patrick.net

Yes "big" is the problem. Small desert communities can do quite well given the water resources available.

Problem is Arizona took the exurb to hellish extremes in hellholes.

A vast outward migration and total collapse in house prices are in its future.

Don't forget Arizona's ace in the hole strategy for water:

Wow that’s awesome! Roberto practices what he preaches, he has HIS OWN DOG working toward a positive water future for his proud state. I SALUTE YOU BOOMBA!>!

As long as they dont run out of beer in AZ prices will hold up fine. Is there a beer drought on the horizon, better monitor this!

"Drought conditions persist or worsen, Colorado River flows have diminished and water storage at Lake Mead drops to levels requiring shortage declarations.

Farmers send their water to cities, drying up land and sending regional economies dependent on agriculture into a tailspin.

Groundwater pumping in excess of that amount replenished naturally has caused overdraft of Arizona’s aquifers, reducing or eliminating river flows and drying up riparian areas, and transforming the land surface through fissuring and subsidence."

http://www.gwresources.com/Documents/publications/gci-arizona_at_the_crossroads.pdf

robertoaribas says

By the way, Arizona sells some of its unused allocation of Colorado river water to California, so when we need more, we'll cut you off. We also sell electricity to California, so maybe we'll cut that off too!

Of course the question is: when will Arizona sell some of it's unused allocation of illegal immigrant labor to California?
Such a policy could come in handy to the "powers that be" (in both states) during elections.

Damn I'll vote for you. But you gotta get my boy Ron Paul onboard as VP!

duckhead says

WATER???? Why is this in the Real Estate section please? Real Estate is land not water, duh. Anyway what does running out of water have to do with house prices.? DOOMERS ARE RIDICULOUS>>!

Really? Aside from an asteroid impact, or the once-every-800-million-years Yellowstone Mega-Earthquake...I cannot imagine a more devastating event for a population center to endure than running out of water.

For christ's sake, it's the #2 most vital resource humans consume, behind only air (oxygen). Which is also the reason that for the majority of human history, before we'd mastered terraforming and advanced engineering, humans avoided living in climates like Phoenix.

It should be plain to see how an area going from 'hospitable' to 'inhospitable' might have a negative effect on property values.

Schizlor says

duckhead says

WATER???? Why is this in the Real Estate section please? Real Estate is land not water, duh. Anyway what does running out of water have to do with house prices.? DOOMERS ARE RIDICULOUS>>!

Really? Aside from an asteroid impact, or the once-every-800-million-years Yellowstone Mega-Earthquake...I cannot imagine a more devastating event for a population center to endure than running out of water.

For christ's sake, it's the #2 most vital resource humans consume, behind only air (oxygen). Which is also the reason that for the majority of human history, before we'd mastered terraforming and advanced engineering, humans avoided living in climates like Phoenix.

It should be plain to see how an area going from 'hospitable' to 'inhospitable' might have a negative effect on property values.

I think he was being sarcastic.

Schizlor says

It should be plain to see how an area going from 'hospitable' to 'inhospitable' might have a negative effect on property values.

Who there Negative Nellie.

Look on the bright side, that's how we get deserted cities in the desert for future generations to study. Oh wait, the Mayans built with stone, the Pueblo built cliff-dwellings with stone, well surely those Arizona retirement burbclaves are built of sturdy stuff that will be standing in 500+ years right?

I say melt the icecaps, problem solved.

robertoaribas says

The cities are hardly a problem at all, and for now, our water expense is very small. If water gets expensive, people will get rid of their grass, start covering their pools, using gray water for irrigation etc.

Yes not a problem now but in the next 40 years the impact is going to be significant. You may be underestimating Arizonans future access to fresh water. There will probably not be many swimming pools let alone covered pools.

http://www.nrdc.org/water/readiness/files/water-readiness-AZ.pdf

Decreases in streamflow also could lead to reductions in hydropower generation, water quality issues as pollutant concentrations and salinity increase, and reductions in fish and wildlife habitat.
Winter and spring flooding risks could increase as a result of more wintertime precipitation occurring as rain and faster springtime snowmelt. Conversely, decreased late-spring and summer runoff could cause decreased groundwater aquifer recharge and impact areas that rely heavily on groundwater supplies. Any impacts to water availability as a result of climate change would have significant ramifications for the agricultural, urban, industrial, and environmental users that rely on them. A recent study by researchers at Sandia National Laboratories estimated that reduced water availability associated with climate change could cost Arizona close to $70 billion in GDP and more than 480,000 jobs by 2050.

Also, Arizona is not doing a great job in planning for this future, but at least they are not drafting legislation that requires people to ignore climate science.
http://current.com/entertainment/comedy/93796586_colbert-report-on-north-carolina-bill-to-make-climate-science-illegal.htm

CaptainShuddup says

I say melt the icecaps, problem solved.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/svKq044qrYU

robertoaribas says

BUT as a real estate investor, you actually expect me to factor in 40 years from now water scenarios? I'll be almost 90! My purchases will have paid me back every penny I put into them in 10 years tops on rental income alone! I'm reasonably sure Phoenix can survive the next decade!

Yep, point taken. However, the decline will probably be gradual and I would not plan on any income from Arizona real estate during my retirement.

robertoaribas says

Plus, examine technology today compared to 40 year old technology. I'd like to think we will have an entirely different water system by then!

Maybe, but what technology are we talking about? Sure, consumer electronics has exploded over the last 40 years. When was the last big advancement in agriculture that allowed for a huge increase in production? (HINT: it has to do with nitrogen and happened over 100 years ago)

Technology used to get clean water to your mouth also has changed very little over the last 40 or even 100 years and advancements (like desalinization) to get more potable water require huge amounts of energy.

While it is possible that some ultra-cheap system of teleporting only the clean parts of sea water directly to your home is invented, I am not going to hold my breath.

In the future AZ will be a desert!

I can see in my mind what it might look like... sand, cactus, and small shrubs for miles in all directions everywhere around phoenix! the horror.

robertoaribas says

Phoenix cut easily cut its water usage in half by even modest reductions in waste: grass yards, uncovered pools, allowing flood irrigation in older neighborhoods... NOT to mention the huge amount that goes into cotton fields...

...a sepererate water loop on a home to recycle shower water would cut usage down another 20% per household.

I am sure when they do their projections they take none of this into account.

robertoaribas says

It doesn't take expensive water desalinization

True, but for desalinization to even be an option you first need access to a large amount of salt water.

robertoaribas says

Seems to me Southern California is the place that is always putting water restrictions in place...

Yes, Southern California is also going to have great fresh water difficulties due to climate change.

Funny thing is that even without climate change we are consuming fresh water faster than it is "created". Aquifers all over are being drained. Actually the good news for Arizona is that seasonal rains may increase -- helping to charge the aquifer at a greater rate than it is currently. The problem is that the overall input of new fresh water into the lower Colorado river basin is going to probably reduce.

robertoaribas says

that is flat out ridiculous.

Actually what is going to be ridiculous is you at 90 wearing a stillsuit in the Arizona heat...

PockyClipsNow says

In the future AZ will be a desert!

In the future?

wthrfrk80 says

Who exactly decided it would be a good idea to build big cities in deserts? I don't understand the attraction. Is it the sunshine? The lack of humidity? The scorpions?

Since it's land that sucks for farming, why not use it for residential usage and just bring in water from someplace else? It's not like you can't run a pipe ot the Great Lakes or use the vast desert for solar desalinization.

leoj707 says

Maybe, but what technology are we talking about? Sure, consumer electronics has exploded over the last 40 years. When was the last big advancement in agriculture that allowed for a huge increase in production? (HINT: it has to do with nitrogen and happened over 100 years ago)

I'd say drip irrigation but then I read this:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2008/11/farming-with-dr.html

zzyzzx says

Since it's land that sucks for framing, why not use it for residential usage and just bring in water from someplace else?

If it sucks for framing, how are you going to BUILD houses? Or did you mean farming?

I moved away from Phx about five years ago. Check out the water marks on the Hoover Dam. I remember talking to a lady who ran a gas station somewhere between Vegas & Phoenix - the water table was dropping and her well had failed.

Cotton farmers in AZ have lost some of their water to the cities. Rightfully so, IMO. That's an idiotic crop to grow in a water-scarce environment.

Interesting no one mentioned the golf courses. I remember scoffing at the pleas for citizens to curb their water usage - golf courses dwarf residential water use.

Also, Palo Verde reactors were using effluent water for their cooling back in the 90's. I think they started losing out as cities wanted to recycle the water for their own use.

Man, the Phoenix water tastes nasty...

"I'd say drip irrigation but then I read this:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2008/11/farming-with-dr.html"

That is an idiotic article: "While drip irrigation can require half the water that flood irrigation does, plants absorb more water with drip, crop yield increases and more water is lost to evapotranspiration. Because drip is more efficient, there is also less overflow to seep back into aquifers or wash into nearby streams or rivers.

That means less water for downstream users and future generations dependent on the aquifers. "

So he's arguing it wastes water because it doesn't use too much water???

chris3637 says

Interesting no one mentioned the golf courses. I remember scoffing at the pleas for citizens to curb their water usage - golf courses dwarf residential water use.

Are you suprised that the 'little people' have to sacrifice but the rich people don't?

chris3637 says

So he's arguing it wastes water because it doesn't use too much water???

He's probably being paid by an interested party to say it.

He is pointing out a well accepted principal of water use. The amount of water passing through a system is irrelevant. The amount of water removed from the system is important.

So, the 'water use' of the Hoover Damn should be the amount that is evaporated from the reservoir, not the amount that passes through a turbine.

The 'water use' of the farm is the net amount removed from the water source. Drip irrigation systems increase the net water use per acre. They do this through increasing yield, so water use per unit product is not increased.

"The amount of water passing through a system is irrelevant. "

Interesting. I guess your water isn't metered, or is free?

If I have a 5 gal. bucket full of water & use it all , does quibbling about how I used it fill the bucket again? LOL

if i have a five gallon bucket and i pour the water into another 5 gallon bucket, then pour it back into the first bucket, have i used any water?

YesYNot,

Where can I get another bucket? Forget it. I would still have an empty bucket.

Hey You. Are you serious? Did you read the article?

YesYNot says

The 'water use' of the farm is the net amount removed from the water source. Drip irrigation systems increase the net water use per acre. They do this through increasing yield, so water use per unit product is not increased.

Either way, who's bright idea was it to do farming in a friggin desert?

^They started when they found a big underground aquifer in 1903. Probably someone back then. It really wasn't a bad idea at the time. I'm sure that they will do less and less as they run out of water.

Roberto has a point that the farming will be cut before the cost to residents is driven sky high.

YesYNot,

I can't read. Sorry you missed the symbolism that Arizona might be looking at an empty bucket.

They already cut water to Imperial county farmers and routed it to San Diego residents. Though I wonder why they can't build a pipeline from say WA and/or OR and bring it down here. MS and LA too have surplus water-they could route it to TX-that is reeling under a drought.

Oops-I guess public works/big govt??

HEY YOU says

I can't read. Sorry you missed the symbolism that Arizona might be looking at an empty bucket.

OK, I guess I still am not sure exactly what you were talking about, but that is fine.

“the Southwest must cut its water use by about SIXTY percent to bring water supplies into balance, given projections of longer, deeper droughts in the decades ahead”

http://www.paysonroundup.com/news/2012/sep/21/studies-show-southwest-faces-water-shortage/

WAH WAH WAH doomers QQQing about everything? Listen up!! Take the time you post all this water stuff in the LAND (real estate duh) section and instead spend it FANTASIZING about your future riches from buying as many houses as you can and renting them out to idiots you will be rich in no time. You gotta trust the duck on this one, it’s a can’t miss strategy! CHOOBACHOOBACHOO (Also Patrick please delete this thread it is Liable!)

"Increased groundwater pumping to support population growth in south-central Arizona (including the Tucson and Phoenix areas) has resulted in water-level declines of between 300 and 500 feet in much of the area."

http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/gwdepletion.html