patrick.net

Strategic Renter says

Looks like the bull trap has sprung and prices have resumed their fall to affordability
http://lansner.ocregister.com/2012/09/08/166087/166087/
Great news for buyer watching and waiting.

Investors are snapping up the lower priced properties because they have better CAP rates. That lowers the median price.
In reality prices are exploding beyond all expectations. There is nothing to buy. OMG.

robertoaribas says

AND the mix of homes selling can effect the median drastically... When Case-shiller type indices show this turn around, maybe you'll have something.

By the time Case-Shiller shows the resumption of the crash, roberto and the likes will be licking their wounds, deep in the fear stage of this multi-decade decline.

robertoaribas says

Yawn, let me know when it's down 10% year over year

Well, it's a good thing that you bulls always have some lame excuse to cling on to. That way you stay well implanted in your froggie pots.

Darrell In Phoenix says

http://lansner.ocregister.com/2012/09/08/166087/166087/

I thought you were expecting a further 65% crash in prices.

Darrell In Phoenix says

I thought you were going to start being truthful with the public?

Now what part don't you understand about a 0.5% YoY increase being statistical noise?

I understand the part that it's not a further 65% crash.

A flat market is far far better than a 65% crash you predicted. Even if it is statistical noise.. a relatively flat market it is.

Strategic Renter says

Looks like the bull trap...

Great news for buyer watching and waiting.

Bad news for seller watching and waiting. Bad news for the banksters watching and not foreclosing. Bad news for the economy because people are not spending.

Sounds like interest rate will keep on falling. Good news for homeowners because they can refinance and drop their monthly payments. Good news for investors because their monthly cashflow will go up. It's good for the economy due to more disposable income from homeowners and investors.

Hmm, Deflation or Inflation Spriral here? Maybe we will muddle along for years.

E-man says

Hmm, Deflation or Inflation Spriral here? Maybe we will muddle along for years.

Japanese style?

coriacci1 says

E-man says

Hmm, Deflation or Inflation Spriral here? Maybe we will muddle along for years.

Japanese style?

I welcome it from an investor standpoint.

BoomAndBustCycle says

A flat market is far far better than a 65% crash you predicted. Even if it is statistical noise.. a relatively flat market it is.

A journey has to start with a first step. Month on month prices will now continue their journey to that 65% decrease.

Very interesting stats about Orange County from Dr. Housing Bubble.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/orange-county-housing-inventory-2012-faling-invnetory-orange-county-leverage-low-interest-rates/

Most telling
Median home price OC

June 1991: $220,000

Jan 1996: $184,000

May 1998: $221,500

June 2007: $645,000

Jan 2008: $520,000

Aug 2012: $450,000

That and Current OC median household income? $74,000. 2000 household income? $61,899

Very important.

Back in 2000 the 30 year fixed rate mortgage was around 8 percent. Today it is down to 3.5 percent (a 56 percent drop). On a $400,000 loan this is the difference:

$400,000 PI at 8%: $2,935

$400,000 PI at 3.5%: $1,796

That is big chunk of change in monthly payments-but you are taking on almost double the amount of debt, not to mention taxes!!

robertoaribas says

that's kind of funny, as I watch homes selling at literally over twice what i paid for them just 18 months ago...

I invite you to show me a listing which is 100% higher today, than 18 months ago.

The problem that people on a large scale don't realise is that the pricing was fake, orchestrated and based on greed. The inflated prices and most of them today are still not value to the dollar they are just based on and bitched against pricing that was not real. So essentially there is no decline because the rise wasn't real.

Why are you having a hissy fit about somebody's predictions for the price of silver?

Bigsby says

He just happens to have a different point of view to the housing bears on here.

Yes, except his point of view has proven to be wrong every time, but he still sticks to it, because he is a troll.

dunnross says

Bigsby says

He just happens to have a different point of view to the housing bears on here.

Yes, except his point of view has proven to be wrong every time, but he still sticks to it, because he is a troll.

His point of view isn't wrong all the time as you well know. I could just as easily turn around and say that the housing bears on here have been wrong all the time. They haven't, but they most certainly haven't been right all the time either. And as time goes on, their/your bearish rants are looking less and less accurate.

dunnross says

Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is, and make a wager with me on that one?

How about this. I will send $200 to patrick, tomorrow. You don't need to send a dollar. If I lose, you keep the $200. If you lose, and silver never makes it down to $15, patrick will delete your user name. Let this go on the record.

Darrell In Phoenix says

Bigsby says

Nobody thinks he's an oracle. He just happens to have a different point of view to the housing bears on here. Big deal.

You're conflating a point a view with misrepresentations.

Housing prices are falling.

Misrepresentations? Don't be silly. He expresses his view on here, clearly I may add, and invariably tries to support his argument with data. If only the same could be said for certain other posters.

To get back on topic. As someone with boots on the ground in numerous OC cities, what we have right now is a huge structural issue.

- Short sellers have no incentive to move because banks won't foreclose.

- Traditional sellers are underwater and asking for prices far too high. Even if they get a sucker, the appraisal bombs the entire deal to hell.

- Pendings go Active, Active goes pending, repeat.

There was a short sale I called in about last week, not priced extremely well, but the house looked good in terms of the layout I personally want. To even see the house, the sellers required that a signed offer be presented, and IF the sellers accept the offer, then you can see the house and get out of the deal on the inspection contingency. So basically, you have to eat $400 on the inspection just to see the house. If you don't like the house after actually seeing it in person, too bad, you had to pay for the privilege of seeing this overpriced home that some debtor is squatting in anyway, and hasn't made a mortgage payment on for 3 years!!!

Of course the market under $500,000 has been extremely hot. Lots of investor speculation, and FHA offers. If you're within that sweet spot of the FHA conforming limit, $400,000 to $425,000, you will encounter properties with 20 offers that go pending within a day or two. Of course, whether it will close or not is anyone's guess.

Enjoy the freedom of living in rented accomodation the market will sort itself out as soon as all these temporary fixes disappear. Anyone who plays the banks game will be economically punished.