patrick.net

tatupu70 says

The latest CS index list reflects sales for about ~6 months ago

CS index is only 2 month old, not 6 month old. On May 30, they released data through Mar 29. Since high season starts after Super Bowl, the C-S index showed 2 good month of high-season prices:

http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----

dunnross says

Goran_K says

Pending sales dropped drastically from April to May. That's what happens when you cut inventory artificially.

Why do you think banks dropped the inventory so much? They knew that prices were about to crater, so, they figured, they could take advantage of these stupid investors and sell a little more inventory (albeit very little) at over-inflated prices. Once the current pool of fools dries up (and there are less and less of them by the hour), it's Willy Coyote time, again!

If the banks sold all the shadow inventory to all the housing bears in waiting at 10 cents on the dollar how would this help our current situtation? What would really change? Those underwater would still be underwater and there would be zero inventory rather than the slow trickle we have now.

BoomAndBustCycle says

If the banks sold all the shadow inventory to all the housing bears in waiting at 10 cents on the dollar how would this help our current situtation?

It would help the economy recover much faster, that's for sure. In fact, if the FED didn't liquidate mark-to-market, bail out all those deadbeat banks, and kept interest rates artificially low, we would be enjoying a real recovery right now. Prices would be 80% lower, but sales would be back to their normal levels. Instead, we have an 80% drop in sales and only a 20% drop in prices (so far) and Japan-style multi-decade decline. You decide which one is better.

dunnross says

CS index is only 2 month old, not 6 month old. On May 30, they released data through Mar 29. Since high season starts after Super Bowl, the C-S index showed 2 good month of high-season prices:

Subtract out the time between offer accepted and closing date (another ~6 weeks) and realize that CS is a 3 month average so you've still got sales from November in there..

I stand by my statement.

dunnross says

It would help the economy recover much faster, that's for sure. In fact, if the FED didn't liquidate mark-to-market, bail out all those deadbeat banks, and kept interest rates artificially low, we would be enjoying a real recovery right now. Prices would be 80% lower, but sales would be back to their normal levels. Instead, we have an 80% drop in sales and only a 20% drop in prices (so far) and Japan-style multi-decade decline. You decide which one is better.

This.

Right now the U.S major banks are zombies that are cannibalizing the U.S economy. If we just "liquidate" the infection (bad assets), we can take the short term shock, but steadily return to normal much quicker than Japan which still has a very weak housing market over two decades later.

Boom/Dunross-

Please don't qoute Goran_K. I have him on ignore because he pretends to be above the whole bull vs. bear debate, but really is just a permabear in disguise. And I don't want to see his drivel anymore.

thanks in advance

BoomAndBustCycle says

So, rolling back home prices will lead to less inventory because 1996-2002 buyers now won't have enough equity to sell their homes. It's a catch-22, renters want/need lower home prices, buyers can't AFFORD to sell at lower prices.

No you become the poster child of the RE bubble for many others to remind them of your mistake... therefore they wont in anyway overpay like you did. Eventually the owners will sell, take a loss to get rid of their own low savings rate.