read about a racketeer who sold a guy's house from underneath him after 21 years of paying down a 30 year note.

Spanish speaking guy he defrauded through a translator making him believe he was taking out a HELOC when he was selling the place.

This is what the RE trade is all about!

Reminds me of mess we had in Russia in 1990s, many people back than lost their properties in exchange for "another" one which was just a worthless piece of paper that looked like a real one with all needed signatures.

Rental Watch says

All three of these will fuel price increases and new home development once the distressed sales begin to decrease.

How do employment numbers and income factor into this?