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Yes, this is buying mania public crownd behavior at it's finest. But it's based on the increases they saw in the 5 years before that. And that was based on a lot of buying and demand that was financed with liar loans and low down payment loans and a fraudulant mortgage securities market that was begging lenders to write more morgages.
As for LA or NYC,,,it has become ingrained into their thinking on RE and wealth. As shiller pointed out, the upper end who paid cash also went ape-shit on over paying for RE expecting higher returns. Mortgages were not the issues, its all about prices.
Ryan wants a housing bubble and Mitt wants a bigger one than his dad blew. His dad was stopped by a sovereign USA, but now the banks are sovereign. It is the NWO.
Its pretty well know Mitt wants the RE market without government interference to find its own correction/bottom. He has said it many times over.
What happens when techne replaces labor to the extent that it's no longer possible to employ most or all of the adults except for the 10% who own the production, or service the production directly?
Homo Economicus. A Legendary Creature, like Bigfoot, claimed to exist by Pseudoscientists.
The whole game of efficiency is misguided. Companies reduce the output, even if they are efficient to meet the demand, so that they can make money.
The problem is not so much about robots replacing humans. If robots replace humans in every work, isn't it good? After all, we can use the time to do whatever we want? Yes, it is good: but the problem is we have toll booths (rentiers) that collect toll from everything related to survival: food, shelter, health, etc. Here, a tax policy can be used to euthanize rentiers. The other problem is: even the robbed wanna be a robber! That's the irony. Today, we all complain about rentiers because we are not rentiers: we all believe that we can become rentiers one day, thats why we defend the logic of rentiers. For instance, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Mortgage interest rate reduction, Prop 13 in California, FHA, etc--all these programs/entities increase the cost of living, yet every one wants to keep them!
Read this:
MisdemeanorRebel
2012 Aug 17, 5:22am
This is great reading, thanks Raindoctor.
Then you see a lot of guys on the side of busy streets with a cardboard sign in their hands begging.
Exactly, unless we replace the way society functions.
While I enjoyed RD's link, I have this question
Can't "Efficency", instead of resulting in layoffs, instead translate into shorter hours at the same pay?
Can't "Efficency", instead of resulting in layoffs, instead translate into shorter hours at the same pay?
It aint gonna happen, unless 70 percent of humans understand how modern fiat money system works. A sovereign nation with a sovereign currency (not like those EU members without their own currency) does not fund their spendings by issuing bonds--that has been the reality and the truth. But there are vested interests and the intellectual dishonesty from the intellectuals like Krugman--the latter will subvert everything.
Sensible way of dealing issues.
1. Campaign finance reform
2. Part time politicians (no fulltimers)
3. Stop selling long term treasury notes (why pay interest to the elite when you don't need any long term bonds to fund the sovereign deficits/spending. Short term bond sales are required to target the interest rates)
4. Tax rentiers (non-productive class): real estate/land; non-wages.
50% of US GDP is wages. In mexico, it is 25 percent!! If things go the way they are going now, wages to total GDP ratio will reach that of the third world.
The problem is not with the money, nor with the treasury, nor with the federal reserve. It is those folks, we all wanna become one day: who does not wanna become a billionaire and keep those billions for 20 generations? After all, we entertain those fantasies!
MisdemeanorRebel
2012 Aug 17, 5:56am
I like your thinking. Let me add:
5. 90% inheritance tax
6. Ban Trusts that pay to any individual person more than the Median Wage / year.
7. Tax religious institutions on revenue not spent on charity.
A sovereign nation with a sovereign currency (not like those EU members without their own currency) does not fund their spendings by issuing bonds
Then why are the bonds issued? If America issued currency without the creation of bonds we would pay less interest don't you think? When the treasury sells bonds money is deposited with the treasury. But then we have to pay interest. If we just issued the money without bonds there would be no interest. Lincoln did that with the Greenbacks if I understand it correctly.
Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com
Short term treasury notes are needed to drain reserves from the banking system. The question is: why and when to drain reserves? To target the interest rate. When there is a lack of reservers, Federal reserve open market operations buy the bonds from the banks, to keep the flow going.
Interest rate = cost of money (IOUs).
Long term treasury notes are not needed. It is a free lunch for the wealthy. If long term t notes were to be abandoned, the wealthy would have find a different way to make money, instead of collecting rent on their money (interest).
Long term t-notes sale creates an illusion that deficits are funded by borrowings. Follow the Modern Monetary theory. It gives you a clear picture of everything.
There are two kinds of bond sales: when there are exessive reserves, open market operations drain these reserves. The other one is the illusory one: when treasury wanted to sell bonds for the deficit spending, they use primary dealers to sell them. Later, federal reserves buy the same bonds that primary dealers bought (a simple way of putting). In the same operation, pension funds, ordinary folks like us buy notes from treasury. If you understand how everything works (thats what MMT does), you can cut off this illusory nonsense. Just sell short term notes to target the interest rate; and let the gubmint spend. People think that if you let the gubmint spend, it can create hyperinflation. Nah, it hasn't happened in Japan. Two constraints for gubmint spending: inflation and unemployment.
Inflation occurs for two reasons: when there is a full employment, if the demand is more than the supply--we never had such a situation; private portfolio allocations and rentiers--the purpose of this discussion.
There is a myth, we have all swallowed: deficits are funded by borrowings. A sovereign nation with a sovereign currency doesn't need any borrowing, as long as such a sovereign nation is self-sufficient (as in creating aggregrate demand).
Many countries in Africa don't have a decent aggregate demand. They sell raw materials to other countries and buy clothes, foods, medicine from the latter countries. Even though these african nations are sovereigns with their own soverign currencies, they have to depend on the foreign exchange, since they don't have a circuit of internal production and consumption. The states does not have that problem.
Dems did not have the 60 votes in the senate to pass infrastructure bills. Republicans blocked the programs. Also Obama's stimulus in the beginning was small because they lacked the 60 votes.
Even if dems had 60 votes, they could not have done it. You got folks like Baucus, a pimp from Montana, and other folks. I prefer wolves (repubs) to wolves in sheep clothes (dems). At least the real wolves help bring a change quicker than wolves in sheep clothes. A quicker change--positive or negative--is what we need, so that people can act.
I wrote previously that the housing bubble was a scam from the start, at Basel 2 when they purposely adopted phony risk management in order to sell CDO's with low interest. That allowed the easy money to flow and that pushed up the prices of houses until the hot money left.
Read this post, which deals with basel I, II, III, and capital vs reserve requirements.
MAGA
2012 Aug 17, 8:46am
My daily expenses are minimal compared to my income. My co-workers kid me about this and my very conservative lifestyle. They of course are driving expensive cars and have large credit card balances.
The other one is the illusory one: when treasury wanted to sell bonds for the deficit spending, they use primary dealers to sell them. Later, federal reserves buy the same bonds that primary dealers bought (a simple way of putting).
I think the banks use the money on the spread they get for selling the treasuries to the Fed to gamble in futures markets. They all do it so it isn't much of a gamble, more, a relentless push upward in oil prices.
Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com
They don't need to worry about spread there. Imagine that these banks create a new instrument called 'Carson pass derivatives', CPD for short. That derivate worth is $1M. They sell that to another entity (hedgefund/fellow bank/calpers/norwegian retiree fund, etc). Here, they collect $1M from these entities and the latter get a piece of paper. Here, our issuer bank has taken risk because of this CPD contract. The regulatory framework demands that our issuer bank has to maintain certain capital for the risks they take. Here, they use some kind of weighted average: 0 for treasury notes, the riskier the asset, the weight goes up. This is where our rating agencies come in. They rate this CPD as AAA+; the bank benefits from this rating, as it reduces the capital requirement.
There is another way to reduce capital requirement. Create an off balance sheet vehicle (just like reinsurers in insurance industry). Lets call this fictitious company Ebetts Pass, Inc. Now Ebetts Pass, Inc, buys that CPD risk from our issuer. How does it buy it? By issuing another IOU, whose risk is better than CPD. This trick further reduces the capital requirement.
My daily expenses are minimal compared to my income. My co-workers kid me about this and my very conservative lifestyle. They of course are driving expensive cars and have large credit card balances.
Well, you are bringing down the aggregate demand for the entire economy! They call it a paradox of thrift!!
Anyway, there is a way to protect the aggregate demand. How? of course, by providing safety nets. If there are no safety nets, people stop consuming; if consumption goes down, the production goes down as well. If the production goes down, the wages go down; if the wages down, the consumption goes down! Here, you can provide HELOCs, so that consumption doesn't go down.
Bismarck, an anti-socialist, fought socialists. He is considered to be the father of modern safety nets like social insurance. How come an anti-socialist introduced safety nets? Why anti-socialists of today (say, repubs) wanna gut safety nets like social security? Without safety nets, consumption goes down! That's what happening in China, which produces $8T a year and consumes $1T a year.
Safety nets are necessary for capitalism to thrive!
Those who are trying to gut safety nets are killing their golden goose!
Anyway, there is a way to protect the aggregate demand. How? of course, by providing safety nets. If there are no safety nets, people stop consuming; if consumption goes down, the production goes down as well. If the production goes down, the wages go down; if the wages down, the consumption goes down! Here, you can provide HELOCs, so that consumption doesn't go down.
no, you need not reduce production due to lower domestic demand for goods and services you create. you expand beyond your borders and encourage exports.
.. have a Coke and a McDonalds Cheeseburger in China. Its American meat and wheat anyway.
Why anti-socialists of today (say, repubs) wanna gut safety nets like social security?
Social Security started out in the 30s, but there have been many changes since.
Do you think a early 20th century "safety net" still applies in the 21st century.. almost 100 years later ?
Time to rethink and modernize.... example.. wouldnt a personal retirement account in the tax holders control and name with option of buying US govt savings bonds be a plausible alternative ?
MisdemeanorRebel
2012 Aug 18, 3:03am
Time to rethink and modernize.... example.. wouldnt a personal retirement account in the tax holders control and name with option of buying US govt savings bonds be a plausible alternative ?
No. See Chile.
I, for one, think that maybe its time to increase the cost of living. Whoever thought that you should get to live free of charge? Best you always remember, that you owe someone else for the right to live, and it doesn't come cheap!
freak80
2012 Aug 19, 11:59pm
Well, you are bringing down the aggregate demand for the entire economy! They call it a paradox of thrift!!
Don't worry. The Fed will justly punish jvolstad with inflation and ZIRP.
How dare he try to protect his capital from theft by Crony Capitalists! The nerve!
I would, but my neighbors, the Joneses, just got a new car and deck built! So naturally, I need these things too.
MisdemeanorRebel
2012 Aug 20, 1:49am
Those who are trying to gut safety nets are killing their golden goose!
But the Market(tm) is always right. We should stand aside from this force of nature and not intervene in the slightest, no matter what happens. How dare humans attempt to regulate or mitigate the forces of nature?! Bow down before Mammon, do as He says, most Holy Market!
I'm glad we don't have this attitude towards Drainage Ditches, Earthquake-zone building codes and Hurricane preparedness.
Time to rethink and modernize.... example.. wouldnt a personal retirement account in the tax holders control and name with option of buying US govt savings bonds be a plausible alternative ?
If you think out how modern fiat monetary regime works, this is what you see sectorally:
gubmint deficits = private-sector savings.
You can also look cumulatively. Cumulative private-sector savings = cumulative gubmit deficits!
Of course, you may get confused by the existence of nominal assets. All assets are financialized; so, you need to start think in terms of financials.
We should look beyond what mainstream (including Austrians, neo-classicals and neo-liberals) is saying about montetary system.
So, the question is not so much about the risky nature of financial instruments (t notes, derivates, cd-s, money market funds, etc). Social security/medicare is not solvent if you beyond the false assumption that deficits and/or govt expenses are financed by taxes and/or t-notes sales.
wrote about that off balance sheet accounting. That allowed toxic loans to be hidden off the books of the banks awaiting securitization.
We should stop worrying about banks. Even if there were healthy banks, they do not increase the aggregate demand, which drives the production, which further drives jobs.
So, what we need is: a tax policy that favors local production; a fiscal policy that creates job in infrastructure and other things. Both libertarianism (Austrians) and mainstream economics (neo-classical and/or neo-liberal) espoused by both leftist and right economists prevent the latter fiscal policy for different reasons.
1. Austrians and mainstream economics operate with a false assumption that govt deficits are funded by borrowings.
2. What distinguishes mainstream left economists from the right? NAIRU, etc
I, for one, think that maybe its time to increase the cost of living. Whoever thought that you should get to live free of charge? Best you always remember, that you owe someone else for the right to live, and it doesn't come cheap!
I am all for it!! However, I hate the way things go: they are too slow for me. Accelerating the changes help bring in changes: otherwise, it is like kicking the can down the road!
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Politicians, economists, private citizens, public and private unions all want to have highly paid jobs. Not many such jobs exist. Why not these folks focus on cutting down the cost of living? For instance, food is damn cheap in the states. In countries like India, those in Africa, majority of their earnings go to the food. In the states, majority of it goes to paying rent (mortgage), health insurance, etc.
Manufacturing jobs are not coming back: even Foxconn in China is replacing humans with robots. JC Penney is replacing cashiers with self-check out counters. Big expense items for any company is labor and their health insurance. Companies, in order to beat the competition, find creative ways to cut down these expenses.
Why don't academics, thinktanks, politicians, economists, focus on CUTTING down the cost of living? Why waste time on generating highly paid jobs, only to have these wages taken away by rentiers?
What do you say?
#housing