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When do you think the next real estate downturn will occur? Why?


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2012 Jul 28, 12:06pm   52,803 views  109 comments

by hrhjuliet   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

I've been following a lot of very knowledgeable people on Patrick.net for a long time. Patrick.net saved my family from buying during the bubble, so I tend to trust the info he posts. What do the experts on his forum truly believe? When will the next downturn hit? Will it just flat-line, or dive? Why? We live in the Bay Area and the prices still seem suspicious. Do any of you know why? Would you buy here? Thank you.

#housing

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107   thomaswong.1986   2013 Dec 30, 10:10am  

pkennedy says

Businesses are already paying an arm and leg to do business in the bay area, or downtown SF, they're doing it for a simple reason -- the best talent is here, and with that, the best talent is always in contact with more of the best talent, bouncing off ideas and becoming better.

How do you explain why SV companies employ more outside CA than Santa Clara County... Just like GE, United Technology, or any other companies... Locations are no longer limited to one region. What you said, was only true during the 70s and 80s.... it stopped in the 90s as SV companies expanded far more in other states.

If your a head of operations, paying arm and leg will get you fired for being financial irresponsible.
these people are looking at margins and bottom line returns ... not what some Landlord or Realtor has some delusions about.

Just look at any Career page for a SV company... its pretty obvious.

108   thomaswong.1986   2013 Dec 30, 10:17am  

hrhjuliet says

Thank you, but I own a home in the Bay Area, and if we would curb foreign investors and invest in our own country and community then we would all have a better quality of life. I find it disturbing that almost every hard working family I know of in the Valley has no hope of owning in this grossly inflated market and are paying outrageous rental costs. It is sickening,

Huckers and Scammers have come to the valley and twisted our economic success for their own benefit... there are not interested in any balance in this market. Ask your local realtor how long they been here ?

109   Heraclitusstudent   2013 Dec 30, 11:11pm  

pkennedy says

Housing is simply following inflation, and inflation in the bay area runs higher than the country side, like all big cities. That's why e-man said that housing will get more expensive after each cycle -- it will

Inflation is a national statistic and there is no evidence that prices increase faster in the bay area - except housing.

But housing prices have increased faster than inflation nation wide since the 80's. People who think this is a normal and permanent trend don't make any sense. Wages are increasing slower than inflation, but housing will permanently increase faster? This doesn't make sense. What we are seeing is an historical anomaly due to macro trends, that will change eventually. In this context, a 2 years jump in prices means absolutely nothing.

People who think the bay area is so rich that housing can permanently stay at prices that are now above the top of the housing bubble, are suffering from short term bias. The region is simply under the money tap. It is disproportionally impacted by larger policies. And this too will change in time.

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