patrick.net

Immigrants. They still have a lot of kids.

We'll need to find jobs for them, but I can't see a way to meaningfully grow the younger demographics without immigration playing a large role.

Another Chicken Little non-crisis to get some kind of funding for the non-problem?

I just don't believe it, schools swarming with illegals, no jobs for the young people that are already here. Young people are the most likely to leave the state for work opportunities.

The Lucille Packard Foundation sounds like it is staffed by airheads. Airheads who are taking it for a ride along with the usual left leaning academics. Somebody's methodologies and the conclusions they draw from it really suck.

Treasure and nurture our poor oppressed, dwindling young. BuLLshit!

Gen X/Yers won't be able to retire. Ever. Too poor.

A lot of the boomers won't be able to retire. I know guys who plan on going until at least 72.

Reverting back to pre WWII, when people just worked until they were too sick to continue to do so, retirement by modern standards was uncommon.

Work til you drop and devil take the hindmost.

The homes in CA will all sell for 10 cents on the dollar.

there will always be a market in california. it will just change. mostly mexican and indian buyers

Call it Crazy says

Ceffer says

A lot of the boomers won't be able to retire. I know guys who plan on going until at least 72.

Reverting back to pre WWII, when people just worked until they were too sick to continue to do so, retirement by modern standards was uncommon.

Work til you drop and devil take the hindmost.

Yup, and instead of a pension plan, you will get a nice pine box to get buried in!!

And they will probably be buried in the back yard.

zzyzzx says

Gen X/Yers won't be able to retire. Ever. Too poor.

If boomers (who had every opportunity to save for retirement) aren't retiring until way after their 70s, then I suspect this to be true as well.

The population is still growing but the rate is now quite low. In some areas of the country it is simply just moving around rather than new people moving in.

A simple solution could be to just retain those that attend higher education or employment here.

A decade ago I knew a man from Japan majoring in IT and even though he had been in the country eight years and the demand was there there were no attempts to offer any form of incentives to have him stay.

I can tell you being in the Boston metro area that if all students stayed after graduation we would have a much higher population. Ample amounts of international students simply leave to their home countries. Intelligence squared made the argument that ph.d international students upon graduating should automatically get a green card.

I don't expect the Gen whine'ers to ever be in the Homebuyers equation. Not until further notice.

mdovell says

The population is still growing but the rate is now quite low. In some areas of the country it is simply just moving around rather than new people moving in.

A simple solution could be to just retain those that attend higher education or employment here.

A decade ago I knew a man from Japan majoring in IT and even though he had been in the country eight years and the demand was there there were no attempts to offer any form of incentives to have him stay.

I can tell you being in the Boston metro area that if all students stayed after graduation we would have a much higher population. Ample amounts of international students simply leave to their home countries. Intelligence squared made the argument that ph.d international students upon graduating should automatically get a green card.

There are not enough good jobs for the native Ph.D.s This is just more bullshit to drive wages down even further.

Goran_K says

If boomers (who had every opportunity to save for retirement) aren't retiring until way after their 70s, then I suspect this to be true as well.

There are a select few boomers who will have the option to hold off retiring until their 70s. The job market is cruel and will kick you to the street for a younger, healthier 20 something who will work for less.

And there are only so many openings as Wal-Mart for greeters.

More likely, Boomers will have to cut back dramatically.. and those dreams of traveling the world in their golden years will be replaced with eating cat food at home.

CaptainShuddup says

I don't expect the Gen whine'ers to ever be in the Homebuyers equation. Not until further notice.

As one of those Gen X/Y'ers I completely agree. It's going to take a small miracle to save for a hearty down (while renting) and then find a starter home in a decent area that isn't going to be gobbled up by cash investors overnight.

I don't know if that's whining, but at times it certainly feels like everyone was playing musical chairs for the last decade and I've suddenly found myself without a seat.

CMY says

it certainly feels like everyone was playing musical chairs for the last decade and I've suddenly found myself without a seat.

No problem, I'll let you rent my seat for as long as you need it :'P

Cash investers? I doubt many people have even $10,000 in cash, much less 300 or 400,000 to buy an overpriced rental house?
The whole system that now encourages investors to buy and keep houses in impacted areas such as the bay area should be reversed 180 degrees. Pass laws that discourage this behavior and make it very expensive for investors to participate in these real estate markets. Only then will the sharks will stay out and leave the houses to people who live and work there.

Zakrajshek says

Cash investers? I doubt many people have even $10,000 in cash, much less 300 or 400,000 to buy an overpriced rental house?

You'd be surprised. I'm also not talking about a 300-400k place, I'm talking 200-300k, something that grandma left to the kids (and needs a lot of work).

Here's a great example: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Torrance/1104-Amapola-Ave-90501/home/7650922 (check out the sales history!)

It's no joke. I follow the listings/sales around this area pretty religiously. MANY have been closing escrow in a week.

My point is that at 280k the above place is perfect for us. Hastily remodeled and back on the market (six weeks later) at 499k? I'll pass.. but some sucker just had to have it.

There is 9.8 Million people in Los Angeles County.

Certainly some competition for homes.

In my opinion, time to face the truth, we were all hoping for '10 cents on the dollar' California homes so we could buy and sell later. Well, didn't happen.

Time to figure out the next move.

CaptainShuddup says

I don't expect the Gen whine'ers to ever be in the Homebuyers equation.

Look up what the term Gen X and Y means. Gen X is from the early 60's through mid 70's. Gen Y is from the late 70's-80's.

Guess I disproved that assertion: I am a very very early Gen Y'er and bought a house this summer.

As far as Boomers, well the average boomer has saved less than $40k for retirement. A lot of them will never be able to retire. And as far as who will buy California homes? Well there's also a TON of people from other states who move here as well. Its not like the state is going to become abandoned. Where would you rather live: the rust belt or Cali?

David9 says

In my opinion, time to face the truth, we were all hoping for '10 cents on the dollar' California homes so we could buy and sell later. Well, didn't happen.

I totally agree, just speaking about my observations from a generational standpoint. The affordable single-family starter home is going extinct.