patrick.net

robertoaribas says

They escaped out of Cuba to NYC with nothing...

cost of living a tad high seems like an itty bitty thing.

Don't get me wrong, Rob -- I'm not comparing the plight of the American Indian to a guy who can't buy a 900 sq ft shanty in SF for less than 700K. I'm just sympathetic to being born too early/too late. I have been alive a long time, and I can see in vivid detail how the boomers fucked up a good thing.

The power of Monetary Policy, as the great Polanyi illustrated some 70 years ago in his book The Great Transformation, should not be underestimated. It rends and puts asunder everything from business concerns to marriages and household formation. It is truly a destructive force.

BTW -- I WILL live in Cuba one day...I WILL!!!

robertoaribas says

I knew Phoenix was hot when i moved here, so I just deal with it... like a man.

Spending the summers inside a nice 68F climate controlled A/V loaded playground of course.

JodyChunder says

BTW -- I WILL live in Cuba one day...I WILL!!!

Why?

New Renter says

Why?

I rode my bike down there from Texas the summer of '58 and loved it better than anyplace else on Earth -- despite a nasty hurricane and the turmoils unfolding at the time. This was just before the shit hit the fan down there.

Ever since, Cuba has never been far from my thoughts. And I will get back there before I keel, even if I have to pay a fine.

Kevin says

Its expensive because of all of the childless, drinks, single professionals, and tech money.

You neglected to mention, the rich expats from rich families from Asia.

bmwman91 says

Insert buzz-words

I thought it was, "leverage" buzz words.

E-man says

but it hurts because we're no where near the top of the market.

No no -- you are, pretty much...

Victorville on the other hand, is just getting started!

Kevin says

Its expensive because of all of the childless, drinks, single professionals, and tech money.

Same reasons why Manhattan is so expensive, just with engineers instead of bankers.

Agree. In Manhattan, when someone grew-up to have children and have resources is leaving to buy a house in suburban.

E-man says

LOL! Thanks for the laugh. You're funny uncle Jody. :)

That's Daddy Chunderâ„¢ -- and I wasn't joking. Victoriville is up 20% YOY, and things are looking good for the next several years before I finally offload this crap and retire. IOW, my cha-ching is bigger than your cha-ching!

https://www.evernote.com/shard/s1/sh/d5b94e7b-a9cf-4358-b828-1c12f950d72f/76287f41f73c48de4a9147392999d1f7

On the flip side, do you actually think you're going to experience linearly upward appreciation where you are? If so, what will drive it? And don't you goddamn dare say Chinese investors!

bmwman91 says

via web-ad revenue

na... much is still product / services in SW and HW. Ad Revenue is two small to make a difference... there is no unlimited ad revenue market worth trillions and trillions.

we do make what the customer needs, enterprise systems, much is for running business.

Kevin says

Its expensive because of all of the childless, drinks, single professionals, and tech money.

like it was back in the 70s 80s and 90s. Oh yea... NOT !

E-man says

Santa Clara County is up 28% YOY on SFHs and 30% YOY on condos.

It's primarily just a FED induced RE rally, though. Granted, it's the same thing driving prices up here in Victorville, but unlike SCC, Victorville actually hit a deep trough from which it is now surging (only to trough again, of course). I bought in the trough, and am enjoying the wave. Admit it! You wish you'd listened to me and bought yourself some desert parcels! FOOL! ; D

E-man says

The next market top is 2018-2020. :)

Did your crystal ball come with a user's manual? Did you ever read it? Minus the odd rally here and there, it's diminishing returns/consolidation/consumer deleveraging for the rest of your life, junior. I know the windows in the casino make it look like the party'll never end, but...I'm sorry...

E-man says

Looks like we have been adding quite a bit of jobs here in the Silicon Valley. The traffic is getting worse by the days.

That's a pretty folksy metric for job growth! The traffic was insane in Florida when I was there for a few weeks two years back and their unemployment was something like 12%!

I see a big difference between the parabolic growth in tech in the 90's and the growth we're seeing today. The overall compensation is still very competitive in order to attract talent, but it just doesn't go as far (gas in '99 was .87 cents). Besides, much of the really smart/savvy employees (typically the highest compensated) tend to split Siilycon Valley as soon as they can cash in their chips. That's because it's a boring ass city. I see this as a growing trend going forward. All that will be left aside from a few diehards are the also-rans and investor nerds.

E-man says

Uncle Jody,

DADDY! I've never been anybody's uncle!

I made an offer on a house in 2009 that ended up getting 80 offers. I made an offer on a house in 2010 that ended up selling for 35% over asking price.

26 offers? 10% over asking price? Big deal.

In SFBA: “No cash – no house amigo”.
Every broker I worked with, asked me how much cash I have.

REpro says

In SFBA: “No cash – no house amigo”.

The manipulation of consumer sentiment here is so transparent: the more expensive or exclusive you make something, the more covetous the consumer becomes. That's how you get dupe A into outbidding dupe B: by making the idea of slowly dying of boredom in a 60 year old 900 sq ft rambler in Nerdopolis seem like something downright exotic.

Victorville's looking better and better everyday, folks...

The Real estate "Bubble" isn't back, at least not for most of us. The problem with the Real Estate bubble in 2005 was all markets were way over priced, the supply shortage is mostly confined to the bay area, there certainly isn't 10 offers, with offers over assessed value for houses for sale in my area.

There is a big supply shortage being reported in every major us metro. People aren't selling.

Kevin says

There is a big supply shortage being reported in every major us metro. People aren't selling.

I drive down the street and see many "FOR SALE" signs on homes..especially on weekend..

But not listed on MLS anywhere... Pocket and Exclusive Listings.. a growing trend..

I suggest you look at if this is also true in your Metro.. I am sure you will find it true.

thomaswong.1986 says

I drive down the street and see many "FOR SALE" signs on homes..especially on weekend..

But not listed on MLS anywhere... Pocket and Exclusive Listings.. a growing trend..

I suggest you look at if this is also true in your Metro.. I am sure you will find it true.

I haven't seen this at all in my part of the East Bay.

robertoaribas says

move to a small town in the midwest, and quit bitching about how expensive the bay area is... or move to nevada or something. maybe reno, and you could fly back to the bay area, or even drive whenever you want to spend a weekend.

thats what business does.. move out of SFBA.. to North West... South West and Texas.

gregpfielding says

I haven't seen this at all in my part of the East Bay.

just saying... keep open mind about how complete these listings are.. no requirements.

thomaswong.1986 says

But not listed on MLS anywhere... Pocket and Exclusive Listings.. a growing trend..

Very true -- but this is a growing trend outside of California, too. Patrick once discussed why pocket listings were not advantageous for buyers, but I can't find the thread now.

Pocket listing is growing due to low inventory. Having own listing is like finding a golden egg now.

I predict some folks'll sure feel duped when the time comes that EVERYONE'S walking around town with one of what they thought were once so rare -- especially when they paid the concomitant premium that goes along with *RARE*

JodyChunder says

I predict some folks'll sure feel duped when the time comes that EVERYONE'S walking around town with one of what they thought were once so rare -- especially when they paid the concomitant premium that goes along with *RARE*

Yep, can happen. Like open just bought spoiled 100 years old bottle of wine.

I wonder what the "For Sale by Owner" market looks like. It was pretty rough there for awhile, because so many people had trouble selling there houses due to the rough market people started started using realtors again. If there's so many offers on anything that comes on the market, they I see little reason to use a realtor, you should be able to successfully market your house yourself.

JodyChunder says

I rode my bike down there from Texas the summer of '58 and loved it better than anyplace else on Earth -- despite a nasty hurricane and the turmoils unfolding at the time. This was just before the shit hit the fan down there.

You rode a bike from Texas to Cuba???

Joey Chunder... JC... OMG!! HE'S BACK!!!

New Renter says

You rode a bike from Texas to Cuba???

A motorbike - an oil pissing '52 AJS I traded my cousin for.

New Renter says

Joey Chunder... JC... OMG!! HE'S BACK!!!

Ol' JC is always here for you, my son.

JodyChunder says

a growing trend outside of California, too.

exactly... becoming the norm.. so all the inventory numbers have become meaningless.

thomaswong.1986 says

so all the inventory numbers have become meaningless.

Somebody just shitcanned the idea a few comments above, pointing to the fact that banks insist on a house being on the MLS for at least a week. Is this true in all states?

JodyChunder says
I'm just sympathetic to being born too early/too late. I have been alive a long time, and I can see in vivid detail how the boomers fucked up a good thing.

The power of Monetary Policy, as the great Polanyi illustrated some 70 years ago in his book The Great Transformation, should not be underestimated. It rends and puts asunder everything from business concerns to marriages and household formation. It is truly a destructive force.

Thank you. You may be the only boomer who gives a darn - thank you just the same. (:

Call it Crazy says

I drive down many side streets and see bunches of empty houses without "for sale" signs on them. There are three within one block of my house now.

The few that come on the market are mostly underwater and the owners are asking unrealistic prices for them

Crazy, what city/neighborhood is it?

JodyChunder says

pointing to the fact that banks insist on a house being on the MLS for at least a week. Is this true in all states?

god knows what their internal policies are regards listing on MLS..
more like hearsay and speculation.

robertoaribas says

good grief, my family left Barcelona and fled across the mountains into France to escape death when the fascists took over. My direct family (grandfather, grandmother) went to Cuba, where my father was born...

They escaped out of Cuba to NYC with nothing...

cost of living a tad high seems like an itty bitty thing.

That's out of touch. I would leave this mess called Silicon Valley, but it's very complicated. Everyone's story is different, you are in real estate, that's working for you - more than working you, you seem to love it, and like a religion and it has given you what you need to fill your holes. Your personal experience doesn't qualify you to judge other people's choices - it's not as simple as it looks to you in your real estate temple. Things are not black and white.

hrhjuliet says

Thank you. You may be the only boomer who gives a darn - thank you just the same. (:

Only I'm not a boomer!

JodyChunder says

the more expensive or exclusive you make something, the more covetous the consumer becomes. That's how you get dupe A into outbidding dupe B: by making the idea of slowly dying of boredom in a 60 year old 900 sq ft

yes.. you said it...

More reason to move out of the overpriced overated bay area.

thomaswong.1986 says

pointing to the fact that banks insist on a house being on the MLS for at least a week. Is this true in all states?

god knows what their internal policies are regards listing on MLS..

more like hearsay and speculation.

It's not true of every REO or every bank within California. Some will look at offers right away. Others, like Fannie Mae, often have a window for owner-occupants and then a later window for investors.

Call it Crazy says

Central New Jersey

Where exactly are you looking? I'm in central Jersey and I don't see any...

Call it Crazy says

Apparently, your not looking close enough...

Westfield isn't really central NJ..... I know you're new there... you'll
learn...

You're probably correct. I don't know where North ends and Central begins. On Craigslist, it seems that the area around me is generally listed in Central, but that's probably not the definitive guide I'll admit.

To your point--I'm sure there are people in pre-foreclosure in Jersey, but I don't see many empty houses.