patrick.net

B.A.C.A.H. says

Like for instance, you spared us all the gory details about how you are so much smarter and savvy than others from your Marin County Conquest.

Details are overrated. Outthinking the Marin set is hardly a badge of honor. I don't like to generalize, but people here are "special". I'm happy to be finally escaping.

Perhaps I'll chronicle my escape from Marin as an example of my intelligence and savvy some day.

...I just think Rob likes to get people going and chumps like Goran take the bait.

Goran_K says

You claimed to have a PhD in mathematics, but you certainly don't act like someone with an advanced degree, at least not like the people I went to business school with.

Yes, and look like one, even less so:

dunnross says

Yes, and look like one, even less so:

Actually, I've had gruffy looking professors that probably exceed Robert's gruffiness (is that a word?) by a bit.

robertoaribas says

really? you post that I have no friends, never had a girlfriend and am bitter at the world, when you know exactly zip about me, then bitch about any insulting words at you? you are joke to everyone!

To be honest, I have never mentioned you by name in an insulting manner or directly attacked you, and even if I did send some back your way, c'mon man, you have been giving it to me and everyone here for dozens of post before hand.

Seriously, relax. Didn't you say you were going to enjoy the mountains?

robertoaribas says

you are joke to everyone!

To me, you sound like a much bigger joke than he is.

Guys, hit 'ignore' and be done with it. Life's too short.

Goran, I think you should quit whilst you are behind.

Chuckle to self; actually in the inverse way, one of the small reasons that added to why I chose my current home is because it DOESN'T appear on Google Street View at all due to a 1/2 mile long driveway and the house not being visible from the street. So I was forced to check out the property in person and I loved what I saw. I did however first check out the neighborhood and also loved what I saw......

B.A.C.A.H. says

Goran,
We cannot really do a good job at much of anything except maybe being an actuary, by being a quant. The quants got us into the mess, John Paulson saw this himself from what he observed on the ground instead of on the spread sheet.
I am not even sure that being a quant is all that it takes to do a good actuarial job. Probably, the data should only be used for benchmarking against a real face to face knowledge of the insured individuals.

I can agree with that, but also, data is data, and it doesn't come from thin air.

Case in point:

1200 sqft
Price: $240,000, which last time I checked is a lot more per sqft than $210,000 at 1400 soft.

The market determines price/value, not google street view, but this argument is tired. I could find 20 homes that look worse than 1159 Carey Drive in neighborhoods with lots of deferred maintenance that are worth 2-3x more (4x more in the case of Cupertino) and these clowns would still say "those buyers over paid", but if they had been the sellers, it would be "the market price."

That's called ignoring data to support an argument, which in any sense, shows that the argument is probably weak or completely unsupported.

It's a pointless exercise anyway. Roberto even tried to support his argument by claiming unemployment went lower from June to July (it actually went up). You can't debate with people who are willing to ignore data, and make up market trends. I have no dog in this game anyway, because I'd never dump money into bottom of the barrel rentals in the ghetto like Carey Drive or the Arizona desert, let alone brag about it on a message board, show my face, and admit to using terms like "assbiter" as a 50+ year old man.

robertoaribas says

once again you are lying, jackass. i said the seasonally adjusted employment rate went up

Really? Is that what you said?

robertoaribas says

since Goran can't figure this out, 175,000 more jobs is 175000 more people that can pay rent...

Oh yeah, I could see where you said "the seasonally adjusted employment rate went up", not that it matters since the overall nationally reported BLS employment rate went down, but thanks for the correction, my mistake.

Goran,

I am in San Jose. I would not presume to know the precise home and neighborhood values for places like Irvine nor Phoenix. Not even for specific addresses in Concord.

Even if they are obnoxious, I am sure they know their locales, and obnoxious as they may type, I have not read that they presume to know the specifics of specific addresses in Irvine and San Jose.

Besides, even if you win an argument with them, you lost because you wasted your time. Blogging should be for fun and entertainment anyway, not to "prove someone wrong".

Data is data. Opinion is simply opinion.

Like when Roberto tried to claim that unemployment was down (when it was up). That isn't about winning or losing, it's simply about truth.

That being said, I have a history in the East Bay, I won't go into personal details, but I know the East Bay very well.

Goran_K says

Data is data. Opinion is simply opinion

And trolls are trolls.

There's no point in having a discussion with Goran. He's a troll.

Well a lot of data is not in the spread sheets but is on the ground.

I know the ground and the streets in my neighborhood and also some nearby places in my region, as I am sure that you know yours and they know theirs.

We can use the spread sheets and the quanting to benchmark the observations about what we see and then help us to understand 'why it is different here' or 'why it is the same here'. The quanting and spread sheets are complementary information ("data") but they are only as good as the "models" and "assumptions" and do not accurately describe (nor predict) individual cases. Besides, spreadsheets and models never predict, they only describe what has already happened. People predict when they extrapolate the trends in the spreadsheets and models.

Nobody doubted here that you may be an expert on Irvine. Even if we're not bragging nor using epithets, we also are not experts on Phoenix and Concord.

I have nothing to admit to be wrong or right about. That wasn't my point or intention.

I've simply presented data, data which supports a theory. For instance, I say the circumference of the Earth has been measured at 24,901.55 miles. Then you come along and say, "Admit you're wrong!"

That doesn't make much sense.

If you want, you can try and prove the data wrong, or fraudulent, or inaccurate. But this isn't a debate about an opinion, which is why your question doesn't really seem to apply in this instance.

Goran_K says

I have nothing to admit to be wrong or right about. That wasn't my point or intention.

I've simply presented data, data which supports a theory. If you want, you can try and prove the data wrong, or fraudulent, or inaccurate. But this isn't a debate about an opinion, which is why your question doesn't really make sense.

They've already demonstrated that you were wrong. You're simply too pig-headed or disingenuous to admit it.

Bigsby says

They've already demonstrated that you were wrong.

Wrong about what?

Goran_K says

Wrong about what?

Ha! You have to be joking. I see why you piss them off so much.

I checked out of this when Goran went ad hominem on me simply for pointing out he was wrong about calculating cash flow. Apparently that landed me a label of being an official "real estate booster".

Again, life's too short to argue with whack-a-moles. I learned that lesson the hard way some years back here on p.net.

Goran,

you downloading photos of people's houses hundreds of miles away from your neighborhood to prove a point?

I hope your job is not drone pilot for the USAF.

B.A.C.A.H. says

I hope your job is not drone pilot for the USAF.

I actually think that would be a fairly cool job.

Why this hunter’s shade need garage door???

E-man says

Let's run the math

Run the math through your Liar Machine?

The TRUTH is that housing prices are falling when defaulted property is considered.

Even if you could rent for $2,500 in that part of EPA, getting tenants who paid rent on time would be very unsure and you would be looking at long vacancy periods between finding tenants. Especially because you can find equivalent rental rates in less dicey parts of San Mateo and Redwood City.

EPA is a speculative market, not one driven by rental cash-flow valuations.

I'm saying you won't get $2500 a month. And if you do, you'll only average that for 8-9 months a year with the rest being average vacancy.

Whatever. Make the same mistake Goran did if you also "just have to be right". I'm telling you that dropping a quarter mil on a POS is East Palo Alto is a sucker's deal. Go for it. Let us know how it works out.

I have a good friend who owns a good number of rentals in south RWC, East PA and San Mateo. It's very common for addresses in East Palo Alto to go vacant for 5-6 months of the year. If you're serious about buying there, I'll put you in touch with him so he can let you know what you're getting into.

Again to be consistent: paying $250K for an EPA property isn't foolish if you're buying for speculative purposes. But it's not a cash flow investment.

Yes, the rental yield is not sufficient to invest in East Palo Alto if you apply an appropriate risk factor (or high enough discount rate).

I don't think a lot of those homes are owner occupied, however, so I think it's really just stickiness plus speculation keeping the prices up. Not hard to believe given that this area is surrounded by mega-pricey SV fortressland.

It's funny when the people who fought tooth and nail with you, actually end up arguing your point for you.

Case closed.

robertoaribas says

You stoop to personal insults, heck you even tried to insult me for "looking almost 50..." which is actually funny, because I am almost 50, and nobody but nobody ever guesses that...

I wasn't insulting you for being 50 and ugly (in all honesty, you're not a bad looking 50 year old). I was trying to show you how silly it is for a 50 year old to call someone a "nitwit" or "assbiter" to try to get their point across, especially someone who claimed to be a lecturer at a major public university. I think if you really thought about it, you would agree that seems very childish and out of character for someone of your age.

Goran_K says

robertoaribas says

You stoop to personal insults, heck you even tried to insult me for "looking almost 50..." which is actually funny, because I am almost 50, and nobody but nobody ever guesses that...

I wasn't insulting you for being 50 and ugly (in all honesty, you're not a bad looking 50 year old). I was trying to show you how silly it is for a 50 year old to call someone a "nitwit" or "assbiter" to try to get their point across, especially someone who claimed to be a lecturer at a major public university. I think if you really thought about it, you would agree that seems very childish and out of character for someone of your age.

Presumably someone of your age is allowed to insinuate all sorts without any comeback.

Bigsby, I'm a very data driven person. If the data suggest something, I don't "insinuate" anything, I simply present a theory or case, and the data. I let the audience decide what it means, or whether they want to believe it. That's why I do the work I do.

For instance, in the Penthouse November 2011 issue, 12% of men polled said that they didn't consider tasting another man's semen a "homosexual" action as long as it was during the act of cunnilingus. Ponder upon that for a second. Your assumptions will not line up with the stated facts, that's why opinion is not a reliable metric in most cases.

and that's the reason people who own those addresses as rentals prefer to let them sit vacant 3-5 months rather than try to hustle it. You'll end up a statistic.

Bigsby says

that you were misrepresenting the data you used

I don't represent data, at all. I simply find the data. You can't represent something that stands by itself like data does.

Goran_K says

Bigsby, I'm a very data driven person. If the data suggest something, I don't "insinuate" anything, I simply present a theory or case, and the data. I let the audience decide what it means, or whether they want to believe it. That's why I do the work I do.

For instance, in the Penthouse November 2011 issue, 12% of men polled said that they didn't consider tasting another man's semen a "homosexual" action as long as it was during the act of cunnilingus. Ponder upon that for a second. Your assumptions will not line up with the stated facts, that's why opinion is not a reliable metric in most cases.

Yes, because everything you said was entirely objective and data driven and had absolutely nothing to do with hating to be proven wrong by someone else.

Bigsby says

Yes, because everything you said was entirely objective and data driven and had absolutely nothing to do with hating to be proven wrong by someone else.

Precisely.

Goran_K says

Bigsby says

that you were misrepresenting the data you used

I don't represent data, at all. I simply find the data. You can't represent something that stands by itself like data does.

You are joking right. You posted a house that had nothing to do with the area under discussion and deliberately tried to mislead readers. That is misrepresenting data.

Goran_K says

Bigsby says

Yes, because everything you said was entirely objective and data driven and had absolutely nothing to do with hating to be proven wrong by someone else.

Precisely.

Then you are deluded because anyone who reads the thread knows that is not what you did.

I have concluded goran is the same troll that's been here for the past 6-7 years under varying handles. Too many coincidental behavioral patterns.

My real question is, what is this meta-moderation thing you guys are talking about which was apparently abandoned? That sounds like a great idea. I'm sure with some tweaking it could work. If it's good enough for /. it's good enough for p.net.