patrick.net

freak80 says

It's pretty much the complete opposite of the CA RE situation.

Well, Cali has got these main issues ... the greater SoCal Area: LA to San Diego or Bay Area: SF to SV areas are too far from their respective low costs countrysides. Thus, it's basically not really possible to live in, let's say San Bernadino or the Central Valley, and work in LA.

My location allows me access to CT, Rte 495/outer Boston, & parts of RI, without needing to rent a crash pad sublet, for work itself, though for Boston & Providence, I do expense sublets during my stints there, from Mon to Thurs, to minimize commuting times.

I suspect that many of my former Bostonian colleagues, once they get the whack, will be renting rooms in their homes to folks like me, so that they don't get foreclosed on.

freak80 says

Yes, If I did that I'd be "renting", i.e. paying interest to my bank. But if I can get a lot more house renting from a bank compared to renting from a landlord, why not?

The thing here is that even if you lose your job., you can move to let's say Boston, split an apartment with a student, and still pay off your upstate NY mortgage, metro Boston rent [for whatever time your job lasts], and save money for retirement. When you retire, you'll have a nice home in NY state with money in the bank.

Rin says

freak80 says

What if Corning, Inc. goes to Texas or Mexico?

I think we've already seen this situation with Buffalo, which has lost nearly a million residents, since the early 70s.

An $90K home there, back in the 80s, is around the same today.

Thus, if the Buffalo housing range is $85K to $120K, I don't see a big deal in losing in ranges like that vs never being able to move for work, esp when one plunks down $700K to be in a nice town, next to Boston but then sees his entire sector (see Mutual Funds or Telecom), get sent to the Texas Triangle. And yes, many of the big companies have been leaving the northeast for the lower costs of living states.

Remember what Delaware Avenue was like in 1900? And look at it now.

Rin says

The thing here is that even if you lose your job, you can move to let's say Boston, split an apartment with a student, and still pay off your upstate NY mortgage

Hmmm...good point. But why Boston? Too expensive!!

Of course I'd need to pay someone to maintain the place.

Hey Roberto, do you have a private jet?

freak80 says

Hmmm...good point. But why Boston? Too expensive!!

Well, you can sub Boston for Chicago, Metro NYC, DC, or any other high priced town/city, where there may be better paying jobs but where it isn't worth, buying into the mania of the locals, just to be upside down on your home, when your job gets sent to Texas or Manila.

Rin says

Well, you can sub Boston for Chicago, Metro NYC, DC, or any other high priced town/city, where there may be better paying jobs

I'm a mechanical engineer working in the energy sector, so there's always Houston. Dirt cheap there thanks to lack of environmentalists & related land-use restrictions. I'd move there in a heartbeat except I have family in the Northeast. And there's not much scenery down there.

Reader says

Remember what Delaware Avenue was like in 1900? And look at it now.

Buffalo NY is a perfect example of a casuality of the decline/fall of manufacturing in America. Unlike Mo'town with primarily automobiles, Buffalo had a mix of various manufacturing products and was suppose to be the new city of the 20th to 21th centuries. Well, that vision came to an end, starting in the 60s, but the real slide started in the 70s, when everything went away.

Think about it, in 1970, Buffalo and Boston both had 2 million denizens. Today, Buffalo shrank by a million whereas Boston grew by a million (or two), if you count all the ex-burbs.

All and all, I think that this points a bit to where the highly touted service (or even production) sectors will be headed, when most work can be done either online or in automated, robotic facilities. High priced northeast cities will lose their shine.

freak80 says

so there's always Houston.

The Texas Triangle is my backup plan, if my current hedge fund activities don't get me to retirement in 5-7 years and/or that I don't attend medical school in eastern Europe.

It's really the only high population areas where I'd buy into real estate, as job markets there are viable but like you, I'm a northeast Yankee at heart so I can't see myself in TX, other than as a long term business trip.

War says

Rin says

Buffalo NY is a perfect example

Buffalo demonstrates what happens to ALL cities. If you think some city is immune, you're fooling yourself.

Yes, there's so such thing as immunity, however, I believe Buffalo is a near perfect example of a once great early 20th century development, gone to the dogs at century's end. Realize, Michigan's Detroit is a singular industry town with minimal diversification outside of it, ala Gary Indiana with US Steel Corp. They were poised for an implosion when Japan Inc started selling cars. And when ancient Rome a/o Constantinople fell, they were invaded and overwhelmed by outside forces. No one's invaded the Niagara region since the War of 1812.

Buffalo's decline coincided with the rise of *New* Boston, from a blue collar/old New England city. This was linked to the raise of white collar work in electronics (Teradyne, Digital Equipment Corp, etc), finance/insur (J Hancock, Fidelity, etc), and defense (MITRE, Raytheon, etc). Later, adding biotech and more health care avenues, as the decades progressed. Today, many eastern MA stalwarts are in decline, with a few of the startups, adding much fewer headcount than before. Defense is the last stable industry, however, the headcount is moving to TX.