patrick.net

1) Obama wins comfortably, loses some battlegroud states like Florida and Ohio around 290's - 240's.

1a) lower house R. maintains confortable lead, that's all it matters
1b) Will be slight gain at most. 52/48. that's all it matters.

2) The market will do what it has recently. Summer doldrums followed by year-end and new year rally again. +5-10% YOY.

3) No chance housing wil collapse (which I presume to mean -10% YOY. At worst, it will be a flat market or slightly lower.

4) Apple killed Nokia and RIMM, GRMN is next.

1-4: We're Screwed.

1) Obama wins comfortably, both in the College and in popular vote (I like 5% in the popular)
a) Big sweep in the house but Dems fail to retake the majority
b) Senate adds one or two to Democratic majority

2) DJI closes above 13 by EOY, with steady increases overall through 2013. Hits 14k

3) Housing falls more overall. Bay Area, including SF drops at least 5%

4) Unemployment falls to 7 and change by EOY, continues fall in 2013.

5) AAPL hits $700 by eoy

6) Oil prices drop in the next quarter

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

12. NAR announced it's never been a better time to buy or sell a house.

Tell us something we don't know!!

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

You agree the other 11 predictions are reasonable propositions?

Of course. It's not a question of "if" but "when"! :)

SFace says

1) Obama wins comfortably, loses some battlegroud states like Florida and Ohio around 290's - 240's.

1a) lower house R. maintains confortable lead, that's all it matters

1b) Will be slight gain at most. 52/48. that's all it matters.

2) The market will do what it has recently. Summer doldrums followed by year-end and new year rally again. +5-10% YOY.

3) No chance housing wil collapse (which I presume to mean -10% YOY. At worst, it will be a flat market or slightly lower.

4) Apple killed Nokia and RIMM, GRMN is next.

Statistics without informed context are usually worthless, easily manipulated and often misleading.

Garman's existence is assured because of general aviation. They aren't just in the business of making stuff that's sold at Best Buy. Stick your head inside most any Cessna, Piper (new and old) or Beechcraft and you'll see Garman avionics and radio gear.

He's leading in the polls in Ohio. And the thing about those rules, is that they only apply until they're updated, modified or reexamined. A lot has changed since 1960, electorally and otherwise.

CL says

He's leading in the polls in Ohio. And the thing about those rules, is that they only apply until they're updated, modified or reexamined. A lot has changed since 1960, electorally and otherwise.

OK...well, I know the area and that doesn't make sense. He'll carry Cuyahoga and Summit counties for sure (if Mondale and Dukakis carried them, Obama sure as hell will) but Franklin and Hamilton are very unlikely and that's where the action is.

Out of sixteen districts, Ohio will only have three Democrats in its entire House delegation in the next Congress. Why? The 2010 elections and then reapportionment/redistricting. You and I know that won't last forever but for that trend to not continue in 2012 (especially considering that Ohio is, due to its demographics, Tea Party fucking central) does not make sense. It will continue. It may intensify.

And...if THAT is the state Obama is banking on to get him a second term (just as Kerry was hoping he would win it in 2004 and nearly did), I'll just say the odds are against it.

This just popped up:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/brad-pitts-mother-pens-anti-345647

I don't give two shits about Brad Pitt or his wife or his mother but my point is that Ohio (and Pennsylvania for that matter, excepting the area around Philadelphia) is highly predominated with people like his mother...and they VOTE. They determine races there and for that reason I don't think Obama can win Ohio this year.

rootvg says

Obama can't win without Ohio and Florida. If he doesn't win them it's game over.

Ohio has not failed to predict a presidential race since 1960 and this year will be no different. Why do you think he's spending so much time there?

Obama really only needs to win Ohio or Florida. But I do agree that who ever wins Ohio will probably win the election.