patrick.net

I don't see Bigsby's argument. The bubble was inflating pretty good by 2001, so 2003 or 2004 prices aren't anything to be excited about.

Goran_K says

I don't see Bigsby's argument. The bubble was inflating pretty good by 2001, so 2003 or 2004 prices aren't anything to be excited about.

Er, why don't you look at the real house price chart rather than Darrell's nominal one? Real house prices look like they are basically back to their norms and given the record low interest rates, then presumably affordability must be pretty damn good for most people (read most people, not necessarily those living in the BA etc.). Do you see my point now?

Darrell In Phoenix says

Goran_K says

I don't see Bigsby's argument. The bubble was inflating pretty good by 2001, so 2003 or 2004 prices aren't anything to be excited about.

He got caught lying once again.

Darrell, Darrell, every time your knuckles scrape across your keyboard you get caught lying.

You already posted that Darrell. Is your memory really that bad?

Darrell In Phoenix says

You're lying to the public about housing.

Why are you lying Bibsy?

Here we go again. Go on then 'Darrell the troll', what am I lying about?

Darrell In Phoenix says

Why are you playing stupid about your lies Bibsy?

Troll lol lol lol....

you cant afford a house on $10/hr either place.

Darrell In Phoenix says

jan says

you cant afford a house on $10/hr either place.

This truth goes to show you how grossly inflated housing prices are, even though prices are falling.

Now.... Do you believe that wages will triple to meet inflated housing prices or do you believe housing prices will continue to fall to meet wages......

You know the answer.

NAILED IT. That is precisely what most cannot see or answer, this is exactly the problem, and the basis for why this mess is such a MESS. I guess people don't remember pre-1975 when small houses in nice clean neighborhoods were 35K no more than 50K each.

As for LA those houses built on the Westside in 1960s ? They were 25K a pop 50K bought you a house in a very good area. 150K bought a stunning property in a high end neighborhood. So no one is going to tell me that a small shack in the same neighbourhoods today warrant 750K NO WAY NO HOW.

Does RE pricing today match wages? NO IT DOES NOT because it isn't in line with the dollar, and hasn't been in a very long time.

Also to top it off, in West LA prior to the early 80s no only did one lived well at reasonable prices in Santa Monica, Culver City or Beverly Hills (which were known for their tri-schools.) You would live there with your family primarily for their public schools as they were as good as private, tuition free with actual student residents from those given areas, NOT Inglewood and downtown LA students bused in on vouchers as they are now.

So recap this with my prevous comment above this one, and think about today ...it is NOT a pretty picture of neighbourhood bliss by my standards.

Reader says

So no one is going to tell me that a small shack in the same neighbourhoods today warrant 750K NO WAY NO HOW.

Of course.. LA in the 60s is exactly the same as they are now, and housing prices should be the same + inflation.

Oh wait, maybe there is one small difference

SFV 1963

SFV 2011

Maybe a better comparison might be tract housing prices in 1960s LA vs tract housing prices in 2012 Vegas.

Bigsby says

Er, why don't you look at the real house price chart rather than Darrell's nominal one? Real house prices look like they are basically back to their norms and given the record low interest rates, then presumably affordability must be pretty damn good for most people

How are wages different? What about employment numbers? If less people are working, and wages are stagnant while other things have gotten more expensive (gas for instance), then "affordability" may even be worse.

Your point, and your explanation don't necessarily paint a conclusively picture.

Reader says

actual student residents from those given areas, NOT Inglewood and downtown LA students bused in on vouchers as they are now.

Reader

What do you mean "bused in"?

Michinaga says

summers aren't nearly as hellishly hot.

New York summers not HOT?!? Have you EVER been to NYC in the summertime? It's disgustingly humid and feels far hotter than even Las Vegas in the summer.

I prefer dry heat that is 10-20 degrees hotter than a lower temperature where you step out side and are soaked in sweat from the humidity.

Reader says

As for LA those houses built on the Westside in 1960s ? They were 25K a pop 50K bought you a house in a very good area. 150K bought a stunning property in a high end neighborhood. So no one is going to tell me that a small shack in the same neighbourhoods today warrant 750K NO WAY NO HOW.

And gas was 31 cents a gallon then. I guess no one's going to be able to tell you that it's $4.xx now?

Goran_K says

How are wages different? What about employment numbers? If less people are working, and wages are stagnant while other things have gotten more expensive (gas for instance), then "affordability" may even be worse.

Your point, and your explanation don't necessarily paint a conclusively picture.

I imagine wages have been pretty stagnant in real terms at least for those outside the 1%, who apparently should be taxed less according to certain characters on here. And of course unemployment is a major problem (though presumably we are looking to what will happen in coming years and the optimist in me imagines that things will improve even if only gradually). And sure prices are up, though I'm not sure how big a deal changes in gas prices have been given improvements in mileage and the fact that the increase (on average) isn't as large as some people seem to imagine. Someone will have to show me the effect of that. Anyway, what do you expect nominal house prices to have done since 2003? We presumably aren't talking about people already holding mortgages here, rather people looking to buy, so real house prices are rather important, wouldn't you say?

Darrell In Phoenix says

Gas was 1.75/gal just 3 years ago.

Well?

It was $4 at one point towards the end of Bush's term. The average adjusted for inflation during Bush's second term was $2.98. For Obama, the figure is $3.04. Paint me stunned that oil prices dropped rapidly over a short period at the height of the world recession.

Bigsby says

so real house prices are rather important, wouldn't you say?

I think you were going in the right direction with "affordability", I just don't see your conclusion as being self evident. It just takes one look at the purchase mortgage index to see that IMO.

Goran_K says

I think you were going in the right direction with "affordability", I just don't see your conclusion as being self evident. It just takes one look at the purchase mortgage index to see that IMO.

I'm quite sure there are many factors at play, but if or when the economy picks up, the fact that nationally houses seem pretty affordable would seem to point to a stabilization or potential moderate increase in house prices. Now it may well be different in certain areas because quite clearly they don't have the same levels of affordability - for most posters on here for example, but the BA isn't the whole country. And even then, if the economy picks up generally, then there isn't going to be much downward pressure on prices in the BA.

When houses cost $25k-$50k in the 1950s... Yearly household wages were like $5000 a year.. Now they are 10x that and home prices are about 10x too... Pretty simple math.

. The big problem is that $5000 household income in the 50s was earned by the man and wife had leisure time to raise the kids. Now it takes two incomes which makes things unaffordable if you factor in childcare.

Darrell In Phoenix says

Bigsby says

houses seem pretty affordable

According to what? Because a lying realtor like you says so?

The truth is housing prices are still at the grossly inflated levels of 2004. And considering prices are rolling back to early 1990's levels, we have a long way to go yet.

!

We are already at mid 1990s prices in terms of monthly nut. All due to interest rates being 3% vs 8% in the 90s. Do some math for a change

Darrell In Phoenix says

The truth is housing prices are still at the grossly inflated levels of 2004. And considering prices are rolling back to early 1990's levels, we have a long way to go yet.

In nominal terms, and according to the graph YOU posted, they are at 2003 levels. But then when you draw a line on a graph to show 2004, you aren't actually supposed to stick it in the middle of 2003. Not unless you are Dullell of course.

BoomAndBustCycle says

When houses cost $25k-$50k in the 1950s... Yearly household wages were like $5000 a year.. Now they are 10x that and home prices are about 10x too... Pretty simple math.

. The big problem is that $5000 household income in the 50s was earned by the man and wife had leisure time to raise the kids. Now it takes two incomes which makes things unaffordable if you factor in childcare.

It is not pretty simple math per your calculations because your math doesn't add up in the real world. Yearly incomes were not only $5000. a year for someone in a 50K house in the 1950s (which for your information a 50K house in the 1950s is about 1.5M or more today in some areas, in LA a 25K house in the 1950s some think they are getting 1M for today, that is far above and beyond ten times your $5000. a year income and far above and beyond household income today which makes them grossly overpriced and not sustainable to the dollar.)

What you also ignore is the cost of goods and services including gas, electric, food, insurance, clothing, etc. that were all a fraction of what they are now. When you factor all that in including income which is way less than it was then yet everything is ten times or more as much. There is NO value to the dollar and there is no way to justify it with the lame excuse of inflation. If you think everything today is ten times the price and so is income? You are on fantasy island.

Reader says

What you also ignore is the cost of gas/electric/food etc that was a fraction of what it is now.

A fraction? What were gas prices adjusted for inflation (and how many miles to a gallon were the cars getting)? The cost of cars? What food are you comparing? Clothes? ...

BoomAndBustCycle says

Darrell In Phoenix says

Bigsby says

houses seem pretty affordable

According to what? Because a lying realtor like you says so?

The truth is housing prices are still at the grossly inflated levels of 2004. And considering prices are rolling back to early 1990's levels, we have a long way to go yet.

!

We are already at mid 1990s prices in terms of monthly nut. All due to interest rates being 3% vs 8% in the 90s. Do some math for a change

So in other words if you saw a payment of 500. a month on a 3M dump you would by it? You better do some math in the real cost of financing.

Darrell In Phoenix says

Gas was 1.75/gal just 3 years ago.

Well?

There is no sense talking to some of these people because they clearly bit the bullet have buyers remorse and will do and say anything to justify their stupidity. Let's be thankful there are a handful of us that avoided this lunacy and aren't debt slaves. My stuff is paid cash. I don't have to justify a God damn thing to myself.

Reader says

106   Wed, 19 Sep 2012 at 4:23 am   SHARE   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Delete  
Darrell In Phoenix says

Gas was 1.75/gal just 3 years ago.

Well?

There is no sense talking to some of these people because they clearlly bit the bullet have buyers remorse and will do and say anything to justify their stupidity. Let's be thankful there are a handful of us that avoided this lunacy and aren't debt slaves. My stuff is paid cash. I have to have justify a God damn thing.

Good grief. The low gas prices were because of a major world recession. What about the $4 oil prices near the end of Bush's second term? What about the average for the gas prices? Cherry picking one particular number and making out that it was the norm is just rank stupidity.

Bigsby says

Reader says

106   Wed, 19 Sep 2012 at 4:23 am   SHARE   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Delete  

Darrell In Phoenix says

Gas was 1.75/gal just 3 years ago.

Well?

There is no sense talking to some of these people because they clearlly bit the bullet have buyers remorse and will do and say anything to justify their stupidity. Let's be thankful there are a handful of us that avoided this lunacy and aren't debt slaves. My stuff is paid cash. I have to have justify a God damn thing.

Good grief. The low gas prices were because of a major world recession. What about the $4 oil prices near the end of Bush's second term? What about the average for the gas prices? Cherry picking one particular number and making out that it was the norm back then is just rank stupidity.

He isn't cherrypicking one number pick any number for food to gas and I am not talking Bush for Christ's sake W is NOT the basis for all that is today just get off the W bus. Pick any number.

Bigsby says

Reader says

What you also ignore is the cost of gas/electric/food etc that was a fraction of what it is now.

A fraction? What were gas prices adjusted for inflation (and how many miles to a gallon were the cars getting)? The cost of cars? What food are you comparing? Clothes? ...

There is your problem you suffer from the adjusted for inflation syndrome you buy right into the mentality they brainwashed you into. However, reality is that not everything adjusted for inflation. EVERYTHING is through the roof. Have you not noticed what has happened gas double, food double, housing in fake numbers triple, clothes double, real wages declined.

JG1 says

Reader says

As for LA those houses built on the Westside in 1960s ? They were 25K a pop 50K bought you a house in a very good area. 150K bought a stunning property in a high end neighborhood. So no one is going to tell me that a small shack in the same neighbourhoods today warrant 750K NO WAY NO HOW.

And gas was 31 cents a gallon then. I guess no one's going to be able to tell you that it's $4.xx now?

Re-read your own comment YES GAS TODAY IS 4GAL AND IT WAS 31 CENTS AND A NEW HOUSE WAS 25K GET IT???

Michael Cooke says

Reader says

actual student residents from those given areas, NOT Inglewood and downtown LA students bused in on vouchers as they are now.

Reader

What do you mean "bused in"?

Metaphor. They are allowed in to school districts yet they do not live there.

Reader says

He isn't cherrypicking one number pick any number for food to gas and I am not talking Bush for Christ's sake W is NOT the basis for all that is today just get off the W bus. Pick any number.

What are you talking about? Of course he is cherry picking. It is an obviously deceptive number. And if he picks a number 3 years ago, then that is the number you discuss and within a related timeframe, or do you want me to suddenly jump from there to 1950 and an entirely different world?

Bigsby says

Reader says

He isn't cherrypicking one number pick any number for food to gas and I am not talking Bush for Christ's sake W is NOT the basis for all that is today just get off the W bus. Pick any number.

What are you talking about? Of course he is cherry picking. It is an obviously deceptive number. And if he picks a number 3 years ago, then that is the number you discuss and within a related timeframe, or do you want me to suddenly jump from there to 1950 and an entirely different world?

Well, I am not referring to the past 15 years for anything because none of it was real.

Darrell In Phoenix says

BoomAndBustCycle says

We are already at mid 1990s prices in terms of monthly nut. All due to interest rates being 3% vs 8% in the 90s. Do some math for a change

Nonsense.

And try exercising some financial restraint instead of being a howmuchamonth'er.

Restraint?! How dare you ask anyone to conduct themselves with adult intelligence, responsibility and foresight. :-)

Reader says

There is your problem you suffer from the adjusted for inflation syndrome you buy right into the mentality they brainwashed you into. However, reality is that not everything adjusted for inflation. EVERYTHING is through the roof. Have you not noticed what has happened gas double, food double, housing in fake numbers triple, clothes double, real wages declined.

I didn't say everything adjusted for inflation, I said you had to take it into consideration because stating that things like gas used to be a fraction of what they are now is clearly implying that current prices are many times higher than the past adjusted for inflation prices. That's just not true. Gas prices have varied greatly over the decades and actual cost to an individual is clearly also impacted by mileage, which has improved greatly. Or do you take everything in isolation? And what exactly do you expect to happen to a finite resource in a world with an ever increasing population?

Reader says

Restraint?! How dare you ask anyone to conduct themselves with adult intelligence, responsibility and foresight. :-)

You certainly shouldn't bother asking Darrell.

Darrell In Phoenix says

Of course it's true. Wages have been flat to falling for 2 decades now.

Do really believe wages will triple to meet inflated housing prices? Of course not.

Housing prices will continue to fall to meet wages. That's the way the world works.

What's the current median US house price?

Darrell In Phoenix says

Whoa....

Of all people to belabor deception!!!

You've been here lying to the public about housing for how long now?

We;re going to call you out on your lies EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

You say that in nearly every post to me and yet strangely you've never once actually demonstrated it. What a surprise.

Reader says

Well, I am not referring to the past 15 years for anything because none of it was real.

Presumably you just dreamt it.

Bigsby says

Reader says

Well, I am not referring to the past 15 years for anything because none of it was real.

Presumably you just dreamt it.

No pal my mind is clear and head on straight once again let's review I have substaintial assets, no mortgage debt, no auto debt, under 15K left on a private university education and money in the bank. I am NOT dreaming.

Bigsby says

Darrell In Phoenix says

Of course it's true. Wages have been flat to falling for 2 decades now.

Do really believe wages will triple to meet inflated housing prices? Of course not.

Housing prices will continue to fall to meet wages. That's the way the world works.

What's the current median US house price?

TOO HIGH