patrick.net

Strategic Renter says

Looks like the bull trap has sprung and prices have resumed their fall to affordability
http://lansner.ocregister.com/2012/09/08/166087/166087/
Great news for buyer watching and waiting.

Investors are snapping up the lower priced properties because they have better CAP rates. That lowers the median price.
In reality prices are exploding beyond all expectations. There is nothing to buy. OMG.

robertoaribas says

AND the mix of homes selling can effect the median drastically... When Case-shiller type indices show this turn around, maybe you'll have something.

By the time Case-Shiller shows the resumption of the crash, roberto and the likes will be licking their wounds, deep in the fear stage of this multi-decade decline.

robertoaribas says

Yawn, let me know when it's down 10% year over year

Well, it's a good thing that you bulls always have some lame excuse to cling on to. That way you stay well implanted in your froggie pots.

Darrell In Phoenix says

http://lansner.ocregister.com/2012/09/08/166087/166087/

I thought you were expecting a further 65% crash in prices.

Darrell In Phoenix says

I thought you were going to start being truthful with the public?

Now what part don't you understand about a 0.5% YoY increase being statistical noise?

I understand the part that it's not a further 65% crash.

A flat market is far far better than a 65% crash you predicted. Even if it is statistical noise.. a relatively flat market it is.

Strategic Renter says

Looks like the bull trap...

Great news for buyer watching and waiting.

Bad news for seller watching and waiting. Bad news for the banksters watching and not foreclosing. Bad news for the economy because people are not spending.

Sounds like interest rate will keep on falling. Good news for homeowners because they can refinance and drop their monthly payments. Good news for investors because their monthly cashflow will go up. It's good for the economy due to more disposable income from homeowners and investors.

Hmm, Deflation or Inflation Spriral here? Maybe we will muddle along for years.

E-man says

Hmm, Deflation or Inflation Spriral here? Maybe we will muddle along for years.

Japanese style?

coriacci1 says

E-man says

Hmm, Deflation or Inflation Spriral here? Maybe we will muddle along for years.

Japanese style?

I welcome it from an investor standpoint.

BoomAndBustCycle says

A flat market is far far better than a 65% crash you predicted. Even if it is statistical noise.. a relatively flat market it is.

A journey has to start with a first step. Month on month prices will now continue their journey to that 65% decrease.

Very interesting stats about Orange County from Dr. Housing Bubble.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/orange-county-housing-inventory-2012-faling-invnetory-orange-county-leverage-low-interest-rates/

Most telling
Median home price OC

June 1991: $220,000

Jan 1996: $184,000

May 1998: $221,500

June 2007: $645,000

Jan 2008: $520,000

Aug 2012: $450,000

That and Current OC median household income? $74,000. 2000 household income? $61,899

Very important.

Back in 2000 the 30 year fixed rate mortgage was around 8 percent. Today it is down to 3.5 percent (a 56 percent drop). On a $400,000 loan this is the difference:

$400,000 PI at 8%: $2,935

$400,000 PI at 3.5%: $1,796

That is big chunk of change in monthly payments-but you are taking on almost double the amount of debt, not to mention taxes!!

robertoaribas says

that's kind of funny, as I watch homes selling at literally over twice what i paid for them just 18 months ago...

I invite you to show me a listing which is 100% higher today, than 18 months ago.

The problem that people on a large scale don't realise is that the pricing was fake, orchestrated and based on greed. The inflated prices and most of them today are still not value to the dollar they are just based on and bitched against pricing that was not real. So essentially there is no decline because the rise wasn't real.