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The Housing Trap


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2012 Sep 18, 8:53am   211,267 views  261 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (61)   💰tip   ignore  

http://www.amazon.com/Housing-Trap-Buyers-Captured-Yourself/dp/1479156213/?tag=patricknet-20

It's $12.50 so that if you buy two (makes a great gift!) then you don't have to pay any shipping charges.

Here is the table of contents:

Trapped! 8

  Can't Sell 9

  Can't Pay Off Mortgage 10

  Must Keep Obeying Boss 10

The Conspirators 12

  Your Agent 12

  Your Mortgage Broker 18

  Your Bank 18

  Fannie And Freddie 19

  The Federal Reserve 20

  Newspapers 21

  The NAR 23

  Congress 24

  The President of The United States 25

  Current Owners 25

  Your Boss 26

  Your Parents 27

  Your Wife's Parents 27

  Your Wife 27

Fallacies and Fantasies 30

  Appreciation 30

  Building Equity 32

  Renters Throw Money Away 34

  Tax Deduction 37

  Real Estate Is Local 39

  So Little Supply 40

  So Many Buyers 40

  Foreigners 41

  House Prices Don't Fall To Zero 41

  Supply And Demand 42

  Land Shortage 44

  Fundamentals Don't Matter 44

  Commissions Don't Matter 45

  Agents Don't Care What You Pay 46

  My Neighborhood Is Different 46

  You Have To Live Somewhere 47

  Rentals Not Available 48

  Rentals All Suck 48

  Owners Can Remodel 49

  But The Newspapers Say... 50

  But The Appraiser Said... 51

  Home Sweet Home 52

  Status 53

  Affordability Is Good Now 53

  Owning Limits Your Monthly Payment 54

  People Buy On Emotion 55

  Baby Needs House 55

  I Just Want It 56

Scams and Dirty Tricks 58

  Realtors® Claiming They re "Free" 58

  Claiming That You Need An Agent 60

  Showing You The Ugly Dogs First 61

  Underpricing 62

  Missing Price 64

  Missing Address 64

  Renting Property Without Permission 65

  Straw Buyers 65

  Faking Comps 66

  Faking The Dimensions 67

  Faking The Sale 67

  Erasing Price History And Relisting 68

  Faking Higher Offers 69

  Hiding Your Low Offer 69

  Taking Bribe To Hide Your Offer 70

  Hiding Offer To Get Double Commission 70

  Hiding Offer To Get Seller To Take Loss 71

  Photoshop 71

  Advertising Agent Instead Of House 71

  Kickbacks 72

  Bribes 72

  A Trick Of Your Own 73

What Should You Do? 75

  Be Paranoid 75

  Never Sign Any Agent Agreement 75

  Never Reveal Your Price Limit 77

  Hire Your Own Independent Inspector 78

  Favor FSBOs 78

  Do Not Rush 80

  Do Not Overpay 81

  Deliver Offer To Seller Personally 83

  Pay Cash 84

  Long Term Lease 85

  Walk Away 85

  If You're A Realtor® 87

Calculating Fair Price 88

  Two Kinds Of Rent 89

  Borrowing Does Not Help 91

  Downpayment Doesn't Help Much 91

  Conventional Mortgage 92

  Deduction Doesn't Help Most People 93

  Appreciation Is Uncertain 95

  Taxability Of Gains 96

  What About Leverage? 97

  What About Inflation? 98

  Rules Of Thumb 99

  Anything else? 101

Long-Term Solutions 102

  Call Housing Inflation What It Is 102

  Help Correct Reporters 103

  No Public Guarantees For Private Debt 104

  No Mortgage Interest Deduction 105

  Public Bids On Housing 107

  Legally Binding Offers To Sell 108

  Eliminate Comps As Meaningless 108

  No Empty Houses 109

  Publicly Financed Elections 110

  End Proposition 13 In California 111

  The Georgist Land Value Tax 112

  Spread The Word 113


« First        Comments 222 - 261 of 261        Search these comments

222   anonymous   2012 Nov 2, 1:32pm  


You'd buy even if it continued to be a far better deal to rent the same thing?

Most people are willing to pay more to own than rent because they prefer the lifestyle. It's the only way to have a house that (over time) is completely personalized. Remodel to your liking, restructure to your liking.

223   Patrick   2012 Nov 2, 1:36pm  

SubOink says

Remodel to your liking, restructure to your liking.

Maybe inside, if you get planning permission and all. Outside, much harder to get permission.

And who says landlords won't allow improvements? They love improvements.

SubOink says

if you buy at the right price...

Yes, that's my whole point and only point really. So you agree.

SubOink says

I don't know ANYBODY that has owned and moved within 6 years

And nonetheless it's a fact that the median ownership length is 6 years. Look it up.

224   toothfairy   2012 Nov 2, 2:02pm  


Maybe inside, if you get planning permission and all. Outside, much harder to get permission.
And who says landlords won't allow improvements? They love improvements.

Actually landlords dont love improvements unless it's done the way THEY want it.
I'm in the process of converting my house into a duplex so I can leave one half open for when I want to stay there and rent the other half.
Good luck getting your landlord to agree to that!
And no I'm not getting anyone's permission to do this. If the city says something I'll pay the fines.

SubOink says

The truth is - I don't know ANYBODY that has owned and moved within 6 years

actually most of the homes I've bought I've lived there for 6 years or less but only because I bought a new house and transferred my equity into the new one . As long as you don't increase your debt you're still on the same 30 year cycle.

225   Patrick   2012 Nov 2, 2:04pm  

SFace says

would you really want to upgrade the kitchen or bathroom knowing you are leasing the place?

People do, especially in expensive markets. It's fairly standard with high-end rentals in NYC.

226   Patrick   2012 Nov 2, 2:23pm  

SFace says

An established neighborhood like Menlo Park, especially for SFH, median ownership is likely around 20 years.

No, pretty sure it's nowhere near 20 years. Houses turn over here constantly. Just drive around and you see for sale signs all the time. I certainly see them.

In fact, I usually get a kick out of biking around and noting all the houses I've seen the inside of when they were for sale. There are only a very few people I know of who've been in the neighborhood longer than I have (13 years now).

227   anonymous   2012 Nov 2, 4:10pm  


than I have (13 years now)

You yourself prove me right. Haven't moved in 13 years...

I rest my case.

228   Patrick   2012 Nov 3, 12:12am  

I rent though.

229   toothfairy   2012 Nov 3, 12:45am  

Buying a house is a tricky thing most people go through a few before they finally settle down.

230   taxee   2012 Nov 7, 9:35pm  

Cut expenses while you are working. Save half your income. Buy with cash when you retire. Use a lifetime of learning to make the biggest purchase of your life.

231   bubblesitter   2012 Nov 8, 12:15am  

taxee says

Cut expenses while you are working. Save half your income. Buy with cash when you retire. Use a lifetime of learning to make the biggest purchase of your life.

But then you will miss the lifetime experience of speculating!

232   taxee   2012 Nov 8, 2:10am  

bubblesitter says

But then you will miss the lifetime experience of speculating!

Youth is a kick even without spending a lot. Go for the surest thing and maybe have a dignified old age.

233   PockyClipsNow   2012 Nov 8, 8:58am  


SubOink says

Remodel to your liking, restructure to your liking.

Maybe inside, if you get planning permission and all. Outside, much harder to get permission.

And who says landlords won't allow improvements? They love improvements.

SubOink says

if you buy at the right price...

Yes, that's my whole point and only point really. So you agree.

SubOink says

I don't know ANYBODY that has owned and moved within 6 years

And nonetheless it's a fact that the median ownership length is 6 years. Look it up.

Flippers have skewed the owership average a lot. They shouldnt count a less than one year of owning but they do.

234   zesta   2012 Nov 8, 9:39am  


There are only a very few people I know of who've been in the neighborhood longer than I have (13 years now).

I'd love to see a rough rent/buy calc for over the 13 years that shows you have been better off renting vs buying for those 13 years.

Not saying it's not possible, especially with a great rental deal, but hard for me to fathom without seeing the numbers.

235   Biff Baxter   2012 Nov 20, 10:14am  

I saw Patrick's ad for his book today. I hope he sells a lot of them. I only wish he provided more details about what is in the book.

Biff

236   BayArea   2012 Dec 3, 10:06am  

SFace says

My SFH in Hercules, probably 1-2, lol.

@SFace so true. My folks own a home in neighboring Pinole, and the turnover we've witnessed in this neighborhood has been alarming... Neighborhood was built in 1990 and is in the ballpark of less than 10% of original owners remaining. That makes for a neighborhood where you don't want to meet your neighbors since they are sure to bail in no time.

Patrick, how many copies you up to?

Test: @BayArea

237   FunTime   2012 Dec 4, 2:18am  

Bought it and my wife immediately picked it up and started reading. Surprising since she loathes another rant from me inspired by patrick.net.

238   Patrick   2012 Dec 4, 2:37am  

BayArea says

Patrick, how many copies you up to?

472 sold now.

239   BayArea   2012 Dec 4, 7:43am  

Awesome, climbing steadily looks like.

240   bubblesitter   2012 Dec 5, 1:38am  

Now, who are those bulls that posted negative reviews?

241   BayArea   2012 Dec 5, 2:17am  

Patrick, just left you my own 5-star Amazon review.

bubblesitter says

Now, who are those bulls that posted negative reviews?

One is someone that took offense to the wife section. I knew this would get some flack but I can't argue with Patrick on this one. Perhaps version II should go a touch more PC and note "spouse" instead as was already covered.

The other is someone that's simply overly critical.

But I do wonder, Patrick, was it still cheaper for you to rent where you are then to have bought the same thing in 2009-2011 when the Case-Shiller index in Nor CA dropped to below 125 (2002 pricing levels)?

242   Patrick   2012 Dec 5, 9:50am  

BayArea says

But I do wonder, Patrick, was it still cheaper for you to rent where you are then to have bought the same thing in 2009-2011 when the Case-Shiller index in Nor CA dropped to below 125 (2002 pricing levels)?

Yes! It is still far cheaper to rent where I am (94025), though the difference had declined a little.

It's still nuts here. Kind of like NYC. People pay amounts way beyond the fundamental value of a house or apartment just to impress their friends.

243   BayArea   2012 Dec 5, 10:18am  

Interesting!

I do think that the number of homeowners that know how to value a property and compare cost to own vs rent is staggeringly low if I had to guess.

For many, buying is just something you do as a inexplicable progression in ones life (or ones mind at least).

And to be fair when I bought in 2007, I had no clue on the topic of valuation and cost to buy vs rent.

244   Bellingham Bill   2012 Dec 5, 10:24am  


just to impress their friends

and be *with* their friends. Location, location, location.

I wouldn't mind getting a doomstead over the hill from you in the San Lorenzo valley, but who the hell will come and see me???

245   bg   2012 Dec 5, 3:44pm  

bubblesitter says

Now, who are those bulls that posted negative reviews?

There is only one. What do they know anyway. I teach classes of 40-100 people. I don't get too worried when one person gives me a scathing review.

246   Patrick   2012 Dec 6, 12:16am  

Bellingham Bill says

I wouldn't mind getting a doomstead

ROFL! I like the term "doomstead". Never head it before but I know exactly what you mean. A place to wait out the coming cannibal anarchy.

247   bubblesitter   2012 Dec 6, 12:50am  


Bellingham Bill says

I wouldn't mind getting a doomstead

ROFL! I like the term "doomstead". Never head it before but I know exactly what you mean. A place to wait out the coming cannibal anarchy.

AF would be the right person to add some flavor here. :)

248   Y   2013 Feb 20, 12:24pm  

how about getting it digitally on the Nook??

249   Patrick   2013 Feb 20, 12:26pm  

I like paper really. It sticks around much better than bits do.

Remember when Amazon was revoking books from people's Kindles without their permission? That kind of shit just can't be done with paper.

250   Y   2013 Feb 20, 12:30pm  

True...but I'm all set up for the Nook!
Nook HD+....Nook reader on the galaxy s3....both home and work computers...can get at all books/mags anytime anywhere...the convenience factor is overwhelming...
I'll give you $ 12.50 and you email me the original manuscript!! I gotta have it in 'bits'!

I like paper really. It sticks around much better than bits do.

Remember when Amazon was revoking books from people's Kindles without their permission? That kind of shit just can't be done with paper.

251   Y   2013 Feb 20, 12:31pm  

well, i can probably download the kindle reader for everything and get it there...

252   Patrick   2013 Feb 20, 12:31pm  

I'll mail you a paper copy. Email me where to send it.

253   Y   2013 Feb 20, 12:47pm  

Thanks for the offer...but i've ordered the digital copy...
Your frontpage advertisement finally wore me down!!

254   JodyChunder   2013 Feb 20, 1:49pm  

No matter which side of the fence you're one, it's an excellent reference, and gets the juices flowing. I bought one a few months back and have shared it with a couple of people. I need to buy another one for my son, who's about to strap himself to a millstone.

255   Alex Rademacher   2013 May 14, 1:48pm  

It all comes down to is it cheaper to rent or is it cheaper to buy ..

if you can Rent the home you'd love to live in for less than you would pay to buy it. why would you buy it? and vice versa.

for me the home i really wanted to live in was cheaper to buy, so i did. Using the Rent vs buy calculator came back with 17% more value to buy.

one thing that confuses me is that the rent vs buy calculator on this site ignores equity built up (or i'm just not seeing it)

also for me.. i just couldn't find a house with a full acre to rent. i could find houses with small back yards and 3 car garages , that were less than a stone throws from the neighbors. and i ended up buying a house with a 2 car (i have 4 vehicles + a trailer) but with a full acre parking is rather easy. :D

256   MAGA   2014 Sep 25, 9:12am  

How are sales going? Is release two coming out?

257   Diva24   2014 Sep 25, 9:50am  

toothfairy says

I can leave one half open for when I want to stay there and rent the other half.

If the city says something I'll pay the fines.

That's the landlord I want....
NOT!!

258   Diva24   2014 Sep 25, 9:53am  

zesta says

There are only a very few people I know of who've been in the neighborhood longer than I have (13 years now).

I'd love to see a rough rent/buy calc for over the 13 years that shows you have been better off renting vs buying for those 13 years.

Not saying it's not possible, especially with a great rental deal, but hard for me to fathom without seeing the numbers.

8 years in a rental purchased by owner for $405k.
Move in rent = $1,480. Move out rent = $1,630
Current asking price = $375K

Humm...

259   Nika   2015 Oct 23, 7:06am  

You are actually advocating being a life long renter?!

260   FortWayne   2015 Oct 26, 7:57pm  

You know Patrick I was thinking about this trap deal.

This housing isn't very different from credit cards. Credit cards try to get you to max yourself out and pay them interest for the rest of your life. And housing today isn't any different, banks want you paying interest to them for as long as they can get you. Might not be the same, but similarity is there.

261   B.A.C.A.H.   2015 Oct 27, 12:30pm  

Fort Wayne,
My partner and I were house poor for about five years, but after that, with prop 13 basis locked in and amortizing the loan it wasn't so bad.
Now my "rent" is below market by a lot.
Many I know who chose to rent over the years are dealing with rents escalating and getting kicked out for property upgrade, sale, family moving in, etc at the end of their leases.
Patrick moved here from the Midwest and brought his Midwest sensibility with him, hence his Sticker Shock.
Obnoxious Behavior of Obnoxious Bay Arean Obnoxious Realtors exacerbated his negative perception about buying.
Beans and Rice, Old Beater Cars, and Sucking It Up on the Job for a few years seem like relatively small sacrifice now, for our "rent controlled" residence.

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