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Is buying a house (ever) a good idea?


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2012 May 30, 7:52am   30,425 views  107 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

Posted for Patrick.net reader B.

Patrick --
Something I don't read about much is whether it's still a good idea to even
consider buying a house at all, at any price, ever.

Things have changed so much in the last 15 years or so. How many people have
real job security? Apart from federal employees, not that many people. Fifteen
years ago the economy was way more stable, you could pretty much bet on having
a job the next year so you could pay your mortgage.

Second, most existing houses were built for a world that no longer exists --a
world where energy was cheap (to heat and cool your house, to drive to and from
the house,etc), a world where the economy was almost always expanding, where
jobs were plentiful and well paid, for the most part. A world where property
taxes, repairs, insurance and utilities were usually reasonable. None of those
things are cheap anymore. Most houses are also poorly located too far from good
mass transit, shopping, jobs, etc, since city planning in most US cities has
been so poor. Not to mention that most US houses are at best of mediocre
construction quality, built with cheaper materials, requiring constant and
expensive maintenance.

Buying a house in an unstable economy with declining job prospects means that
it's unlikely you will be able to sell the house down the road in a few years
for what you paid, thus you won't be able to move to another area in case your
job evaporates and the local economy tanks. Federal loans can't prop up the
housing market forever, and the economy really no longer needs that many people
to function, with automation and outsourcing.

The single family home may be an artifact from an earlier time that served a
purpose for a time, but for the above reasons may just not work anymore for
most people. Times have changed, but people remain stuck in the thinking that
owning a house is wonderful, profitable, always a good idea, etc. Many houses
that sell for substantial amounts even now may be basically worthless in 10 or
15 more years, for the above reasons.

B.

#housing

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87   Austin TX   2012 May 31, 8:33am  

With all due (and not so due) respect... this is about you. Otherwise, I'd likely be engaging someone with a legitimate argument or concern, or talking about things like when rates will go back up, what that may do to home values, shadow inventories, etc... Instead, I'm addressing one person with two screen names about phantom misrepresentations you have yet to clarify.

I'll admit at first your comments, insults and name calling angered me, but now I find them sad. Somewhere in your medicine cabinet is a bottle with more pills than it ought to have. I suggest you log out and locate it.

88   zesta   2012 May 31, 8:51am  


wthrfrk80 says

Patrick, is there a way to fix the problem of banned folks changing their names constantly?

Actually, if you're banned, you're banned by IP address. Name changes don't get around that.

The one guy who changes his name all the time isn't banned. In fact, the only IP addresses that are banned right now are spammers (mostly Russian for some reason), and one guy who just keeps personally insulting me every time I let him back on.

If you "ignore" a user though, he will be ignored no matter what he changes his name to.

.. so why isn't he banned? Every other post seems like he's insulting another user.

89   KILLERJANE   2012 May 31, 9:59am  

Ignore works nice

90   Patrick   2012 May 31, 10:23am  

zesta says

.. so why isn't he banned? Every other post seems like he's insulting another user.

Yes, he's annoying. I have a hard time banning anyone though (except spammers - I absolutely LOVE banning them).

Why not use the ignore feature, or dislike his comments?

I'm going to have some anti-troll feature which lets you filter by dislike/like ratio soon.

91   Austin TX   2012 May 31, 10:35am  

I think voluntary, low-tech "ignore" works wonders. It's just that new commenters like me will experience a learning curve to identify those for whom low-tech ignore is the only option. It's not in my nature to ignore people--online or in real life. Anything "automated" that might mitigate this necessity would only enhance the social media thing you've got going on here.

Until then, I'll try to expedite the learning curve. :-)

92   Auntiegrav   2012 May 31, 1:02pm  

I guess it just gets confusing to read the comments when you Ignore someone. It's like everyone is talking about a ghost response that you can't see. That's why it's hard to choose that option in the thread.
Oh well.. (click), and the silence is deafening.

Back to your regularly scheduled marketing.

93   zesta   2012 May 31, 3:41pm  


zesta says

.. so why isn't he banned? Every other post seems like he's insulting another user.

Yes, he's annoying. I have a hard time banning anyone though (except spammers - I absolutely LOVE banning them).

Why not use the ignore feature, or dislike his comments?

I'm going to have some anti-troll feature which lets you filter by dislike/like ratio soon.

Everytime I post I see the disclaimer: "Insult Another User, Get Suspended" It seems pretty black and white to me.

It's not that the insults bother me, in fact I don't think I've been insulted on this board (yet). This board is excellent because there are some great users which lead to in-depth discussions and analysis. However "trolling" or insults often lead to the discussions completely derailed. I really believe the board loses some people and thoughts that would normally add to the discussion, but choose not to when they see elementary school banter.

94   seaside   2012 May 31, 4:48pm  

Austin TX, I believe what you said as I live in DC area and witnessed few people making a fortune with real estate. They're those people who bought couple houses arround 2000~2002, sold them later arround 2005~6 with chunky profit. Boy, wasn't it crazy back in 2005, especially in arlington county? In fact, pretty much anyone who bought before 2002 in DC area still is a winner, still can sell for profit as DC housing market is still quite strong hovering at 2003 to 2006 level depending on the location. There never been a buyer's market in the better part of DC area only with an exception of late 2008 and early 2009. Unfortunately, I was piss poor back then. Not taking a ninja loan while I can is why I am still renting I guess. Renters like me in DC area lost. Rent went up, regardless of what's happening in the other part of US. DC's rent control law is laughable, and Virginia has no rent control.

That's what DC area is about, but I bet people in better part of SF and NY had seen similar stuff. Others may think differently.

95   unstoppable   2012 May 31, 5:40pm  

If you have the skills buying a house to remodel is like picking up a second job. The truth is that wealth is often created by working more hours. remodeling is a bitch but you are your own boss and can control the hours. If you do a buy/rent calculation and it comes out as a push but you sincerely have skills with tools, I say buy and kiss all your other hobbies goodbye.

96   Bigsby   2012 May 31, 6:43pm  

Austin TX says

I didn't misrepresent anything. If you feel the need to accuse, then prove it. Quote me as saying that people should buy because they'll make tons of money.

I'm guessing you've had some bad experiences with housing in the past. Don't take it out on others, and learn some civility while you're at it. Clearly the "Insult Another User, Get Suspended" rule is only for a select few. Use your loose leash wisely for a change...

Don't waste your energy. He's clearly on a wind up. "ALL finished items depreciate ALWAYS." Of course they do. You just need to look at paintings by Monet, Renoir, Van Gogh... to see how true his statement is. I would love to be suffering the 'depreciation' that STL envisages would have inevitably occurred from say my great grandfather purchasing a Cézanne in the 1890s.

97   Leopold B Scotch   2012 May 31, 10:36pm  

Bigsby says

Don't waste your energy. He's clearly on a wind up. "ALL finished items depreciate ALWAYS." Of course they do. You just need to look at paintings by Monet, Renoir, Van Gogh... to see how true his statement is. I would love to be suffering the 'depreciation' that STL envisages would have inevitably occurred from say my great grandfather purchasing a Cézanne in the 1890s.

Unless you house was built by a Frank Lloyd Wright, it depreciates absent inflationary economic policies that push unbacked money and credit through the system to interest sensitive assets, along with other house-ownership coddling policies that short-circuit the market's natural pricing self-governance. Just like most art on the walls of most all households is worth a fraction of what they paid.

Same for a car, unless it's a rare 57 chevy, or a RR, or something of high collector demand. ETC.

98   zzyzzx   2012 May 31, 11:40pm  

seaside says

I live in DC area and witnessed few people making a fortune with real estate. They're those people who bought couple houses arround 2000~2002, sold them later arround 2005~6 with chunky profit. Boy, wasn't it crazy back in 2005, especially in arlington county? In fact, pretty much anyone who bought before 2002 in DC area still is a winner, still can sell for profit as DC housing market is still quite strong hovering at 2003 to 2006 level depending on the location. There never been a buyer's market in the better part of DC area only with an exception of late 2008 and early 2009. Unfortunately, I was piss poor back then. Not taking a ninja loan while I can is why I am still renting I guess. Renters like me in DC area lost. Rent went u

I saw the same thing happening.

99   Bigsby   2012 May 31, 11:58pm  

Leopold B Scotch says

Unless you house was built by a Frank Lloyd Wright, it depreciates absent inflationary economic policies that push unbacked money and credit through the system to interest sensitive assets, along with other house-ownership coddling policies that short-circuit the market's natural pricing self-governance. Just like most art on the walls of most all households is worth a fraction of what they paid.

Same for a car, unless it's a rare 57 chevy, or a RR, or something of high collector demand. ETC.

And who's arguing with that? But, and it's a rather big but, that is not what STL said. He can make his points in a reasoned and informed way like you do or he can do what he's been doing so far. It's his choice, though I'm pretty sure I know which path he's going to (continue to) take.

100   MoneySheep   2012 Jun 1, 12:00am  

edvard2 says

I would disagree with this for a number of reasons. Basically because if you compare real estate to overall stocks in the long run stocks outperform real estate by a fairly good margin. In many circles its suggested to take as long as possible to pay off a house. In doing so you're taking the money you're not spending on a mortgage payment and putting it into investments that will over the long run give you more return. Likewise if you pay for a house with cash, your cash is then tied up to again- an investment that isn't going to perform as well and in many ways puts the money at more of a risk come something awful- like if you lost the house for some reason.

edvard2 says

But besides the point, if you're about to buy a house, in my opinion you should already have a sizable amount of not only cash, but retirement savings as well.

I think we have some "similar thought". The idea is to have lots of savings first, then buy a house. When you have more than enough cash to pay for house, you can choose to pay a portion of the price in cash, the rest in loans. But you know you have enough cash available to wipe it clean if you choose to.

Eventually, a paid for house relieve you from financial stress, and you can go about your life peacefully.

101   KILLERJANE   2012 Jun 1, 2:51am  

@edvard and the like of savings, retirement funds

Cash? What? It is just paper! Fiat. The country has major problems. Cash is paper with only the value we and the rest of the planet value it at. Recently I have read of other countries trading for oil in a basket of other currencies.

I would rather have clean water, food, shelter.

Cash? Think about what that really is.

What happened to the retirement funds 3, 4 years ago cAn happen again. I talk to some retirees who work at home depot because of a loss of retirement funds.

102   freak80   2012 Jun 1, 2:56am  

KILLERJANE says

Cash? Think about what that really is.

It's what you must get AFTER money, but BEFORE ho's...

103   KILLERJANE   2012 Jun 1, 2:59am  

Ho's? They won't accept your cash if it only is worth the paper it's printed on, better head to mcDs for a BIG MAC barter, IMHO.

104   Bigsby   2012 Jun 1, 1:25pm  

Troll Hunter says

And you can continue to make misrepresentations. And we will be here to expose them and you.

Have you found yourself yet?

105   Bigsby   2012 Jun 2, 2:58am  

Troll Hunter says

Bigsby says

Troll Hunter says

And you can continue to make misrepresentations. And we will be here to expose them and you.

Have you found yourself yet?

Have you stopped lying yet?

Put your glasses on. It might help.

106   rufita11   2012 Jun 3, 8:03am  

Austin TX says

You can call me the King of England if you want, Scam. Show me the proof. What exactly am I lying about???

My wife is the cupcake. And only I get to call her that...

Thank you for the craving. One which will forever go unfulfilled. Well, unless I make the cupcake myself with honey and all organic, fair trade, gluten free, non-GMO, kosher ingredients.

107   David9   2012 Jun 3, 9:17am  

Fraud. Fraud. Fraud.

I just don't believe anyone would be this tear down property for $333,000, it was even first listed at $232,000. There is even a post on this site somewhere.

Well, the comps are higher. Multi Bids!

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Encino/17840-Collins-St-91316/home/4088644?utm_medium=email&utm_source=myredfin&utm_campaign=listings_update

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