patrick.net

Wow he thought Bay Area prices were in a bubble in 2012? I hope he didn't slit his wrists.

Leo,

I believe this house has a very good chance of going up to $900k - $950k in the next 3 to 4 years. It might have to wait until the next cycle before hitting $1M+. If you are in tech and you don't see the dynamic to drive prices higher, I'm not sure what to say. There are still a lot of multi-billion dollar companies in the Bay Area that haven't gone public yet.

Well, you missed it at $550k, at $650k, and now it's about $800k. That was an opportunity once in a lifetime. However, you're not the only one missing it so you're in good company. What I keep on hearing from people is that "the housing market in the Bay Area never stop amazes me" so you're not alone.

Good luck.

E-man says

Leo,

I believe this house has a very good chance of going up to $900k - $950k in the next 3 to 4 years. It might have to wait until the next cycle before hitting $1M+. If you are in tech and you don't see the dynamic to drive prices higher, I'm not sure what to say. There are still a lot of multi-billion dollar companies in the Bay Area that haven't gone public yet.

Well, you missed it at $550k, at $650k, and now it's about $800k. That was an opportunity once in a lifetime. However, you're not the only one missing it so you're in good company. What I keep on hearing from people is that "the housing market in the Bay Area never stop amazes me" so you're not alone.

Good luck.

You may be right. We will see how future unfolds.

Tim Aurora says

thunderlips11 says

I'm not so sure that prices will recover - see Japan.

You are forgetting the dividend aka equivalent rent

Right, but you gotta be a property owner beyond your own place to collect rent, which has to be a well less than half of the population.

Tim Aurora says

I said equivalent rent. So if you rented the property you own, and if the property would rent for X dollars, then count it as equivalent rent,

About 40% of American households aren't homeowners, either.

Japan has the aging problem, but it didn't end up creating jobs or increased wages. Instead Japanese companies outsourced and automated more aggressively, as well as employing more "Flexible" workers - ie Temps.

I hear that hundreds of thousands of young Japanese basically live in internet cafes.

thunderlips11 says

The Great Stagflation was an inflationary cycle, and gold and silver soared.

It didn't exactly soar until the very end.

When the Nixon closed the window, Gold went from $35/oz to $190/oz, from '71 till mid-'78. That was the majority of Gold's bullishness. Basically, it was an inflation tracker for much of the decade, with peaks/valleys.

And then ... suddenly, it went parabolic, from $190/oz to $850/oz by '80. Afterwards, came the crash, however, gold never touched $190/oz, ever again, despite the multi-decade bear market which followed.

leo9 says

I understand many people in bay area earns $200k plus but still it doesn't justify high prices in bay area. If a couple earns $200k plus then most likely they are both working with kids. Everything is expensive in bay area day care, car payment, restaurants, insurance, utility, etc. Where is the money left for mortgage ?

Actually, including RSUs and bonus, more like $500k per year, for folks with 15+ years (those late 30s/ early 40s).

leo9 says

It seem market has slowed a little recently our may be I am hallucinating

True but didn't show up in statistics yet. Foot traffic is considerably less, asking prices are not so aggressive and not as many over-bidding.

E-man says

Well, you missed it at $550k, at $650k, and now it's about $800k. That was an opportunity once in a lifetime.

If you are right, E-man, maybe it is true what realtors say. Maybe I have been priced out forever.