patrick.net

Good afternoon, liar

yes i have fallen into the trap of 'waiting for EVEN LOWER prices' which was a mistake as I missed the bus. but at least i didnt buy in 08 which was a year soon, now i have a small window to buy only a year late.

Some of the permabears here will say 'dead cat bounce' but really unless they can explain exactly how,when,why mortgage rates are going to rise from here (when the feds said explicitly last week same rates until 2015) then they are wishing.

Certainly RE prices are a manipulated racket - thats why you buy with taxpayer money always. You take the gains, taxpayers eat the losses.

PockyClipsNow says

yes i have fallen into the trap of 'waiting for EVEN LOWER prices' which was a mistake as I missed the bus. but at least i didnt buy in 08 which was a year soon, now i have a small window to buy only a year late.

Some of the permabears here will say 'dead cat bounce' but really unless they can explain exactly how,when,why mortgage rates are going to rise from here (when the feds said explicitly last week same rates until 2015) then they are wishing.

Certainly RE prices are a manipulated racket - thats why you buy with taxpayer money always. You take the gains, taxpayers eat the losses.

You may have missed the first bus, but there is a bus every hour.
A few years from now real estate prices will double, and people will say - It was so obvious real estate was undervalued, why did i miss it.

PockyClipsNow says

Some of the permabears here will say 'dead cat bounce...'

A few years ago, I ran across an early usenet thread (1996)? Where people were arguing about whether the 1988 bubble had yet to fully deflate, or whether it was just a "blip" or a "dead cat bounce" and that there was another massive leg down in store...

Ironically, it looks like the same arguments are thrown out here on this blog today. I even think that some (not many but some) of the 1988 bubble sitters are still here today 24 years later. Interesting how history repeats itself.

Now in defense of the bears, I do not think there is any reason to rush. I think there could be another several years of flatness before there is any real pressure causing prices to rise. That said, anyone still here thinking about another massive leg down to come will probably still be here, renting & waiting when we hit the next bubble run up, say circa 2021-2027

apple face: "A few years from now real estate prices will double,"

hehe, Hahahahahaha, BWHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Is there a big ol' worm inside that apple eating your brain?

darrell is useless here.

wages dont matter as much as LOW INTEREST RATES

We have mortgages at 3.5% 30 year fixed this year.
This time last year it was 4.6% or so.

THUS prices rise 30% give or take depending on area.

Its not true that prices only go up but since 1980 its been true that interest rates only go down. (this is a 32 year trend people!!!!!!!!! some of you are not even 32 years old)

PockyClipsNow says

darrell is useless here.

wages dont matter as much as LOW INTEREST RATES

We have mortgages at 3.5% 30 year fixed this year.
This time last year it was 4.6% or so.

THUS prices rise 30% give or take depending on area.

Its not true that prices only go up but since 1980 its been true that interest rates only go down. (this is a 32 year trend people!!!!!!!!! some of you are not even 32 years old)

The return on lending money is already minuscule, and nearly below inflation at the prime rates, and purchase mortgage applications are still at historical lows.

Do you think the government will start paying people to take a home loan? Didn't they try that already? Did it work?

that was the old world darrell.

now we have the whole thing controlled by the feds and one guy printing trillions of dollars and buying up every single loan the banks can write as fast as they can write them. actually faster. he promised to buy all future loans also!

robertoaribas says

pazuzu says

apple face: "A few years from now real estate prices will double,"

hehe, Hahahahahaha, BWHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Is there a big ol' worm inside that apple eating your brain?

several of my purchase from last year have already doubled here in phoenix... 3/2 condos bought for 35K that would sell instantly for 70K today... 4 bedroom home bought for 46k + 10K rehab, today there is literally nothing anywhere around it for under 110K...

less than 15,000 for sale, 7500 selling a month = 2 months inventory going into fall when it has usually started to rise... ok dokie!

What will you do with all that money? Give some to Darrell, he will need all the help he can get when both prices and interest rates double.
I am still puzzled as to how prices can rise so quickly in a desert with an unlimited supply of land.

Darrell In Phoenix says

Considering prices are falling here, why are you puzzled?

I know prices overshot on the downside, and now they are bouncing back towards a normal level, but the cost of housing in Phoenix and Las Vegas will largely be dictated by construction costs. Land prices in most areas will never be high. There is just too much supply.

Darrell In Phoenix says

The only "bounce" is off a tread on the way down the stairs.

Prices are falling, thus there is no reason to be puzzled.

Do you know you can bet on real estate prices going down via investing in the Case Schiller index and make a lot of money?
Put your money where your mouth is. Let's see if you really think prices are crashing.

darrell sure can deny the obvious.

he really is a waste of time.

MoM stats are largely meaningless but YoY tell you the whole story in RE.

robertoaribas says

I know prices overshot on the downside, and now they are bouncing back towards a normal level, but the cost of housing in Phoenix and Las Vegas will largely be dictated by construction costs. Land prices in most areas will never be high. There is just too much supply.

There is an infinite supply of land... 60 miles away from where anybody works! I don't know about you, but saving $50,000 on a house only to spend 3 hours a day commuting to work and $5000 extra year on car expenses (gas, oil changes, tires, car wearing out and getting a new one) sounds like pretty dumb economics to me...

Most anywhere desirable is built out... Even Chandler and Gilbert, the last nice infill east valley cities are down to very few undeveloped lots.

why do you need to go 60 miles out? I'm sure there is a lot of vacant land within a 20 mile radius.
Look at the areas that were hit the most by the real estate crash...Las Vegas, Arizona, Inland Empire and Victorville. The common factor here is excessive building with a plentiful supply of land. Now look at the beach cities of California where the supply of land is obviously limited...the drop in prices was limited.

The supply of land is unlimited. Cities can always build UP. Look at japan. Consider the possibility that in another 100 years every major city in the US will look like New York.

1epinpb says

The supply of land is unlimited. Cities can always build UP. Look at japan. Consider the possibility that in another 100 years every major city in the US will look like New York.

Get your nose out of others' peoples bidness.

And down. Basements and sub basements are awesome!