patrick.net

Yes, the NSF started that shortage myth in '88, where they predicted that come 2000, the nation would be 650K short of S&Es. That never materialized as either professors didn't retire or those positions were turned into postdocs or adjunct roles. In addition, key projects like the supercollidor were cancelled in '94.

The only shortage of S&Es are in them becoming doctors or ancillary heath care professionals. If you want a semi-permanent role in S&E, you need to have security clearance and also, work in low tax states like Texas where much of the in-shoring is going on for defense contractors.

Why would anyone want a permanent role in anything?

Peter P says

want a permanent role in anything?

Because age discrimination kicks in between ages 45 and 55, esp in tech fields.

Many health care professionals, esp doctors, pharmacists, PAs, etc, do not suffer age discrimination in their career sectors.

Rin says

Because age discrimination kicks in between ages 45 and 55, esp in tech fields.

I'm wondering if that's because technology changes so fast. Whereas the human body doesn't.

wthrfrk80 says

Unless you're doing original research or engineering something that is inherently "on site" (like bridge construction), the future of American science and engineering looks pretty bleak. I think the claimed "shortage" of scientists and engineers in America is propaganda.

"On site" is basically all engineering. You seem to be confusing engineers, which span all sorts of fields, with computer science. Not that engineers don't program - most do - but a lot of work can not be easily contracted over seas. A lot of programs need to be written and edited on site.

However, there is a shortage of experienced engineers. Large companies would love to give work visas to bring experience engineers to work in America. Training an engineer takes a lot of time and money; most companies would prefer to contract work...on site of course. Congress has been pushed to make work visas easier to obtain.

Rin says

Because age discrimination kicks in between ages 45 and 55, esp in tech fields.

I actually work for a company that chucks Young applicants resumes in the garbage, as they shake their hand, and thank them for their time.
1995 was the time that youngsters were obsessed with not only learning about technology but excelling. Kids today want to know how to use Facebook not create it. They are more interested in arguing over buzz words they read about in a publication, not showing you an optimized alternative to the current best solution.

I can't find a kid to mentor to save my life, not even on a Bet.
1995 one could have filled a Colosseum with hopeful quick studies.

wthrfrk80 says

Rin says

Because age discrimination kicks in between ages 45 and 55, esp in tech fields.

I'm wondering if that's because technology changes so fast. Whereas the human body doesn't.

It might also have a lot to do with the whole MBA thing, where a lot of incapable management consulting types, with added B-school stripes, tend to run depts and programs and don't want to be challenged by someone older than them.

One of the major challenges in tech industry today is that managers don't have the specific wherewithal to solve technical problems and due to all the lay offs and offshoring, they find themselves running a kingdom of newbies, and thus, only inspire another generation of east Asians to come up with better solutions long term. I'm wondering what those 4K NASA engineers will do, once the axe falls on them in the next few years.

Ruki says

Acute labor shortages are on the horizon and in the tech field it is already there. Being older can actually be an advantage because the kids these days are proving to be very unreliable. The sole exception is younger H1-B foreign imports.

I use to worry that I was going to have to find another career but now I am not as worried.

If I were to stay in the field (since I'm currently transitioning out), I'd take advantage of couple of phenomena. The first is in-shoring and that's that a lot of work is moving to the Texas Triangle, away from higher cost locales, such as Boston to Maryland - NE corridor, and second, that defense & security related work will always be in America, regardless of the number of MBA dolts in the field. The above also helps one develop a career bulwark, if other Asian tigers, i.e. Vietnam, Philippines, etc, do decide to do IT right and provide quality 'value added' work and support in the years ahead, once the original fascination with India dies down. Remember, in the 80s, while the world was watching Japan Inc, it was South Korea and Taiwan, who eventually ate their lunch. I think the offshoring/globalization phenomena is not over yet.

Rin says

Yes, the NSF started that shortage myth in '88, where they predicted that come 2000, the nation would be 650K short of S&Es. That never materialized as either professors didn't retire or those positions were turned into postdocs or adjunct roles. In addition, key projects like the supercollidor were cancelled in '94.

The only shortage of S&Es are in them becoming doctors or ancillary heath care professionals. If you want a semi-permanent role in S&E, you need to have security clearance and also, work in low tax states like Texas where much of the in-shoring is going on for defense contractors.

That and our former cold war foes in the USSR suddenly became available to the US market.

I don't fault the NSF from crying wolf then but I do think it has undermined their creditability to continue the alarm and encourage many thousands of hopeful young people to enter an area that cannot possibly support them . Thanks to the internet the truth has become more visible. It won't be long until the wolf shows up and who will listen to the NSF then?

wthrfrk80 says

I think the claimed "shortage" of scientists and engineers in America is propaganda.

this is what is happening....

hiring managers want the skills of a 45+ year old engineer in a 30 year old...
they will hire a 30 year old today, but are unwilling to hire anyone 40 years or older.

yes.. there is a shortage of well qualified 30 year old engineers.. see above..
but there is no shortage of over 40 year old well seasoned engineers today.

It is very common to see this...it was unthinkable back in 80s and 90s but since the hype especially with google and facebook, you think every dinky 25 year old is some genius ... they are not!

Silicon Valley’s Dark Secret: It’s All About Age

http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/28/silicon-valley%E2%80%99s-dark-secret-it%E2%80%99s-all-about-age/

Rin says

The first is in-shoring and that's that a lot of work is moving to the Texas Triangle, away from higher cost locales, such as Boston to Maryland - NE corridor, and second, that defense & security related work will always be in America, regardless of the number of MBA dolts in the field.

nope.. doesnt work that way.. you simply cannot outsource any IT overseas.. not even production of consumer PC or other equipment.. they could all be ticking time bombs hacked by the chinese military . If not for us, also for many other nations... therefore it makes far more sense to have higher cost, safer, dependable, virus free IT/Consumer products from the USA than China or Vietnam. Made in the USA has greater weigh of trust vs Made in China..

Rin says

I think the offshoring/globalization phenomena is not over yet.

Its one thing to have bank robbers steal a few thousand dollars ... its another when whole systems and accounts worth billions/trillions are but at risk...

the cost benefit isnt swinging favorably for globalization..

thomaswong.1986 says

nope.. doesnt work that way.. you simply cannot outsource any IT overseas.. not even production of consumer PC or other equipment.. they could all be ticking time bombs hacked by the chinese military

Well Thomas, let's wait and see. Remember, it's not you or me making the big decisions but idiot management consultants. In the meantime, however, moving to Texas may be a good career move for those in tech, regardless of how the global playing field works out, in the years ahead.

thomaswong.1986 says

the cost benefit isnt swinging favorably for globalization..

From the other thread (Half of Recent College Grads Under/Un-employed)...

The reason why that 1st round of IT offshoring failed (2001 to 2006) was that corporate America, like a herd of lemmings, did exactly the same thing w/o considering the risks. They all poured their collective capitals into turning Bangalore-India Inc, into the next South Korea or Taiwan, but for software instead of firmware. Well, that was a joke as India, being a former commodities player for the British Empire, was never an end-to-end solutions provider. Instead, it was a body shop and that aspect of their business culture hadn't changed since Queen Victoria's time. Naturally, software is a value added service, code by itself, is not a *silk or dye* business and thus, it was destined to fail, circa 2006-2009, just as quickly as it had taken off before then.

Today, other Asian players have woken up and realized that in order to win the big global contracts, they need value-added services, not cheap labor. For instance, recent Filipino call centers have not only been taking calls but have been using bulletin boards and chat rooms to categorize problem tickets, gathering more data from alternate sources, and providing more complete follow-up solutions to customers, using text messages, etc, to add greater value to the customers' business concerns.

So I don't exactly see this trend ending anytime soon as the former India Inc will be replaced by other nations which want to cross the digital divide.

Rin says

So I don't exactly see this trend ending anytime soon as the former India Inc will be replaced by other nations which want to cross the digital divide.

National security! too many hacked products (not just lead in baby food) are coming to our shores. Its not just us (USA) but every other nations systems.. be they Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin American corporate, banking, government, military down to the individuals homes have been hacked.

If you were to trust anyone, better to trust the US than Chinese/Indian any day of the year. It may cost more, but so what, its a trusted source as we always have been.

China tech company brags: We hacked U.S. telecoms

http://www.fourwinds10.net/siterun_data/media/internet/news.php?q=1339792288
June 14, 2012

Electronic 'backdoor' could let outsiders sabotage U.S. systems, sites

WASHINGTON – A major Chinese telecommunications company has been boasting how it was able to hack into U.S. and international telecommunications networks and intercept what it suggested was “malicious” data.

The claim was made at a conference held in Dubai in February by officials with the Chinese firm Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., and left specialists who attended the seminar alarmed.

They told WND that’s because while Huawei may consider the data “malicious,” the act of intercepting and extracting data means the Chinese company also could steal sensitive information or even alter the function of computer systems where the company’s products are installed.

Huawei, which is tied to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, displayed in a PowerPoint-type presentation that it had capabilities in “in-depth traffic analysis to enhance network control,” which a source to WND who attended the conference said meant that it could intercept data and collect it.

thomaswong.1986 says

If you were to trust anyone, better to trust the US than Chinese/Indian any day of the year.

You talk about Asia as if that means India/China, you do realize that there are other countries from Japan to Indonesia to the near east?

The whole India vis-a-vis China is the Japan scare card, all over again, but re-vamped for a new generation. When Japan's economic bubble imploded, now over 2 decades ago, hardware didn't magically re-locate to the US. No, it just moved on to Korea and Taiwan.

Likewise, with all of the world (sans India, sans China) also wanting to be players in the software world, the US MBA crowd still has plenty of overseas partners to help develop, test, and support software for them. The only thing which happened with Bangalore's low quality implosion and China's IP theft, was that the rate of globalization has slowed, allowing others to come up in their place. The story isn't over yet; mark my words!

thomaswong.1986 says

National security! too many hacked products

Thus, the rise of Texas, as our in-shoring center for technology, IT, and of course energy/power. If you want to keep your tech work, move there and don't spend time/money in the SF-SD or Boston-DC coastal corridors.

Texas seems to be the last place left in America with any real industry (i.e. economic activity beyond just real-estate, finance, insurance, fast food, and sick-care).

wthrfrk80 says

exas seems to be the last place left in America with any real industry

I don't mean to sound like a broken record but if you're a tech worker, move to TX ASAP, and work your way to a VP, Director, or Senior/Top-level Engineering job. It may be the best career decision of your life. If you delay in this, other younger kids will take this path and then, you'll also be facing more competition down the road. Right now, I get recruiters (& friends) from Houston & Dallas calling me regularly. Sorry, forgot about Austin & San Antonio, as both of those towns are also huge for IT. I knew a couple, worked hard in Boston, never had enough money for a house ... moved to Austin, bought a house in cash, and now, have nothing but savings accruing.

Rin says

The story isn't over yet; mark my words!

Yes. i do understand.. i been in Tech industry for 3 decades, going on to 4.

Rin says

It may be the best career decision of your life.

Maybe, but everyone already knows this. Following the herd is rarely a good idea.

Rin says

If you delay in this, other younger kids will take this path and then, you'll also be facing more competition down the road.

Buy now or be priced out forever! ;-)

wthrfrk80 says

Maybe, but everyone already knows this. Following the herd is rarely a good idea.

Can always move back. This is America, after all, and trying a new city (unless it's Detroit) never hurts :-)

Rin says

Can always move back. This is America, after all, and trying a new city (unless it's Detroit) never hurts :-)

and in some cases they come to you.. since we saw plenty of Texas based tech companies acquiring SV companies for some time now.. Dell and Texas Instruments come to mind. I dont know how long they will stick around. The Japanese and Europeans certainly left town after a few years of buying up the Semi companies.

The thing about Texas is that normal houses there, go from under $200K to $350K. Compared to Boston, New York, Chicago, SF, LA, etc, that's a staggeringly low price but in comparing job positions, between Boston and Dallas, I've found salary differences of only 15% for the top tier categories. So a senior systems/performance consultant, earning ~$110K in Boston, he can find a similar position for Dallas at ~$90K. In Boston, however, that house would go for $600K whereas in Dallas, it would be $220K.

Rin says

The thing about Texas is that normal houses there, go from under $200K to $350K. Compared to Boston, New York, Chicago, SF, LA, etc, that's a staggeringly low price but in comparing job positions, between Boston and Dallas, I've found salary differences of only 15% for the top tier categories.

Absolutely. That's why I have considered moving to Houston because of the ratio of good-paying engineering jobs relative to house prices. But family is in the Pittsburgh, PA area. And the scenery is nicer here. Not having winter would be nice though. Decisions decisions.

HRHMedia says

CaptainShuddup says

I actually work

CaptainShuddup says

I can't find a kid to mentor to save my life,

CaptainShuddup says

I actually work for a company that chucks Young applicants resumes in the garbag

Social Media Guru Since 1999

Cut the Crap Aladdin.

wthrfrk80 says

not having winter would be nice though

If you can handle continuous high humidity/hot temp weather, then Houston's the place. Normally for me, tropical climates take about 3+ weeks to adapt to. What you save in housing costs can easily be applied towards your AC bill :-)

Rin says

wthrfrk80 says

exas seems to be the last place left in America with any real industry

I don't mean to sound like a broken record but if you're a tech worker, move to TX ASAP, and work your way to a VP, Director, or Senior/Top-level Engineering job. It may be the best career decision of your life. If you delay in this, other younger kids will take this path and then, you'll also be facing more competition down the road. Right now, I get recruiters (& friends) from Houston & Dallas calling me regularly. Sorry, forgot about Austin & San Antonio, as both of those towns are also huge for IT. I knew a couple, worked hard in Boston, never had enough money for a house ... moved to Austin, bought a house in cash, and now, have nothing but savings accruing.

yes, please everyone move to Texas. Don't even consider the SF Bay Area -- it's terrible here. A veritable hell on earth. You'll be much better in Texas or Virginia or Atlanta or Sophia Antipoles. Run, don't walk...

I cannot stand the heat nor the humidity. Otherwise Texas would be a great place for me.

My "ideal" temperature is 59F year round. The climate of the Bay Area is quite close to that. (It is 64F outside right now.)

BTW, software cannot be reduced to equations because you still need to know what to build. You can have the best code but it will still be useless if you really wanted something else.

There is a huge cultural component to software development.

Randy H says

Don't even consider the SF Bay Area -- it's terrible here. A veritable hell on earth.

SF is even more expensive than Boston. Yes, that's CoL hell on earth & the view of the Bay isn't enough for one to get price gouged, as badly as that. Next, aside from the lack of wintery snowstorms, does SF really have more to offer than any municipality in the northeast corridor? I mean if you want liberals around here, we have our Amherst or Northampton MA. And much of the New York/New England region is quite green and pleasant, overall, and houses in upstate NY go for $100K (sometimes less) and that's within an hour from either Montreal Canada or Burlington VT.

Weather-wise, if you can only afford to live at one location, SFBA is really hard to beat.

Peter P says

Weather-wise, if you can only afford to live at one location, SFBA is really hard to beat.

It's good to have a giant thermal mass just to the west!

wthrfrk80 says

Peter P says

Weather-wise, if you can only afford to live at one location, SFBA is really hard to beat.

It's good to have a giant thermal mass just to the west!

Somehow it is slightly more effective than having a thermal mass just to the east. :-)

Anyway, with climate change and all perhaps Iqaluit will become the new haven.

Peter P says

Somehow it is slightly more effective than having a thermal mass just to the east. :-)

A lot more effective, since weather systems move from west to east! Where I live, it's either the Canadians dumping their crappy frigid air on us in the winter or the Texans sending us their overheated air in the summer.

Ruki says

Being older can actually be an advantage because the kids these days are proving to be very unreliable. The sole exception is younger H1-B foreign imports.

H1-B 'imports' are only popular because they don't come with the student loan debt and thus don't require a salary that would allow them to pay that off and eat. Employers in tech know they can't keep younger workers as the most dedicated want to start their own company and nobody wants to train tomorrow's competitor. Older workers with appropriate skills and experience have the advantage for this reason, not because of some libertarian think tank myth of the lazy American worker.

CaptainShuddup says

I can't find a kid to mentor to save my life, not even on a Bet.

I can't either. It amazes me. I wished my whole life to have a mentor, never found a willing one, so had to chart my own course...the hard way naturally. Now I want to give back, to give away what I always wished for but have been totally unsuccessful in doing so. I am rather kind, patient, smart and successful by most common objective measures and love to teach to boot....ideal traits of a good mentor. You can lead a horse to water but can't make them drink comes to mind....

Randy H says

yes, please everyone move to Texas. Don't even consider the SF Bay Area -- it's terrible here. A veritable hell on earth. You'll be much better in Texas or Virginia or Atlanta or Sophia Antipoles. Run, don't walk...

hahahahahahaha...good idea.

wthrfrk80 says

Rin says

Because age discrimination kicks in between ages 45 and 55, esp in tech fields.

I'm wondering if that's because technology changes so fast. Whereas the human body doesn't.

A lot of technical positions are ultimately skill or aptitude based not knowledge based which leaves salary and dominance as real issues.

For example, there's a lot of evidence suggesting that the abilities to understand indirection, parallelism, and recursion are inherent aptitudes for software people.

Computer science departments attempts to teach them often fail and I wouldn't hire some one (even an intern) who didn't grasp them.

While practitioners need to know certain technologies, they're generally similar enough to what you already know that you can pick them up very quickly. Microsoft hired me to write C# which I'd never done before and it wasn't a big deal.

Demarco and Lister note in _Peopleware Productive Projects and Teams_ that in their coding war games

People who had ten years of experience did not outperform those with two years of experience. There was no correlation between experience and performance except that those with less than six months' experience with the language used in the exercise did not do as well as the rest of the sample

Compensation packages for fresh computer science graduates at the big Silicon Valley companies are somewhat north of $100K. A good engineer with 15+ years of experience can gross over double that at the same sort of company.

The extra money can buy you experience that delivers higher quality products in less time with the savings more than covering the cost delta - some of it personal and some second hand via people the individual in question has worked with ( I picked up a few things on reliability from having RAID inventor Dave Patterson as a technical advisor ) although such an individual with leadership skills can also multiply the efforts of a dozen less experienced people producing very similar results to what you'd get from a dozen experienced people for half the money.

Second rate managers and individual contributors don't want to look bad in comparison and prefer the malleability of younger subordinates with less worldly experience.