patrick.net

E-man says

25% down on all except one, which was 10% down and total PITI of $950 and rented for $1,550.

With 25% down deal are just OK, deals like this you can still find plentiful slightly out of center SV. PITI do not cover all rental expenses. Next one with 10% looks great. NET ROI is what matter to me.

I think opportunity is not lost yet. Currently three events push prices up: low inventory, growing rent (scary for some) and decreasing interest rate. What may happen next?
RE: inventory. Most people already accepted the fact that 2006 prices won’t return any time soon. Current spike with prices can be seen as last chance to sale for reasonable price.
RE: rent. New construction of rental communities entering; some renters purchased empty houses; more investor units hit open market. All of this can ease rent increases, stop grow completely or decrease somewhat.
RE: interest rate. Continue decreasing interest rate did not stop house prices from further decrease in Japan. What do we have on horizon able to elevate economy beside of lowering interest rate?

E-man says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

E-man says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Debt is for the weak. ;)

Tell that to the greatest investor of all times, Mr. Warren Buffett. It's more like no debt is for the fearful while debt is simply a double edge sword. ;)

Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure.

Swords are for the weak. I'd rather use my bare hands.

LOL! Hands are for the weak. The smart ones use their brain. ;)

Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure.

I use the brain of the enemy for throwing practice with my bare hands. Brains are also for the weak. Nothing beats a good set of hands.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

How about the scenario of renting for 1500/mth while socking away 1500/mth in real investments that pay dividends. After 20 years you buy a house in cash and have money left over to live.

Hope is not a bank stock.

E-man says

The smart ones use their brain. ;)

The smart ones use their mouths!

REpro says

Continue decreasing interest rate did not stop house prices from further decrease in Japan.

Every time I read someone quote Japan, I need to comment. Population of Japan has been declining and aging for the past 20 years while population of USA is forecasted to continue to increase briskly and remains youthful. Japan can't be used as a reference.

hanera says

Every time I read someone quote Japan, I need to comment. Population of Japan has been declining and aging for the past 20 years while population of USA is forecasted to continue to increase briskly and remains youthful. Japan can't be used as a reference.

Population of USA is forecasted…aha.
Most of population grow in the past was associated with fresh immigrants coming to US. Now with weak economy as we have now it is not a magnet to immigrants any more. Currently more illegal Mexicans are living US, than coming into. Baby Boomers are aging too, right? What do you think this big housing company will do? E.g. KB Home, they still build new houses in Las Vegas, while prices continue to erode.

REpro says

Population of USA is forecasted…aha.
Most of population grow in the past was associated with fresh immigrants coming to US. Now with weak economy as we have now it is not a magnet to immigrants any more. Currently more illegal Mexicans are living US, than coming into. Baby Boomers are aging too, right? What do you think this big housing company will do? E.g. KB Home, they still build new houses in Las Vegas, while prices continue to erode.

I don't get what you are arguing. The US has net immigration. That is just a fact.

Simply, we can’t count on rapid grow of population based on current situation.

REpro says

Simply, we can’t count on rapid grow of population based on current situation.

The original point is what'd happened in Japan is not a good indication of what might happen in USA. Population growth statistics is just one difference. Another is Japanese are big savers while Americans are big spenders. Also, White House and Fed are well aware of what had happened in Japan, unless we don't learn, we should be able to avoid some of their pitfalls.

REpro says

Simply, we can’t count on rapid grow of population based on current situation.

That entirely depends on what you mean by rapid.

REpro says

hanera says

Every time I read someone quote Japan, I need to comment. Population of Japan has been declining and aging for the past 20 years while population of USA is forecasted to continue to increase briskly and remains youthful. Japan can't be used as a reference.

Population of USA is forecasted…aha.

Most of population grow in the past was associated with fresh immigrants coming to US. Now with weak economy as we have now it is not a magnet to immigrants any more. Currently more illegal Mexicans are living US, than coming into. Baby Boomers are aging too, right? What do you think this big housing company will do? E.g. KB Home, they still build new houses in Las Vegas, while prices continue to erode.

Bring in 5 new migrants + home grown babies and ship 5 highly paid jobs to Chindia. That sure is going to economically help USA in the long run. Chindia has the most population in the world but most people are living below poverty lines. Same thing will very well happen here. Let the population of USA double but that ain't going to lift the living standards in any ways. :)

hanera says

Also, White House and Fed are well aware of what had happened in Japan

Haha. Thanks for the laugh. Good morning to you.

hanera says

The original point is what'd happened in Japan is not a good indication of what might happen in USA. Population growth statistics is just one difference. Another is Japanese are big savers while Americans are big spenders. Also, White House and Fed are well aware of what had happened in Japan, unless we don't learn, we should be able to avoid some of their pitfalls.

It’s happening now, not only in the US but in Europe, as well. Very high unemployment between after school young and people after 50, work on contract instead full time permanent employment, lack motivation to get married and have children, extended work hours, reduced benefits, saving instead of spending, this is just example.
White House and Fed had 20 years to study what had happened in Japan. They don’t get it.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/24/news/economy/national-debt-us-japan/index.htm?iid=Lead

supersunken says

The all cash offers are ridiculous. Where do people even come up with the money?

LOL, all offers are made in cash.. all sales transactions are finalized in cash... USD$. Did the buyer borrow ? who know, not tracked and that info is most likely kept with their banks/lender.. which after all is confidential info.

Expose The Liars says

immigration is flat to negative.

Could be true for the overall USA. It doesn't matter though, for The Fortress.

Patrick had bad experience shopping for a house to buy in The Fortress, so he's renting in The Fortress, then he made this website.

Expose The Liars says

WRONG

Population growth is the lowest level in US history per 2010 census. Secondly, immigration is flat to negative.

Nice try you fuckin' liar.

According to the census, the population grew 9.7% between 2000 and 2010. Net migration was positive every single year during that period, and for 2010, it was 4.25 migrants/1000 population. What part of that makes me a liar?
And do you really expect population growth to be as high as in decades gone by? In comparison to other developed nations, that growth rate is still very high.

Bigsby says

According to the census, the population grew 9.7% between 2000 and 2010

It has been proven over and over that population growth doesn't cause house prices to go up. If it did, then countries like Zimbabwe and Niger would have the highest growth in house prices, but in fact, prices in those countries have fallen, not increased. What you need for house price appreciation is an ample supply of high paying jobs. What we have between 2000 and 2010 is a decline in high paying jobs.

Expose The Liars says

Typical liar. Always misrepresenting the truth.

Population growth is lowest in history of the US.

Immigration is flat.

Quit lying.

Population growth is higher than it was between 1930 and 1940, so it's not the lowest in history. And where in my post did I claim that population growth was higher than in the past? I only talked about whether migration rates were positive or negative. Net migration is not flat, otherwise you wouldn't have positive numbers for the last decade. Not exactly difficult to understand, though apparently it is for you.

dunnross says

It has been proven over and over that population growth doesn't cause house prices to go up. If it did, then countries like Zimbabwe and Niger would have the highest growth in house prices, but in fact, prices in those countries have fallen, not increased. What you need for house price appreciation is an ample supply of high paying jobs. What we have between 2000 and 2010 is a decline in high paying jobs.

I don't know whether that is true or not for the US, but my point had nothing to do with whether it affected prices or not.

dunnross says

It has been proven over and over that population growth doesn't cause house prices to go up.

certainly does not prevent them from declining.. even in the best areas..
see Orange county early 90s ...

Expose The Liars says

Wrong again.

Why lie about something so easily verifiable?

Ha, ha. Then give us a reputable link that demonstrates net migration has been negative. I'll be waiting.

Expose The Liars says

Nice switch JackAss.

Population growth is the lowest in history. Quit lying.

You've just demonstrated your proclivity for lying. We are talking about net migration not population growth. You said immigration was flat. It's not. You called me a liar. You are the one lying.

Expose The Liars says

Bigsby says

Population growth is higher than it was between 1930 and 1940,

Wrong again.

Why lie about something so easily verifiable?

I'm still waiting. Figures for 1930-1940 please.

Expose The Liars says

You've just demonstrated one more lie. We are talking about population growth. You said population growth wasn't the lowest in US history.

You lied. And you will continue to lie. And we will continue to expose your lies.

Pip pip

A born liar. Everyone can simply scroll up and see the post you responded to. And I quote:

"The US has net immigration. That is just a fact."

Bigsby says

Expose The Liars says

You've just demonstrated one more lie. We are talking about population growth. You said population growth wasn't the lowest in US history.

You lied. And you will continue to lie. And we will continue to expose your lies.

Pip pip

A born liar. Everyone can simply scroll up and see the post you responded to. And I quote:

"The US has net immigration. That is just a fact."

Bigsby, you're fighting with someone who has the maturity and intellectual capacity of a 2nd grader. You're wasting your time.

rooemoore says

Bigsby, you're fighting with someone who has the maturity and intellectual capacity of a 2nd grader.

You are being very generous to him.

I'm still waiting for his figures for 1930-1940 and the net migration rates for the last decade.

Expose The Liars says

Lie #414

You are counting your lies now?

Oh well, here we go:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_United_States_Census

I believe that says 7.3%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Census

I believe that says 9.7%.

Now my maths may not be the strongest, but I'm pretty sure 9.7% is higher than 7.3%

Expose The Liars says

Typical Lying Realtor.... you selected a single year out of a 200 year history and called it truth.

You lying misrepresenting piece of shit you.

Ha, ha, ha. It isn't for a single year. It's for the decade. And you brought it up not me. I said that there was net immigration. You denied that. You were wrong. You then said, and I quote, "Population growth is lowest in history of the US." I said it was lower between 1930 and 1940. You've just demonstrated with your own post that you were wrong. You really are an idiot.

Bigsby The Liar says

Typical lying realt-liar. Obfuscating and misrepresenting the truth.

You filthy liar.

Now, now, calm down JHS boy. Just because it's been shown that you are a complete moron, there's no need to get angry. It's simply the cards you've been dealt with.

Bigsby The Liar says

You lied you filthy liar.

Ha, ha. Getting a bit frustrated now, are you? You lied, or are you incapable of understanding your own posts?

Bigsby The Liar says

You're a proven liar.

I think you mean that you've just proven you're a liar. Your posts are here for all to see. Remind me what the net migration rates have been for recent years, negative/flat or positive? Remind me which period had the lower population growth, 1930-1940 or 2000-2010?
Practice your reading skills. It may help, though I doubt it.

Bigsby The Liar says

You're a proven liar time and time again.

I do believe you've run out of things to say. You're just a stuck record.

Bigsby The Liar says

I believe your a filthy liar. And so does everyone else.

You lied.

The wumming skills are weak in this one... along with his reading skills.

Bigsby The Liar says

You're a known and proven liar.

Spat your dummy out, have you? Oh, well, I'm bored with this, but thanks for allowing me to demonstrate what a complete and utter bullshitter you are. Enjoy JHS tomorrow.

Even if you take the 'low' population increase of 9.7% between 2000 and 2010, you are looking at just shy of another 30 million people who will be living in the USA by 2020...nearly the entire population of Canada or of California. These folks are going to have to live somewhere.....over the last several years, there has only been 500K-700K housing starts per year. I am guessing this is at least 50% of what the required supply needed is if you average 2 persons/housing start. Of course we have been told repeatedly that there are gazillions of empty houses out there held by the banks....and that may in fact be true...but it does not help anyone if they remain empty and not utilized.