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B.A.C.A.H.
2012 Nov 20, 11:57pm
here really aren't any patterns in economics. Each period is different, for different reasons. New technologies, wars, cultural shifts, politics, demographics, disease, and so many other factors contribute to the result.
No kidding. I just read in this morning's WSJ, 2nd consecutive year of Japanese trade deficit. Mainly because of an offshore earthquake causing a tsunami, and political discord with China.
Put that on your quant extrapolations.
Now, in some ways the baby boom edging off into retirement will be VERY stimulative to the economy. TONS of jobs being opened up by their retirement,
The average baby boomer without a company plan has 32k in retirement savings, with a company plan 88k. That is a whole 6k a year for average lifespan. With that kind of nest egg when do you suppose they will be retiring and opening up all these jobs?
When they turn 65 and can get social security and medicare.
It won't have any real impact on the jobs market though.
Gold:
It's in a standard consolidation that's happened at least 3 times since 2001. It's just now entering the timing band to break out again.
K-cycle:
Yes I thought they were the length of a human life. I don't where people got the 70s from.
Points 1-7:
Everyone will think all those things are going to happen, causing the dollar to tank and gold to explode for a couple years. In the end only the minor ones will happen this time... Several year consolidation, solidify another level lower living standards level for all. Then come some more off the list, and then worse than the list. Rinse, Repeat for a decade or two.
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Here is a chain of events which will serve as a catalyst for the next wave down:
1. Fiscal cliff will be kicked down the road, again.
2. Look for S&P downgrading US rating by February, 2013.
3. As a result China/Japan/OPEC selling bonds en mass.
4. As a result, FED to raise QE-infinity to $60B/month, which also will include T-bill buying.
5. Banks, realizing that FED is the buyer of last resort, dump the bonds at the auction.
6. Interest rates soar.
7. Housing tanks.
YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
#housing